Afghanistan Might Turn into the Worlds Biggest Terrorist Arms Dealer

So this means that terrorist nations will have the best equipped forces ever.

Assume that for the next quarter-century, Afghanistan will become not just the world’s training haven for Islamic terrorists, but an international, no-questions-asked, cash-on-the-barrel arms market for anti-Western terrorist cliques. 

So this means that the next terrorist attack will be with our own weapons, planes, and bombs abandoned to the Taliban who will sell them to the highest bidder. That is an incredibly depressing thought and 100% on Biden.

Scathing Account: You Can't Sink the Ship and Brag about How Many Lifeboats you Have

Yeah this has all been to clean up Biden's evacuation mess.

You don’t get to sink the ship and then brag about the number of lifeboats.

Yeah, it’s the biggest airlift in U.S. history because this is the biggest presidential screwup in U.S. history. This is a disaster of Biden’s own making, and now Psaki is boasting about how frantically they’re scrambling to clean up after Biden’s incompetence.

Bat-Mite Returns!

 This is welcome news for me as a comics fan. I actually have his first appearance in Detective Comics #267.

A new ally is about to join Wonder Woman: Bat-Mite, the Fifth-Dimensional Batman-obsessed imp. Wonder Woman #778 has a new preview from DC Comics that reveals the latest ally to assist the titular heroine on her journey, and it's a powerful character who tends to be either loved or loathed by longtime fans.

 Here is a panel from this site.

Mullen Admits he Got it Wrong on Afghanistan

 At least he is admitting that he was on the wrong side of this whole thing.

In our phone conversation the next morning, Mullen acknowledged that, back in 2009, he and all the other top officers and officials advised Obama to send 40,000 more troops to Afghanistan and to adopt a nation-building strategy. Biden was alone in calling for merely an extra 10,000 troops and to restrict their activities to training the Afghan army and fighting terrorists along the Afghan-Pakistani border. “He got it right,” Mullen said of Biden. “It would be hard to argue that [Biden’s proposal] wasn’t the right way to go.”

He said his people did not root out corruption to the extant that was needed and they built the Afghan army as a pseudo-American army that was dependent on us for close air-support, intelligence, etc. When we pulled out they either made a deal or ran for it.

You Would Figure the State Department would be Running an App Like This

This is Tech in action. Too bad the State Department seems like they don't know what they are doing in this whole mess

As the Taliban imposes its draconian rule in Kabul, residents of the city are turning to a crowdsourced public safety app to help them dodge violence, checkpoints and other threats. 

The app, called “Ehtesab,” gives iPhone and Android users real-time updates on emergencies in the city of 4.4 million, which fell to the Taliban last week. It bears a strong resemblance to Citizen, the controversial public safety app popular in US cities like New York and Los Angeles that also sends out safety alerts to nearby users.

Politico starts to Turn on the White House

It really seems like the White House is living in a different world than everyone else. They are also rapidly losing cheerleaders in the press as well.

Multiple sources point to deteriorating conditions inside the airport, including lack of power and sanitation. And tension has emerged between American troops on the ground and State Department officials trying to extract U.S. citizens and Afghan allies.

Meanwhile, the West Wing is looking increasingly disconnected from reality as the Biden White House strives to project a sense of calm competence — even as the Taliban tighten their grip on Afghanistan.

My Content is Really Old

I guess it is time for a cleanup and a refresh. Also putting my posts on Twitter needs a tune-up as well. I think the service I used ages ago is long bankrupt or bought up by big tech or something. I'll go though things and bring them as up to date as I want. 

This Atlantic Article on the Escape from Kabul nearly Had me in Tears

What a harrowing story of the will to get out and start a new life. I think this article can be parlayed into a very interesting Peter Berg movie. Also Julie Kornfeld, Khan's lawyer at the International Refugee Assistance Project needs to win some kind of reward.

On Wednesday I was surprised to hear from Kornfeld that Khan and his family had gone back to the airport again at six in the morning. Shops, banks, and ATMs had closed down because of looting, and Khan had no money in his pocket. The family left their small travel bags with a food peddler near the airport and waded into the crowd with only the clothes they were wearing, along with some water and biscuits, and their documents, hidden under Khan’s wife’s burka. They had decided that they would stay at the airport all day and all night. They planned to remain there until August 31, the deadline Biden had given for the U.S. evacuation. They’d stay at the airport until they got out or died. “She was giving energy to me,” Khan later said of his wife. “She told me that we should not lose our hopes.”

Are there Leaders Left in America?

 Very interesting article from Substack about the how America is changing.

Our elites’ dereliction of duty, their forgetting — about who they were supposed to be and, just as important, what America was supposed to be — is mostly to blame for the ocean of inanity that has engulfed us. The multiplying stupidities. The mythologies we promulgate online unironically or strategically. The preeners. The pronoun displayers. The opportunists. Michael Moore with his mindless Instagram post about everyone having their own Taliban. 

This failure of American elites is something that will be a problem for a long time to come. It is just difficult to trust people who let things get as bad as they are now. There is a feeling that the institutions are starting to come apart and the people in charge don't seem to care. 

Biden's callowness in this whole thing really hit me. He was supposed to be the compassionate candidate but these last few weeks certainly changed peoples minds about that.

Restarting my Blog

This whole fall of Afghanistan thing has made me want to start getting in there and commenting again. I also wanted to save for posterity interesting articles about the stock market and current affairs that I am coming across in somewhere other than my Chrome Reading List area. 

A new Exchange in Town: The MEMEX

I'm glad to see E-Trade as part of the group putting this thing in place:

The new venue is called Members Exchange, or MEMX. Nine banks, brokerages and other firms including Morgan Stanley, Fidelity Investments and Citadel Securities will maintain control over MEMX. MEMX investors also include Bank of America Merrill Lynch and UBS, as well as retail brokers Charles Schwab, E-Trade and TD Ameritrade.

New Years Resolutions and Goals for 2019

I might as well write these down instead of keeping them in my head:

Resolutions for 2019

1. Be Nicer: I have a tendency to be angry and misanthropic while envying people who are naturally good-natured. I will try to emulate them more and have a generally positive attitude more often 

2. Laugh More: I will watch more comedies than Horror movies. Will go out of my way to yuk it up and make the people I love figuratively split their sides.

3. Stay generally peaceful: I will try not to get angry and hold grudges. Let it all go and move on to the next thing with happiness in my heart.

4. Try to take alcohol medicinally: I will try to move away from being a teetotaler and try to imbibe a bit more so frequently. I will try an expensive single-malt Scotch at least once and enjoy it.

5. Not eat so much: I pride myself on the ability to eat large piles of food. I will instead eat just the tasty stuff and stay pleasantly full. I will eat a bit more greens and fruit as well. I will also eat more sweets as well


Goals for 2019

1. Buy a new car with 100% cash. I got the cash just need to buy the car.

2. Go to the dentist. Haven't been for years and know it will be a horror show in there. But I need to get it done.

3. Buy a new pair of glasses. My old pair is actually covered with scratches and I can barely see out of them.

4. Find a 2 bagger stock. Hopefully we will have good growth in 2019 and dodge a recession. A nice upward move will make America a much happier place.

5. Do art. I have the supplies I just need time to sit down and do it. I will make that time.

2018 Posts

Wow I did less than 10 posts. Will do much better than this in 2019.

2018 Predictions: It Has to be a Better Year than 2018.

Politics

1. There will be relentless probes, subpoenas, allegations, committees and everything into the White House. It will all be for naught as Trump wriggles out of everything. They will call him the Teflon Don after this.

2. The Mueller probe will be find nothing and no collusion will be charged. It will all be an exercise in nothing and the Dems will quickly forget it has happened.

3. Gridlock will paralyze Washington and not much of anything will get done.

4. Growth will slow but we will not have a recession. We will get a China deal and it will be thin gruel and be the kind of thing that we would have got without trade tensions. Trump will pound his chest saying it was the best trade deal ever done.

5. No infrastructure deal and immigration will still stay an issue.

6. There will be 12 Democratic challengers and 2 GOP primary challengers going into 2020. The horse-race will start even earlier then ever before. Hillary will not run.

World

1. The Syrian war will end with some sort of peace as Russia and Iran holds the South and the Saudis and Iraq hold the Northeast. The massacre of the Kurds does not happen.

2. A peace deal is done with the Taliban and peace reigns in that country for the first time in decades.

3. The fear of terrorism will start to subside some as fewer attacks are carried out.

4. World leaders will continue to distrust and talk crap about Trump. However the world will start to move toward a populism as Germany moves away from Merkle and France moves away from Macron. Brexit will cost the Torries their position as Labor once again gains power. Without Corbyn. 

5. China becomes the most important movie market by far with America taking 2nd fiddle. Every every big movie opens in China first and America limps along afterward

Economic Predictions

S&P 500:        3,100        
Dow:             26,500           
NASDAQ:       7,000      
Russell 2000: 1,680   

Crude Oil:         $55           
Gold:              $1210              
EUR/Dollar:    $1.09      
10 Year Bond:  2.32     

Sports Predictions:

NFL: Chicago Bears    
NBA: Milwaukee (Greek Freak becomes the new LeBron)
MLB: Houston Astros
Premier League: Manchester City
Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund
NCAA Football: Clemson Tigers
NCAA Basketball: Michigan

Top 5 Grossing Movies:

1. Avengers: Endgame
2. Toy Story 4
3. Captain Marvel
4. Star Wars Episode IX
5. Lego Movie 2

2018 a Look Back

Well I haven't blogged much in 2018 since I have been using Twitter much more. Here is my Twitter handle: @Joemama75. But I will do much more in 2019 I think. In any case here is a look back at the 2018 Predictions.

Politics

1. The Dems will win a few seats in the midterms but it won't be a blue wave like they think. The Senate will be split 50/50 with Pence being the swing vote. There is an actual call for bipartisanship but only a few things get done.

Well this was an epic fail. The Dems won the House fairly handily and and the GOP added seats in the Senate. Bipartisanship remains a dirty word and few things did get done.

2. DACA gets done within a larger fight for immigration reform. It is mostly used as a bargaining chip to get the wall build. Trump settles for a partial win with an electronic wall instead of an actual physical wall. He calls it the "greatest wall ever built." The Chinese scoff.

No DACA. So fail this one. We are shut down over a piddly ass $5 billion in wall funding.

3. The infrastructure bill gets passed but it is far short of the $1 trillion dollars that was called for in the Trump campaign. The GOP cannot come out against it as deficit hawks after a $1.5 trillion dollar tax cut.

No Infrastructure bill.

4. Sexual allegations sweep through Washington and claims a number of high profile Congress-critters. However, there is a backlash as the accused go on the offensive asking for their due process rights. Only a handful actual resign. The sexual allegations move to the sports world as a new wave of revulsion grips America. 

Got this one. But only a few people (Al Frankin) actually resigned. Also the sports world remains fairly untouched be #MeToo

5. Trumps tweets become less important as America enjoys the prosperity that the tax cuts bring in. Outrage turns to ephemera as things like Prince Harry's wedding overshadows Trump hate. Colbert and other Trump-haters ratings dip.   

This would have been true if the year ended around September. However, Jay Powell and a few good China tariffs cost us the gains for the year. Colbert has dropped to 2nd place however.

World

1. There are talks between North Korea and the US brokered by Dennis Rodman of all people. There is a "Nixon goes to China" moment as Trump and Kim meet in Beijing. A deal is struck as North Korea backs down. There is no hot war in Asia.

Got this one but it was Trump goes to Singapore instead. No North Korea deal though.

2. Saudis and Iran start to move away from a strict interpretation of Islam and start to move toward a rapprochement. They both move to diversify away from oil with Saudi Aramco's IPO being one of the biggest of all time. Mohammad Bin Salman becomes the man of the year.

Salman could have had this if not for the extra-judicious killing and trying to cover it up. The bonesaw-heard-round-the-world cost him and his nation big time.

3. Terror attacks and warfare with the Islamic world starts to slow considerably. The world moves into a more peaceful period.

Hmm, we are a bit more peaceful as major wars wind down. Also terrorism and ISIS are on the run.

4. European Countries start to cut taxes to compete with America. This creates a global positive feedback loop that lifts all boats. Economic growth is unheard of since the 50s as capital starts to flow all over the place. This causes an inflation scare that takes the market down in March. However, it recovers and it sees highs it has never seen in decades.

This was a fail. Brexit absorbs Europe and climate change tax hikes cost Macron big time. Growth stays fairly tepid.

5. Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies crash as everyone jams the exits at the same time. This causes another market pullback but it soon recovers and reaches long term highs again.

Got this one. Bitcoin is down big for the year.

Economic Predictions

S&P 500: 3,000         2506 (big miss)        
Dow: 27,000              23,327 (another big miss) 
NASDAQ: 7,100        6,635 (0 for 3)
Russell 2000: 1,650  1,348 (yup) 
Bitcoin: $800             $3,972 (not really a crash but way off its highs)

Crude Oil: $68           $45.41 (here was a crash)
Gold: $1320               $1286 (fairly close)
EUR/Dollar:   $1.10    $1.15 (closer)  
10 Year Bond: 2.55     2.68 % (just a bit off)

Sports Predictions:

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles             Eagles: Got this one  
NBA: Boston Celtics                     Golden State Again 
MLB: New York Yankees              Red Sox (ugh)
Premier League: Arsenal              Manchester City
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich          Yup Munich again 
NCAA Football: Georgia Bulldogs Alabama 
NCAA Basketball: Duke                Villanova

Top 5 Grossing Movies:

1. Avengers: Infinity War  (1st)
2. Incredibles 2                 (4th)
3. Deadpool 2                   (7th)
4. Black Panther               (2nd)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (bomb-a-roo)

There is No Forgiveness in Woke Transgressions

This article really made me think.

By mentioning forgiveness, MacDonald reveals the biggest flaw in our new woke morality. The Church of Social Justice has more rules than a monastery during Lent and the list grows daily. But unlike traditional morality, there is no path to redemption.

The ancient Hebrews confessed the community’s sin, placed it onto a scapegoat, and restored the flawed people. Early Christians confessed to their priest or bishop, perhaps did some acts of penance, and were redeemed in the eyes of the church. For especially egregious and public sins, the process could be quite involved. But the model held across time and faith: confess to wrongdoing, repent, and be forgiven.

That really is true. Hardwick and Rosanne had their careers destroyed after a screw-up. In the case of Hardwick we don't even know who was telling the truth or not. I think there needs to be some sort of period of contrition and we can welcome them back into the fold. Maybe use a sliding scale depending on the crime. Weinstein gets 100 years while Aziz Ansari gets 6 months or something. In any case I think there should be second chances in America.

Hiya Blogger https://goo.gl/6ZEaS7 joe_michels

I'm loving @Axios: It really feels like an Old School Newspaper

Well I have been using Axios as my front page news source now that Yahoo News seems to be liberal screed all day long. I love how quick the news bites are and they link to source material pretty easily. It also feels like they are sticking to "just the facts" more than any other news source. I tried Google News but there just seems to be too much of the same thing. Like very similar story seems to be shown over and over with little variation. I do still use them from time to time. However, Axios seems to have a mix of different stories that don't seem to be slanted one way or the other. I'll keep using it and see how it goes.

2018 Predictions: It's Going to be an Even Better Year than 2017!

Well its that time of year again. I will do a slate of predictions and see if they come true at the end of 2018. 

Politics

1. The Dems will win a few seats in the midterms but it won't be a blue wave like they think. The Senate will be split 50/50 with Pence being the swing vote. There is an actual call for bipartisanship but only a few things get done.

2. DACA gets done within a larger fight for immigration reform. It is mostly used as a bargaining chip to get the wall build. Trump settles for a partial win with an electronic wall instead of an actual physical wall. He calls it the "greatest wall ever built." The Chinese scoff.

3. The infrastructure bill gets passed but it is far short of the $1 trillion dollars that was called for in the Trump campaign. The GOP cannot come out against it as deficit hawks after a $1.5 trillion dollar tax cut.

4. Sexual allegations sweep through Washington and claims a number of high profile Congress-critters. However, there is a backlash as the accused go on the offensive asking for their due process rights. Only a handful actual resign. The sexual allegations move to the sports world as a new wave of revulsion grips America. 

5. Trumps tweets become less important as America enjoys the prosperity that the tax cuts bring in. Outrage turns to ephemera as things like Prince Harry's wedding overshadows Trump hate. Colbert and other Trump-haters ratings dip.   

World

1. There are talks between North Korea and the US brokered by Dennis Rodman of all people. There is a "Nixon goes to China" moment as Trump and Kim meet in Beijing. A deal is struck as North Korea backs down. There is no hot war in Asia.

2. Saudis and Iran start to move away from a strict interpretation of Islam and start to move toward a rapprochement. They both move to diversify away from oil with Saudi Aramco's IPO being one of the biggest of all time. Mohammad Bin Salman becomes the man of the year.

3. Terror attacks and warfare with the Islamic world starts to slow considerably. The world moves into a more peaceful period.

4. European Countries start to cut taxes to compete with America. This creates a global positive feedback loop that lifts all boats. Economic growth is unheard of since the 50s as capital starts to flow all over the place. This causes an inflation scare that takes the market down in March. However, it recovers and it sees highs it has never seen in decades.

5. Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies crash as everyone jams the exits at the same time. This causes another market pullback but it soon recovers and reaches long term highs again.

Economic Predictions

S&P 500: 3,000         
Dow: 27,000           
NASDAQ: 7,100      
Russell 2000: 1,650   
Bitcoin: $800

Crude Oil: $68           
Gold: $1320              
EUR/Dollar:   $1.10      
10 Year Bond: 2.55     

Sports Predictions:

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles    
NBA: Boston Celtics
MLB: New York Yankees
Premier League: Arsenal
Bundesliga: Bayern Munich
NCAA Football: Georgia Bulldogs
NCAA Basketball: Duke

Top 5 Grossing Movies:

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Incredibles 2
3. Deadpool 2
4. Black Panther
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

2017 Predictions a Look back.

Here are how my predictions for 2017 came out.

Politics

1. Donald Trump will have a whirlwind 100 days and will have one of the more successful runs in modern times. He leaves much of the heavily lifting to his talented cabinet and goes after minutiae with his Twitter account and phone. There will be a rise of the Trump Twitter-ologists like the Kremlin-ologists of old who pick over his Tweets looking for hidden meanings and such. All in all at the end of the year America would be well on the way to prosperity that it hasn't seen in more than 16 years.

Got this one correct except his 100 days was a whirlwind of suck. He was a divisive force with his Twitter driving the MSM crazy. People do watch the Twitter like a pack of crazy people as well.

2. There is a huge fight over the next Supreme Court nominee as the Dems make their stand on this issue. There is much character assassination and back-and-forth but Scalia's seat goes to another person in his same mold but far younger. This person turns out to not be as conservative as many think.

Hmm time will tell with Neil Gorsuch but he pretty much skated in because the Senate got rid of their gentleman rules. 

3. Black Lives matter leaves the stage as the racial animus in the country slowly recedes. By the end of the year there are less cop deaths and less deaths by violence by young African Americans. Crime levels slow go back to normal as the cops go back about their business with less fear.

Black Lives matter is still around but their voice seems much muted. Also police deaths went from 141 to 128 so that is certainly positive.

4. The main stream media suffers cracks that they never had before as CNN, Fox, and MSNBC and the various newspapers become less important to the zeitgeist. Viewership is way down as American's enjoys the prosperity that the Trump era brings in. Many Americans are energized as consumer confidence and other measures are way up by the end of the year.

The MSM is pretty much morphed into the opposition party for Trump. However I was wrong that viewership is down. It seems to be way up for certain networks.

5. Hillary Clinton is not hear from very much but Obama seems to be everywhere as the left holds on to the last popular thing they seem to have left. Young Bernie supporters slowly remake the Democrat party as they stay involved in the process.

Hillary was woefully front and center while Obama seems to have vanished. I got this one wrong.

World

1. Russia moves back in the Great Power spotlight as they now have a man in the White House that apologizes for their misdeeds. They solidify gains in the Levant and form a partnership with the US to eliminate ISIS. Russia slowly moves their neighbors into their Sphere of Influence by undermining elections to but pro-Putin people in charge. Russia deftly plays the Great Game and looks powerful and influential by the end of the year.

This one is spot on since ISIS is no longer a major threat. The Russians have moved right back into the Great Power status since they have moved into every Democrats worst nightmare. After "stealing the election."

2. North Korea collapses as Kim tries to hold onto power by eliminating everyone he can. It is not enough as the Red Chinese backed junta takes control of the Hermit Kingdom. The Red Chinese dominate North Korea and move their Sphere of Influence outward.

North Korea is still in the hands of a "rocketman" Kim. I do think the Chinese are operating behind the scenes to make North Korea back down though. 

3. The Red Chinese still rattle the sabre in the South China sea and various places in the world but there is a rapprochement with the Trump White House (that is still weird to say) by the end of the year. The USA and China work on a long term trade and security deal that is unprecedented. There is no Trade War and oddly enough Trump turns out to be the best thing Red China ever got in the White House.

No Trade war so far and Trump and Xi Jinping seem to get along pretty well. There was some tough tweets for a while but that seems to have died down.

4. The Syrian Civil war is totally over by the end of the year as ISIS is destroyed by Russia and the USA working with Turkey. Assad stays in power and rebuilding starts in earnest as Russian petro-dollars pour into a solid place on the Mediterranean. Catherine the Greats dream is finally realized by the richest KGB agent to have ever lived.

Syrian Civil war is over with Russia, Assad, the US, and a few tough Kurds whipped ISIS and sent them packing. Now what will peace look like?

5. Israel and the UN continue to spar but the problem seems to recede by the end of the year. Israel and the Palestinians find themselves in peace for much of the year.

Other than a few thrown rocks it seems that there is relative peace in the region. I did not see us moving our embassy to Jerusalem though. That is pretty wild and might actual lead to a peace deal now that America is 100% pro-Israel.

Economic Predictions:

S&P 500: 2750          2673
Dow: 22,000            24719 
NASDAQ: 5800         6903
Russell 2000: 1510   1535 

Crude Oil: $75           $ 60.10
Gold: $1200               $ 1305
EUR/Dollar: $0.98      $ 1.20
10 Year Bond: 2.75     $ 2.40

Sports Predictions:

NFL: Patriots    Patriots
NBA: Golden State Warriors Golden State
MLB: Cleveland Indians  Houston Astros
Premier League: Chelsea Chelsea
Bundesliga: Hertha Berlin Bayern Munich
NCAA Football: Clemson Clemson
NCAA Basketball: UCLA   North Carolina