Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Walgreen Does What Obama Promises

It seems that sometimes private enterprise does a lot more good then they are given credit for. I shop at Walgreens just about everyday to buy my lunch or snacks. Too bad there is no Take-Care clinic in that store.

Individuals must prove they are receiving or will receive government unemployment benefits in order to qualify for the free services, which are being offered weekdays from 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. If a participant finds a new job or health insurance, that person and his or her family will no longer qualify.

Also Quest Diagnostics is chipping in with some freebies as well.

Quest Diagnostics Incorporated (NYSE: DGX: 47.31, 0.18, 0.38%), the world's leading provider of diagnostic testing, information and services, will provide strep and urine cultures and other select laboratory testing services for free to qualified patients served through the Take Care Recovery Plan, which is an offer, announced by Walgreens (NYSE, Nasdaq: WAG) and Take Care Health Systems, to provide free health care services at Take Care Clinics. The offer is available to qualified patients, including Take Care Clinic patients, and their immediate family members, who lose their job on or after March 31, 2009, and are uninsured. The offer runs through the end of the year.

Friday, March 27, 2009

KB Homes Builds Houses For A New America: Is it the Rise of the Netbook Home?

It seems that the McMansion may be dead according to this article. It also seems that KB Home is finally starting to sell more houses but they are much smaller and more affordable according to their earnings statements.

Half of all KB Home's sales this year are expected to come from its new Open Series blueprint, a smaller and less expensive model the company unveiled to compete with discounted foreclosed homes. KB Home is offering the Open Series in 30 communities, including some in southern California, North Carolina, Tucson, Ariz., Orlando, Fla., and Houston.

"Homes must change with the times," Mezger said. "It is not simply about reducing prices. It is about increasing value to the consumer."

These smaller homes helped make new home buyers account for 70% of KB Homes revenue this past quarter. These homes show that there is pretty decent demand out there for the right kind of home.

It kind of reminds me of the rise of the Netbook. For a while we had these massive laptops that cost thousands of dollars that made DVDs, played games, allowed you to edit movies, etc. HP and Dell's margins were great and people were buying them like crazy. Then when hard times hit people finally understood that for $300 you can do everything that you actually used laptops to do like browsing, email, carrying the thing in your bag, etc.

These Open Series blueprint homes are kind of the same thing. They hopefully get home buyers back to what they *should* be looking for in a home. A nice place to keep your stuff and live your life while you raise your family.

Your home is not an investment you can flip. It is not a piggy bank you can tap to finance a lifestyle on 100% credit. It is certainly is not a place where you can pretend to be rich and famous. That means no more eating off of a granite countertop, getting beers from your Sub-Zero freezer, and pooping in one of your 6 toilets while you forget about your interest-only ARM resetting next month. It seems fitting that the Netbook Age should follow so closely after the Age of Excess.

Reid Tells MoveOn to Drop Ads that Go After Dem Moderates

I think Reid is afraid that these people will jump ship and join with moderate republicans to from a powerful voting block.

Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev. wants liberal groups who are targeting Democrats over the budget to back down.

The left-leaning Americans United for Change and MoveOn.Org have been airing advertisements on the radio and Internet in a dozen states that are home to both Republican and Democratic lawmakers who have not made up their minds about whether to back Obama's s slightly pared-down budget proposals next week.

I think it would be up to these Senate moderates to keep our debt from choking us out in less then a decade. I mean the Red Chinese have only so much patience when it comes to this kind of thing. I mean with high debt levels there comes high interest rates that make the value of their trillion dollars in bonds that much lower. So I think it comes down to Obama wanting alot of fancy spending and the Red Chinese shaking their heads "No."

Thursday, March 26, 2009

GOP Pushes Their Own Budget Plan

At last the so-called "Party of No" is morphing into the party with their own plan.

So the entire House GOP elected leadership will join Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the ranking member of the Budget Committee, for Thursday’s event. “It’s the old ‘I want to see it in writing,’” said a top House Republican official. “They’re going to see it in writing.”

Another official said: “We need to hold something up and say, ‘Here are our charts. Here are our graphs. It’s real.’”

Now they need to hit hard on the part about Congress stripping the tax cut for 95% of Americans from their version of the budget. They need to offer a steeper tax cut for those 95% and say that the Dems want to tax you to death when you can barely keep your head above water.

Then say something like "We are following plans from that great tax-cutter: Bill Clinton. You thought I was going to say Ronald Reagan right?" Then point out that the Clinton's 1997 tax cuts ushered in years of prosperity and growth. In other words use Clinton against the Dems in order to bolster the pro-tax cut position. So whenever someone squawks about "tax cuts for the wealthy" just say Bill Clinton understood that cutting taxes for everyone creates prosperity.

About 57% of the net Clinton tax cuts would go to families in the middle and fourth income quintiles. This compares to only 18% under the House tax plan and 21% under the Senate plan.

Taxpayers in the bottom 40% of the income scale would receive, on average, no benefit from Clinton's proposed tax cuts. Those in the bottom 20% would pay higher taxes, and those in the second 20% would pay about the same as now. The small income tax cuts in these groups are more than offset by higher excise taxes, primarily on airline tickets and cigarettes. In this regard, the Clinton plan is similar to its congressional counterparts.

The top 5% of taxpayers would receive 13% of the tax cuts under the Clinton plan. In contrast, the House plan offers 56% of its tax cuts to the top 5%, and the Senate plans offers 53%.

Red Chinese Say "Let a Million Solar Panels Bloom!"

It seems that the Red Chinese are getting serious when it comes to a renewable future.

According to a statement on a Chinese government website, solar projects larger than 50 kilowatts of output will be eligible for a subsidy of about $2.90 per watt.

"We believe meaningful upside potential exists if government support for domestic solar sector continues," a Barclays analyst wrote in a research note, adding the move could boost Chinese demand by about 200 megawatts starting in the second half of 2009, a nearly four-fold increase from Barclays' projection for this year.

That $2.90 per watt figure is supposed to cover 60% of the cost of installing these things. So suddenly the biggest market in the world is now subsidizing the cost of their own solar panels. The Chinese don't do these things by half measures and the potential for solar penetration in China is vast. Imagine how many solar plants could be built in the Gobi desert alone?

This should be great news for Chinese solar companies which have been hammered with both Germany and Spain falling into recessions. Chinese solar stocks which went ape today. Shorts get out now because the solar space will jump off this news.

Chinese-based companies were the biggest gainers, with Trina Solar Ltd (TSL.N) up 40 percent at $12.14 per share, Suntech Power Holdings (STP.N), up 40 percent at $10.96, LDK Solar Co (LDK.N), up 36 percent at $8.00, Yingli Green Energy (YGE.N) up 39 percent at $5.75, Solarfun Power Holdings (SOLF.O) up 26 percent at $4.48 and Canadian Solar (CSIQ.O), up 23 percent at $5.95

White House Debuts Financial Overhaul: My Comments

I think we may see a totally different Wall Street in a few years depending on what Congress passes in the next few weeks. Here are the major changes that the Treasury is putting forward and my comments.

• Imposing tougher standards on financial institutions judged to be so big that their failure would represent a risk to the entire system.

I wonder if this will stop certain companies from merging into a "system risking" company? I can see the SEC trying to stop certain companies from merging on the basis of the "too big to fail" rule. So the days of an American company like Citi or AIG becoming a world financial behemoth might be over.

• Extending federal regulations for the first time to all trading in financial derivatives, exotic financial instruments such as credit default swaps that were blamed for much of the damage in the meltdown.

This is one of those things that should have been done years ago and could have saved us from the meltdown. No market that trades in the trillions of dollars should go unregulated. I'm sure someone might have caught AIG loading up on those CDS (and shorted AIG to the hilt) years ago if this market was more transparent.

• Requiring hedge funds and other private pools of capital, including private equity funds and venture capital funds, to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission if their assets exceed a certain size. The threshold amount has yet to be determined.

I wonder if this will drive the hedge fund industry offshore in order to avoid this requirement and still keep their level of secrecy? If it is worded to say that any hedge fund trading in a US market (or that hold equities or debt in American companies) must register then they might not have a choice. This rule might drive many pools of capital to domicile in Switzerland instead of the US.

• Creating a systemic risk regulator to monitor the biggest institutions. Geithner did not designate where such authority should reside, but the administration is expected to support awarding this power to the Federal Reserve.

I wonder what this departments job entails? Will they step in whenever some sort of risk threshold is met and nationalize the company? Also what is the definition of "biggest institutions?" Will this SRR step in if it sees GE trying to throw billions into an expensive startup like semiconductors? So will they dictate what new nations a company tries to enter because the regional risk is too high? Lots of questions that need to be answered or this might curtail almost all risk taking by these biggest institutions.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

OnLive Seems Like a Good Idea: It Might Be 5 Years Too Early

There seems to be a new online streaming game system that might be a serious competitor to console and computer games.


What if you could stream top-end games to your TV, just like a Youtube video that you can control? You'd never need to buy a console again.

That's the future envisaged by Palo Alto startup OnLive, which plans to launch a groundbreaking gaming service this winter. OnLive will supply players with a small set-top box, not much bigger than a Nintendo DS, which will plug into your TV and your home broadband connection. From there, you can start playing games just like those on the Xbox 360, PS3 or PC -- but with no install time, no waiting for downloads, and no need for big, noisy, expensive consoles cluttering up your living room. OnLive's service can be continually upgraded, too, so you'll never be stuck with obsolete hardware again.


The article goes on to say that the system is only as good as your broadband connection since it will stream both the game and the netcode for online play. I complain about lag all the time and I am running the game off of the console. Imagine if I had to stream an HD game as well as run the netcode. I would be a sitting duck in a game like Call of Duty 4.


They also point out that your ISP might throttle your connection if you are a heavy user of this device. That is where I think this thing is 5 years too early. Right now I would guarantee that your connection will start to degrade as soon as you plug this thing in and they inspect your packets. Any way you slice it you will be hogging a ton of bandwidth and your ISP will come down hard on you.


However, in 5 years ISPs will most likely have faster networks that will be able to handle streaming HD gaming over the net. I hope this thing survives until that time because we *will* be seeing Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony try to stream games since it kills the pirating problem dead. The odd man out will be GameStop who ends up looking like Blockbuster if they don't plan for this thing.


Here is a pic of the setup. The controller looks kind of clunky but if all you need to connect to the thing is that little card then it is quite an elegant solution.


Gang of 15 Moderate Senate Democrats Now in Cat Bird Seat

It seems that these moderate Democrats can now pretty much block or pass anything that Obama wants to enact.

Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., announced on MCNBC's "Morning Joe" this morning that he has formed a gang of 15 Democrats - yes, Democrats - in the Senate to essentially try to keep President Obama in check. The group is sending a message to the White House to not expect them to rubber stamp every proposal sent down Pennsylvania Avenue, particularly when it comes to spending, and that maybe Obama is trying to do too much, too fast. And since it takes 60 votes to get much done in the Senate, this group could be critical and essentially control the outcome of many pieces of legislation in the Senate.

They should think about joining with a number of moderate Republicans and forming a Centrist coalition. Maybe it will bring some sanity back to a too damn partisan Washington.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Is There a Major Stock Market Rally Brewing?

James Kostohryz thinks so. And he is putting his money where his mouth is. His reasoning is very sound and is mostly based on overreaction by big investors and behavioral factors. His window of opportunity will be from March to June.

As most of you know, on March 2, on the Buzz & Banter, I announced that I was initiating a 50% long position in US equities (from 10%) with the S&P at roughly 700. On March 5, with the S&P at around 680, I implemented a 100% long position.

I've maintained this core position since then and have traded around it using leverage. Since then, I've reiterated various times that I believe that the market has put in an important intermediate term bottom, and that the market will experience a major countertrend rally.

Here are his tells to show you the rally is underway:

1. Oil, basic materials, industrials and transportation outperform due to a belief that the global contraction has bottomed out. Watch IYM which is trading at 36.17 for this tell. This one may have already been hit because IYM has outperformed the S&P500 in the last few months.

2. Corporate Debt Spread Contract as TALF, TARP, toxic debt triage plan etc. starts to help credit markets. The tells here are LQD which is trading at $93.10, CFT at $90.64, JNK at $29.30 , and HYG at $69.30. All of these ETFs have been recovering nicely from their lows and are a few points higher.

3. Emerging Markets Outperform. The tell here is EEM which has gone from 19 to 26 since March 2nd.

4. VIX goes below 40 and stays there. This one is pretty close because the VIX is at 42.93.

5. Rising Put/Call Ratios. This is the wall of worry the market needs to climb to go higher.

6. Export Data from Japan and Asia get better. Japanese Imports and Exports are dropping like a rock but they are now carrying an unexpected trade surplus of Y82.4 billion. Chinese exports are in the dumper as well, going down 25.7% from a year earlier. These numbers seem to be near rock bottom so hopefully they won't get much worse. March will tell the tale.

7. Job losses begin to slow down or even stop. I think this will probably be one of those things where economists call for a big drop and instead there is little to no drop and everyone is surprised. Then Obama will say that the stimulus is working.

8. Commodities prices start to stabilize with oil at $55-$60. Two tells here (that are fairly liquid) are GSG and DJP. Both of these are commodities Index ETFs.

9. "Disappointing" pre-announced earnings that don't tank the stocks. Look for signs of stabilization in earnings as companies forecast the rest of the year.

10. Shrill bears calling it a "sucker's rally" etc. This is a contrarian indicator that tells you that the louder and more dogmatically they complain the higher the wall of worry becomes. Then if you see them switch sides you know the rally is underway.

Did Cuomo Commit Extortion to Get Back AIG Bonuses?

I think someone could think that according to this memo from the Wall Street Journal. The memo has this important bit in it.

To the extent that we meet certain participation targets, it is not expected that the names will be released, at all.

It kind of seems like Cuomo could have committed extortion.

Most states define extortion as the gaining of property or money by almost any kind of force, or threat of 1) violence, 2) property damage, 3) harm to reputation, or 4) unfavorable government action.

It seem that the harm to reputation part is what he committed. He pretty much put out the threat of releasing these peoples names and having their reputations ruined. I'm sure Cuomo knew that releasing these people's names was like throwing red meat to piranhas. I mean ACORN went to one of these peoples homes and created a publicity stunt in order to shame an AIG employee. What would stop some nutjob from planting a bomb at this guys house?

I figure that Cuomo was forcing these people to pay back the money to AIG and not him personally so he probably won't be charged with anything. However he might have set himself up for a lawsuit. I mean Cuomo pretty much threatened to ruin these people's reputations (or possibly get themselves strangled with piano wire) in return for his silence.

However, these AIG people probably won't sue in order to keep their names out of the paper. It is sad times when the AG of New York threatens workers at a company that I (and every American) owns 80% of.

Congress Goes on Lavish Trips While Hotel Industry Burns

It seems Congress is practicing some "do as I say not as I do" shenanigans.

About a dozen Democrats, including Dodd, 64, gathered at the Marriott-operated Ritz-Carlton resort in Naples, Florida. Donors who gave at least $15,000 were invited and offered a “coastal view” room at the group rate of $469, according to the Democrats’ invitation.

At least 11 Republican senators held a similar retreat at The Breakers resort in Palm Beach. Rooms could be had for $475 a night. For another $292, participants could play in a golf tournament. The invitation urged guests to make reservations for the resort’s spa “indulgences.”

Yup they are partying it up at the Ritz and the Breakers while some companies are changing travel plans for appearances sake even if it costs them more.

“We’ve seen companies cancel meetings last minute, leaving 100 percent on the table just to avoid criticism and ridicule,” said Frits van Paasschen, president and chief executive of White Plains, New York-based Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc., the third-largest U.S. lodging company, who attended the White House meeting.

“We’ve also seen meeting planners move meetings from resort locations to city locations, at a greater cost to their companies, again, for optics’ sake,” he said.

It all seems to stem from Obama putting his foot in his mouth "Special Olympics" style.

Hotel executives said their business began to suffer after Obama, 47, warned Feb. 9 during a town-hall meeting in Elkhart, Indiana, that companies receiving bailout money “can’t go take a trip to Las Vegas or go down to the Super Bowl on the taxpayers’ dime.”

Of course if Obama wasn't looking for a camera to jump in front of he would know that the taxpayers dime is sitting on the books of many banks in order to fill capital requirements. Travel budgets usually come from another pot of money and are worked out far in advance. In any case we get to see the travel industry (and places like Vegas) torn up for the sake of appearances.

Treasury Seeks Vast New Powers

The question is will they use the AIG crisis in order to give them that power?

Geithner made it clear he believes the treasury secretary should be granted unprecedented power, after consultation with Federal Reserve Board officials, to take control of a major financial institution and run it. The treasury chief is an official of the administration, unlike the FDIC, which is an independent regulatory agency.

In other words the Treasury would run AIG instead of trying to find some altruistic person like Ed Liddy the current CEO. It seems plausible but what criteria would the Treasury need in order to take over the company? If the bank broke a stress test for one quarter, lets say, would the Treasury immediately nationalize the company? In this case there will be a fear of rolling nationalizations every time there is a recession. Also there needs to be some sort of check from another branch of government or there could be abuses.

Health Insurers Consider Dropping Risk Rating

So if you buy individual insurance you might be able to still get insurance even if you have an existing medical condition.

In the letter, the two insurance industry groups said their members are willing to "phase out the practice of varying premiums based on health status in the individual market" if all Americans are required to get coverage.

"The offer here is to transition away from risk rating, which is one of the things that makes life hell for real people," said health economist Len Nichols of the New America Foundation public policy center. "They have never in their history offered to give up risk rating."

In other words they don't want the government to price them out of business so they are forced to offer a better product. That seems like an okay plan as long as there isn't some sort of health epidemic in the US. I wonder if they will let healthy people pay less or will they end up paying more?

Monday, March 23, 2009

More Help Drop Shipped to Treasury

At last it won't be Geithner and a bunch of secretaries trying to fix a global financial mess. Neal Wolin is a top exec at Hartford Financial Group. So we have a guy that has a job in the business world. While Lael Brainard is a top egg-head at the Brookings Institution (that sure is an ugly picture of her, I think Brookings needs to spring for a better digital camera.) She seems to be a Ben Bernanke-type academic. I'm hoping both of these people have paid their taxes in full and are ready to hit the ground running.

Mr. Obama on Monday announced Neal Wolin as deputy treasury secretary. The White House also announced that Lael Brainard would be the department's top official for international affairs and that Stuart Levey would stay on as the top counter terrorism official.

Their appointments round out four of the five top jobs at treasury, if the Senate confirms them.

Obama Goes on a Wall Street Charm Offensive: Will Wall Street Turn the Cold Shoulder?

Now when the Treasury needs their money to restart credit markets and help bank balance sheets he dials back the rhetoric.

But weeks of searing criticism by politicians and the public had left bankers leery of working with the government. After brainstorming about what to do about that problem, the White House resolved to try to take control of the debate, according to several administration officials. In weekend television appearances, President Barack Obama and other administration officials tempered their criticisms of the financial sector.

Too bad bankers seem to be nonplussed now that Obama needs them again.

Some bankers say they turned the conversations into complaints about the antibonus crusade consuming Capitol Hill. Some have begun "slow-walking" the information previously sought by Treasury for stress-testing financial institutions, three bankers say, and considered seeking capital from hedge funds and private-equity funds so they could return federal bailout money, thereby escaping federal restrictions.

In other words some banks would rather borrow money from other funds in order to get rid of the TARP money on their books. Talk about counter-productive. Maybe Obama is finally understanding what is good for Wall Street sometimes benefits Main Street. It is all well-and-good to be anti-corporate if Uncle Sam is paying your salary. However, when you want companies to create jobs you need to help those companies out. I have to give Obama credit he does have the capacity to change his mind when situations change.

JPMorgan To Buy Gulfstream 650 Jets and Renovate Hangar: Wait for the Outrage Mob

They need to pay back that stupid TARP money quick before the "Outrage Mob" jumps all over them.

Joseph Evangelisti, a spokesman for JPMorgan Chase, said no TARP money would be used to make any payments for new jets or jet hangar improvements. He refused to comment on whether JPMorgan had put a down payment for new planes, saying only that any future jet purchases would be part of its normal aircraft replacement policy, and that JPMorgan Chase will repay all TARP money before it makes any payments for new planes or renovations.

That TARP money is poison and I think JPMorgan should get rid of it before Congress taxes them 90% or something. These planes are replacing aging planes that the company bought years ago. The Outrage Mob may not like corporate fat cats flying around in private planes like they thought they were the Speaker of the House Pelosi or something.

However it really shouldn't matter to anyone how JP Morgan spends their money just like it shouldn't matter how a private citizen spends their hard earned money. JPM finds they save on travel (or there are security and thus key-man insurance concerns) if they buy and maintain their own corporate jets. If this company is solvent and isn't a danger to the world economy (like AIG) then they should be allowed to buy whatever they deem important for their business.

Toxic Asset Plan Revealed. So Far the Market Likes It!

Here is a link to a PDF of the toxic asset plan. So far the markets verdict is "thumbs up."

The market shot higher at the opening and kept going. The Treasury Department said its bad asset cleanup program would tap money from the government's $700 billion financial rescue fund and involve help from the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the participation of private investors.

The government's announcement was what the market had waited weeks to hear. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner had announced an outline of the program last month but provided few details then about how it would work, leading to a stock plunge that sliced 380 points from the Dow.

Hulu Is Growing like a Weed

I have watched it a few times and I am patiently waiting for Big Bang to come on the service so I don't have to watch it on Mondays. I mean CBS should get with the program and just put that stuff on there already. I have to say that these are pretty impressive growth numbers.

Hulu is really becoming a major force in online video. Since comScore started measuring last May, Hulu has grown the number of videos it streams by 277 percent, and its audience has grown 410 percent. Nielsen VideoCensus data shows similar growth in streams (see second table below).

Friday, March 20, 2009

Who is Working at AIG? It Seems to Be the Clean-up Crew

At least you get a sense that the people getting the bonuses aren't a bunch of greedy derivative traders but people trying the clean up the mess before it *really* blows up.

In actuality, he said, nearly all the troublesome sectors of the business -- namely, the risky credit derivatives written on mortgage-backed securities -- are now out of the equation, as are the people who worked on them. That leaves a small number of employees to untangle the remaining trades in four main areas: commodities, interest rates, currency and equities -- most of which were fully hedged and have caused little problem. The effort also requires a sizable number of "back office" staff, such as systems, computing, accounting, human resources and legal teams.

"Everybody, including my secretary and including the guy down the hall that serves lunch, gets a payment," said Pasciucco, who added that he received no retention payment and has no contract.

Also it seems if Congress does pass its "stick it to AIG" tax we might have the law of unintended consequences to deal with. These guys may walk and harm the firm.

But it would be impractical at best, dangerous at worst, to get rid of everyone at Financial Products, according to AIG officials. If everyone leaves, Pasciucco said, "you don't have people that really, truly understand the book [of business]. We're still big enough that that matters."

If they did walk out the door, who would volunteer to work at the Chernobyl of the financial world? And what would become of the mammoth portfolio that remains?


"It would become the biggest naked position on Wall Street," one longtime Financial Products executive said, "and everybody would exploit it."

Yup these guys that Congress wants to tax so badly will simply walk out and join Goldman or whomever and exploit the knowledge of the company that sold them down the river. It's sad to think that a little populist lynch mob has the potential to bring down the entire world economy.

Support For Nuclear Energy Highest Since 1995

It seems that more Americans are understanding that nuclear energy is the only viable bridge technology that gets us off of oil and takes us into true renewables.

President Obama has said that nuclear power is part of his overall plan to expand the use of alternative energy in the United States, and if public support for it continues to grow, it would seem likely that more Americans would come to rely on nuclear energy.

If Obama gets us to even half of what France or Japan has in total nuclear power then I will consider his energy contribution a big success. If he could get us to 0% Mullah Brand Oil penetration in our energy markets then I would put him in the top 1/3 of Presidents.