Now this is an interesting article on what you should do when there is hyperinflation and deflation scenarios. We may just end up with the second scenario in 2008.
Investment Themes For Hyperinflation
In hyperinflation the last place one wants to be is in cash.
Commodities in general are a standout.
Gold is a standout.
Precious metals are a standout.
Property is a winner.
Equities are a winner.
Treasuries are distinct losers if not outright shorts.
Foreign currencies
Energy
Investment Themes For Deflation
In deflation, debt is the enemy.
Risk is to be avoided.
Cash is raised.
Treasuries are sought out as a safe haven
CD ladders offer a good investment structure.
Gold, acting as money does well.
Select equity shorts or Puts are a standout.
Renting as opposed to owning a house should be considered.
Currency plays.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Thoughts on Jim Cramers Stock Picking Tips
Now this is an interesting article on how Jim Cramer picks his stocks. This is what he does when the stock market is down:
A lot of times the P/E is artificially lower because the stock is in a "cyclical industry" that "deserves" a lower P/E. You can look at many agricultural stocks like Deere (P/E 22 to 52% growth,) Bunge (P/E 18 to 107% growth,) and Terra Nitrogen (P/E 17 to 232% growth)falling into this category. Those stocks will grow very well in the coming years as the ethanol boom consumes more and more corn and thus needs more farming equipment, seeds, and fertilizer too keep things moving. The ethanol stocks on the other hand have the potential growth but the fundamentals just don't add up yet. That realized growth may be there in the future but it is hard to hold those stocks to that period.
Cramers final tip has to do with buying with wide scales:
This one is hard to do for the small investor since this stock ends up as a large portion of your portfolio. It is just psychologically difficult to keep buying a stock over and over as it goes down without much upside hoping for a bottom so you can double up. It works but you have to be very careful with the stock you pick.
If you are certain that the stock is undervalued and it has great prospects in the future then it is a sound strategy. I think many financial stocks are starting to fit the bill as this sub-prime mess spools out. I think a company like Goldman or Citigroup can start making big money again once they write off all of that bad debt and get back to what they do best.
Usually when a stock gets upgraded, it jumps higher immediately, heHis other rule of thumb is:
said. But not when that upgrade comes out on a bad day for the market. "On those days, a stock that gets upgraded isn't going higher. In fact, there's a good
chance it will go lower depending on how awful the action is," Cramer
said.
"If a stock has a price-to-earnings multiple -- remember E (theThis is one rule of thumb that I already use to vet a stock. You first look at why the P/E is low compared to its growth rate. If it is because the company has crappy earnings that need to be revised lower and lower but lots of potential (but unrealized) growth then you should avoid the stock. However if the potential is finally met (like Amazon) then the stock takes off if there is more earnings growth possible.
earnings) times M (the multiple) equals P (the price) -- that's lower than its
growth rate, then that stock is cheap," Cramer said.
A lot of times the P/E is artificially lower because the stock is in a "cyclical industry" that "deserves" a lower P/E. You can look at many agricultural stocks like Deere (P/E 22 to 52% growth,) Bunge (P/E 18 to 107% growth,) and Terra Nitrogen (P/E 17 to 232% growth)falling into this category. Those stocks will grow very well in the coming years as the ethanol boom consumes more and more corn and thus needs more farming equipment, seeds, and fertilizer too keep things moving. The ethanol stocks on the other hand have the potential growth but the fundamentals just don't add up yet. That realized growth may be there in the future but it is hard to hold those stocks to that period.
Cramers final tip has to do with buying with wide scales:
With wide scales, people buy larger and larger positions as the stock goes
lower, and "when it's so low you can hardly believe how poorly the stock is
trading, you double down," he said.
This one is hard to do for the small investor since this stock ends up as a large portion of your portfolio. It is just psychologically difficult to keep buying a stock over and over as it goes down without much upside hoping for a bottom so you can double up. It works but you have to be very careful with the stock you pick.
If you are certain that the stock is undervalued and it has great prospects in the future then it is a sound strategy. I think many financial stocks are starting to fit the bill as this sub-prime mess spools out. I think a company like Goldman or Citigroup can start making big money again once they write off all of that bad debt and get back to what they do best.
The Main Stream Media on the Bhutto Assassination
Now this is exactly why people do not trust the Main Stream Media. With Pakistan reeling and riots in the streets the MSM chooses to cover the advantage that it has on our own Presidential race.
How America-centric can you get? This assassination does not affect our long, tortured election process one bit. Of course all of the candidates condemn the attack. Of course all of the candidates will thump their chests about their foreign policy experience. Or they will try to make up for the fact that they do not have it.
I think the MSM should focus on how this will affect people in Pakistan and what it means for the war on terror and not try to see who gains or looses from it in a US election. Too bad the AP only thinks in terms of "Bhutto Assassinated"=Good for McCain and Clinton and Bad for Obama, Huckabee, Romney. I guess every world event must be shown in terms of this Red/State blue state horse race to these guys.
The assassination of Pakistan's former prime minister occurred one week
before the Iowa caucuses, the first test of the 2008 race for the White House,
and provided a reminder of the importance of national security in an era of
terrorism.
How America-centric can you get? This assassination does not affect our long, tortured election process one bit. Of course all of the candidates condemn the attack. Of course all of the candidates will thump their chests about their foreign policy experience. Or they will try to make up for the fact that they do not have it.
I think the MSM should focus on how this will affect people in Pakistan and what it means for the war on terror and not try to see who gains or looses from it in a US election. Too bad the AP only thinks in terms of "Bhutto Assassinated"=Good for McCain and Clinton and Bad for Obama, Huckabee, Romney. I guess every world event must be shown in terms of this Red/State blue state horse race to these guys.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Club For Growth Goes After Huckabee
It looks like they are trying to Swiftboat Huckabee.
I figure these types of groups should be running ads for Huckabee and his Fair Tax plan. Instead they are going after some small potato tax increases when he was governor? His Fair Tax Plan will save Americans the time and money that comes from filing Income Taxes. This group needs to save their money for Hillary/Obama. If they think Huckabee is bad he will look like a miser compared to these tax and spenders.
The Club for Growth is spending $175,000 to continue running ads in Iowa
that highlight tax increases adopted in Arkansas when Huckabee was governor.
During the past three weeks, the group has spent $550,000 to criticize
Huckabee's economic policies.
I figure these types of groups should be running ads for Huckabee and his Fair Tax plan. Instead they are going after some small potato tax increases when he was governor? His Fair Tax Plan will save Americans the time and money that comes from filing Income Taxes. This group needs to save their money for Hillary/Obama. If they think Huckabee is bad he will look like a miser compared to these tax and spenders.
Interesting Article on Xbox360 Price Cuts
This is an interesting article on why Microsoft should cut the price of the Xbox360 before the PS3 introduces its exclusive games in Q1 2008.
They have a second advantage in that the 360, whilst technically as capable as the PS3, is relatively economic to manufacture. This is something Microsoft have put a lot of effort into. So as their AAA exclusives advantage reduces, then their ability to use the price mechanism will come further into play. Especially as Microsoft have lots of money in the bank.
Judging by this list I'm not certain that this AAA exclusives will be Halo 3 type of games that are able to push out PS3s by the truckload. I agree that Metal Gear Solid 4 will be a console mover but that game doesn't come out until Summer. PlayStation Home won't be something you go out and plunk down $400 for and FF XIII may not be out in 2008 at all.
The other exclusive games on this list aren't very well hyped since I haven't heard of quite a few of them. So this MSFT opportunity may not be as big a deal as this guy makes it out to be. However, I think reducing the price and at the same time bundling GTA4 with a branded Xbox360 sounds like a great idea that might really move some consoles out the door.
They have a second advantage in that the 360, whilst technically as capable as the PS3, is relatively economic to manufacture. This is something Microsoft have put a lot of effort into. So as their AAA exclusives advantage reduces, then their ability to use the price mechanism will come further into play. Especially as Microsoft have lots of money in the bank.
Judging by this list I'm not certain that this AAA exclusives will be Halo 3 type of games that are able to push out PS3s by the truckload. I agree that Metal Gear Solid 4 will be a console mover but that game doesn't come out until Summer. PlayStation Home won't be something you go out and plunk down $400 for and FF XIII may not be out in 2008 at all.
The other exclusive games on this list aren't very well hyped since I haven't heard of quite a few of them. So this MSFT opportunity may not be as big a deal as this guy makes it out to be. However, I think reducing the price and at the same time bundling GTA4 with a branded Xbox360 sounds like a great idea that might really move some consoles out the door.
Monday, December 24, 2007
Friday, December 21, 2007
Stores or Consumers who will Win on Black Saturday?
It looks like there is no real "must have gift" this holiday season and it will be interesting to see what people will be buying in this last push. Activision and Nintendo however may have a big weekend. I think giftcards may be the most important thing this holiday season as people just give up and buy them instead of any one gift. The gift card line at Ala Moana stretched out the door during the other day.
Traffic to U.S. stores for the week ended December 15 fell 8.9 percent
compared with last year, according to ShopperTrak.
NPD's Cohen said some of the decline was due to indecision.
Besides popular electronics like Nintendo Co Ltd's (Osaka:7974.OS - News) Wii game console and Activision Inc's (NasdaqGS:ATVI - News), Guitar Hero
video game, he said shoppers are unsure of what buy.
"They're walking around like lost puppies," he said.
BioShock Wins Game of the Year Honors
This should be good news for Take Two. I should be picking this thing up once I get my hands on Assassins Creed. So many games so little time.
Beyond “Game of the Year” roundups, BioShock is being championed as a
top pick for the holidays, with the top video game enthusiast websites leading
the pack. These include IGN, GameSpot, 1UP, GamePro.com, GamesRadar and
GameSpy.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
The So-Called Biblical Bookshelf
My question is what do those balls represent? I think they are a subliminal message that says Huckabee has got big balls. In fact he might have the biggest balls of them all. The secret AC/CD endrosement that noone in the Huckabee camp seems to talk about.
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
How you can Tell Reuters is for Hillary+Anyone but Huckabee
I love how they picked these pictures to accompany the "Biblical Bookshelf" fake controversy and Obama pulling even with Hillary story.
Reuters is trying to say that Huckabee is a nutty Baptist preacher from the South that has those "crazy, religious zealot" eyes and Obama looks like an inexperienced neophyte with that dumb look on his face. Of course they couldn't show a picture of Huckabee looking relaxed and happy and Obama looking presidential. Reuters needs to portray Huckabee as crazy preacher man and Obama as the clueless newbie. And people say the MSM is objective.
Reuters is trying to say that Huckabee is a nutty Baptist preacher from the South that has those "crazy, religious zealot" eyes and Obama looks like an inexperienced neophyte with that dumb look on his face. Of course they couldn't show a picture of Huckabee looking relaxed and happy and Obama looking presidential. Reuters needs to portray Huckabee as crazy preacher man and Obama as the clueless newbie. And people say the MSM is objective.
Huckabee "Defends Ad"
As if such a thing needed to be defended.
This holiday message showed his human side and of course Reuters needs controversy now that US troops aren't dying in Iraq so they just drum it up in any way possible. I love how the so-called "biblical bookshelf" is now taken as a given.
I guess the bookself could have looked like some other kind of cross but I'm glad Reuters is there to let us know exactly what kind of cross the bookshelf actually looked like. Talk about a controversy made out of nothing. There must be something to Huckabee if the MSM wants him beat him so badly.
"In the harshness of this political campaign, with attack ads and negative
stuff coming at us every day, we decided we wanted to do something that showed, 'Hey, folks, life isn't all about politics. Life is also about our family and
friends,"' Huckabee said.
This holiday message showed his human side and of course Reuters needs controversy now that US troops aren't dying in Iraq so they just drum it up in any way possible. I love how the so-called "biblical bookshelf" is now taken as a given.
Huckabee, who has come out of nowhere to lead Republican polls in Iowa and
challenge Giuliani for the lead in national polls, took criticism from
Republican candidate Ron Paul on Tuesday for a "Merry Christmas" advertisement that included a book shelf behind him that looked like a Christian cross.
I guess the bookself could have looked like some other kind of cross but I'm glad Reuters is there to let us know exactly what kind of cross the bookshelf actually looked like. Talk about a controversy made out of nothing. There must be something to Huckabee if the MSM wants him beat him so badly.
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