Merkel Most Powerful Woman in the World

Good for Germany because Gerhard Schroeder was a pandering doof. I have a feeling that Hillary is going to be taking the top spot before too long.

"Merkel continued to impress the world with her cool leadership at two
back-to-back summits, and stuck to her principles, getting G8 leaders to agree
to significant cuts in carbon emissions, among other things," Forbes
said.

Bush's Mortgage Plan

It looks like Bush is going to be the one to backstop the mortgage market meltdown. IIRC the FHA (Federal Housing Administration) was one of those New Deal programs that came out of the FDR Administration. Ah, FDR a positive, forward thinking Democrat that America could get behind. He was instrumental in winning a war too.

Under the Bush proposal, which FHA officials said would take effect
immediately, an estimated 60,000 homeowners who have fallen behind on payments because their mortgages have reset would be able to refinance with FHA-insured loans. That marks a significant change because FHA does not now insure refinanced loans from borrowers who are currently delinquent.

J. Michels Uranium Index

+$1,444.60 +3.46%

This is a Great Article on SEC Football

This is an outstanding piece of writing on how people in the South love their football.

I love "ARE YOU READY?" and all the other SEC football idiosyncrasies,
too, because they come from the same kind of passion: Mississippi State's
cowbells, the Vol Navy, an Arkansas fan using the Freedom of Information Act,
the way the crowd sings along to "Sweet Home Alabama" on a warm Southern
Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium. In Birmingham, they love the gov'nah, indeed. Me, too, even if I don't know a single thing about him. That's what football can do. It can even make me love Steve Spurrier. That rat bastard, I love him
so.

I actually got a chance to see that Sweet Home Alabama sung at Bryant-Denny Stadium. It was one of the greatest football related experiences you could have. You could really feel like you were in the cathedral of football praying with the flock.

Microsoft to Buy Out Blackberry?

Now this is very interesting news IF it actually happens:

Research in Motion (nasdaq: RIMM - news - people ) also had a good day. Shares of the BlackBerry maker rose .9%, amid chatter that software giant Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) wanted to buy the company. Microsoft may be angling to muscle rival Google (nasdaq: GOOG - news - people ) out of the mobile phone software market.

There has been talk of Google possibly getting into the mobile phone business with a Google branded phone. Maybe MSFT is going to try to head them off at the pass and really shake some things up. I think this would be a very canny move by MSFT to get away from the desktop/laptop field and become the king of mobile computing.

Also it would be nice to concentrate the Blackberry and Windows Server 2003 all into one easier to handle source. Also MSFT would get the patents to push e-mailing so they can do all sorts of crazy stuff with newer versions of Exchange Server going forward.

This would also get MSFT into the handset business so they would be able to compete head to head with Nokia, Motorola, Samsung etc. If they tried to compete from scratch they would probably fall on their head. Instead they would be buying millions of users who are already using the Blackberry service who would be unlikely to switch to Palm or the Motorola Q. They will by buying a leader in the field and not some also-ran like Palm.

I think if they complete the deal (it would cost like $46 billion and MSFT has $12 billion in cash) it will really make MSFTs stock hum since they will be buying a true growth business. It is the kind of deal that would reshape their company. It would be a little like how Apple went from Mac to IPod to IPhone in the consumer realm. Instead MSFT will be doing from Windows XP, to Windows Mobile, to Microsoft Blackberry in the corporate realm. It would suck to get a virus on your Blackberry though.

Increased Defaults Hit Freddie Mac Income Statement

These are the regular prime mortgages and not those subprime ones.

The $764 million in net income fell sharply from the $1.4 billion last
year.

The company's chief financial officer blamed a rise in mortgage
defaults for the lower earnings. Costs related to current and future failed
loans rocketed 433 percent from a year earlier to $336 million, and rose 74
percent from the first quarter.

Rising loan failures have not yet set off alarms about the quality
of the company's assets, said Jim Vogel, who tracks the company for FTN
Financial in Memphis, Tennessee.

This means things might get alot worse before they start getting better. The bad part is that quite a few adjustable rate mortgages still have the adjust in the coming months. The age of the "House Flipping Wanna-be Robert Kiyosaki" are long gone.

Another Tellabs Buyout Rumor

This should be good news for this stock. Nortel may be trying to buy them out.

The Toronto telecom equipment supplier is considering a
cash-and-stock offer for Tellabs, according to a source familiar with the
discussion. A takeover price of $14 to $15 a share from Nortel was reported
Thursday by Light Reading, a networking industry publication.

The stock is also trading in the mid-10's so this would be quite a nice bid if they do the deal. However Nokia and Siemens were thinking of jumping in for $16-$17 a share on the deal last month so the spread dropped a little. Some options players think a deal is eminent because they bought about 16000 At or Near the money calls from the Sept. through the Dec. series. Almost no puts traded today as well.

J. Michels Uranium Index 8/30/07

-$493.60 -1.17%

Cerberus wants to Cancel H&R Block Deal

It looks like some of those private equity guys are getting cold feet when it comes to doing certain deals.

H&R Block is negotiating with Cerberus to waive some closing
requirements and close before a December 31 deadline, but said there is "no
assurance" any transaction will occur.

Losses at Option One contributed to an overall loss of $302.6
million, or 93 cents per share, for the fiscal first quarter that ended July 31.
That is up from a loss of $131.4 million, or 41 cents per share, a year
earlier.

Cerberus seriously doesn't want to start racking up big losses just to get their hands on that Option One mortgage servicing business. It looks more and more like the sub prime loans that people have made are like a hot potato that no one wants at any cost. I'm still thinking that the tax payer will end up taking to loss to prevent massive foreclosures.

Report Second Guesses Va. Tech Shooting Response

Now this is the kind of thing that gets people mad at the media. This article first says this:

Virginia Tech officials could have saved lives if they had quickly
warned the campus that two students had been shot to death and a killer was on
the loose, a panel that investigated the attacks said Thursday.

But right in the report it says this:

But the panel also concluded that a lockdown of the 131 buildings on
campus would not have been feasible. And while the first message sent by the
university could have gone out at least an hour earlier and been more specific,
Cho likely still would have found more people to kill, it said.

"There does not seem to be a plausible scenario of a university
response to the double homicide that could have prevented the tragedy of
considerable magnitude on April 16," the report said. "Cho had started on a
mission of fulfilling a fantasy of revenge."

They thought the killer left the campus (which he did to mail the package to the news media) so officials thought they were in the clear. They had no idea that he would come back, chain a door and start killing people. They were in a no-win situation. If they locked down the campus over a domestic dispute then there might have been chaos. So they tried to warn people as best they could and it came too late to save people. Even if most people heard there was a shooting in the dorms they still would have gone to class because it was so close to finals and people needed to review and get ready.

Even if they locked down the campus, Cho still would have shot up the dorms instead of those classrooms. He was a loaded weapon ready to go off. Nothing save killing him could have stopped him from shooting up the campus.

About the only thing they could have done is recognized that this guy was mentally ill and took steps to send him put into a mental institution or something. Even this tract was pinched off by privacy laws that prevented Va Tech from getting mental health records of a minor child (which he was when he had some of these thoughts.) Also you can't make this out to be a failure as well:

The university's counseling center failed to give Cho the support he
needed despite the warnings, including his referral to the center in 2005
because of bizarre behavior and concerns he was suicidal, the panel said. It
blamed a lack of resources, misinterpretation of privacy laws and passivity.

What does the Counselling Center have to do? Get an armed guard to escort him to the clinic? They can refer him all they want but they can't force anyone to go to counselling.

Some of the things that could have prevented Cho from killing those people could have been a better upbringing, less racially motivated bullying in high school, or maybe getting a girlfriend. I think if he had a girlfriend to understand him, reign in his behavior, listen to him bitch, and provide something for him to live for this tragedy might have been prevented.

I still think he killed that first girl, Emily Hilscher because he had a crush on her but was too weak and scared to make it known. So his weakness and fear manifested in violence that he used to make him feel strong and in control again.

Iraqi WMDs found at UN

Talk about hiding something where you would least expect it.

The FBI was called in to remove the substances, which were discovered
last Friday and included phosgene, an older generation chemical warfare agent,
taken in 1996 by inspectors from a former Iraqi chemical weapons plant at Al
Muthanna, the inspectors said in a statement.

Phosgene was used extensively during World War I as a choking agent,
according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control.

But I thought the Iraqi's didn't have any WMDs according to Hans Blix? You would figure that the UN would want to destroy WWI choking agents that turns water your respiratory tract into hydrochloric acid. It sounds like nasty stuff and it shouldn't be in some UN storage facility.

Retail Stocks a Bargain?

It seems that consumer spending is going to slow a bit and that means people will not be buying as many Coach bags and such. This article has a pretty good gauge on what stocks will weather the storm. I agree with this part:

Where would I recommend looking to invest instead? I think that
companies selling consumer staples with strong international footprints are a
good idea, as they provide both a defensive bent and upside potential. The
defensive bent comes from the recession-resistant nature of the products these
companies make: spirits in the case of Diageo (NYSE:DEO - News), confectionary
at Cadbury Schweppes (NYSE:CSG - News), chips and drinks at PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP - News), and soup and food products from Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB - News), as well as a vast array of consumer products from Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG - News). These are good stocks for uncertain times and are also good long-term investments, given the secular growth trends we see in a number of foreign markets.

I really agree with Cadbury Schweppes since they are a very strong competitor in the European market. They have alos sold off their non-core European assets and they now own Dr. Pepper, Snapple and the 7-UP brands. They are also rumored to be circling Hershey's for a potential buyout. That would make CSG a true juggernaut in the chocolate space. Whatever happens to the subprime market people are still going to eat chocolate and drink soda.

J. Michels Uranium Index 8/29/07

+$1,324.00 +3.24%

Dirty Dealings at Countrywide

Now this is quite an expose on the excesses of Countrywide Mortgage. Some of their risky mortgage schemes and such may be worthy of an Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room style book depending on how bad this subprime crisis gets. One black flag if you were a shareholder is how many shares that Angelo R. Mozilo the Chairman and CEO was selling. He cashed out $129 million in the last 12 months. When the CEO starts to bail its time to sell/go short the stock.

Mr. Mozilo has ridden this remarkable wave to immense riches, thanks to
generous annual stock option grants. Rarely a buyer of Countrywide shares — he
has not bought a share since 1987, according to Securities and Exchange
Commission filings — he has been a huge seller in recent years. Since the
company listed its shares on the New York Stock Exchange in 1984, he has reaped $406 million selling Countrywide stock.

As the subprime mortgage debacle began to unfold this year, Mr.
Mozilo’s selling accelerated. Filings show that he made $129 million from stock
sales during the last 12 months, or almost one-third of the entire amount he has
reaped over the last 23 years. He still holds 1.4 million shares in Countrywide,
a 0.24 percent stake that is worth $29.4 million.

J. Michels Uranium Index 8/28/07

-$2,061.00 -4.80%

The French Plan

I really like some of Sarkozy's new plans for France. He seems to be anti-bomb for Iran in no uncertain terms but also is pro nuclear power for Iran. That seems like a pretty reasonable stance. I wonder if French companies will be the ones trying to build the Iranian reactors instead of Russian ones if some kind of accommodation is reached.

He is also pro-NATO security for Afgainstan but is still against the Iraq war. That seems like a position that is held by 70%+ of the American people as well. He also opposes Russia going totalitarian and using their oil as a weapon. He is also against the Chinese trying to control the flow of raw materials from Africa. The French are traditionally an African advocate and it is time they flexed their diplomatic muscles to help out there.

I also like how he has ties to the Arab leaders in the Middle East while also supporting Israel. I think the French more then anyone else could get a deal in the Palestinian/Israeli conflict. They don't have colonial ties to the area (Britian,) or secretly wants Israel destroyed (other Arab states,) or is too close an ally with Israel (America.) They really have nothing to gain on either side from brokering an acceptable political deal. They could be a true impartial arbiter that could bring UN pressure to bear and keep the US at arms length.

Finally this would be an interesting opportunity as well:

Closer to home, Sarkozy reiterated his proposal for a "Mediterranean
Union" to bridge the divide between Europe and North Africa. The idea echoes a
concept dear to Chirac, who called for a "dialogue of cultures" to counteract
the forces of extremism.

The faster France could tie their former Muslim colonies to themselves and push them away from extremist rhetoric the better it will be for the War on Terror. Perhaps France can do with North Africa what the US tried to do with Iraq. Create a pro-West democratic government that isn't a hotbed of Terror and actually prospers. Perhaps France's role as the "Diplomatic Superpower" will be built upon more then just naked self interest and anti-Americanism.

Embattled Gonzales Finally Out

I guess he is really one of the last of the Bushies out the door. The Republicans look like they wanted to remove more distractions before they line up for a try at the Presidency in 2008.

Apart from the president, there were few Republican expressions of
regret following the departure of the nation's first Hispanic attorney general,
a man once hailed as the embodiment of the American Dream.

"Our country needs a credible, effective attorney general who can
work with Congress on critical issues," said Sen. John Sununu of New Hampshire,
who last March was the first GOP lawmaker to call on Gonzales to step down.
"Alberto Gonzales' resignation will finally allow a new attorney general to take
on this task."

The last thing the Republicans need is to have lots of ethics questions hanging over their heads. The better to cut all ties with the Bushies so that the Dems don't get a chance to run against Bush instead of the real GOP contender. Before too long we are going to see Romney or someone denounce Bush in a public forum.

J. Michels Uranium Index 8/27/07

-$377.00 -0.87%

Miss Teen USA Contestant Has a Mind Melt

Now this has to be a really embarassing mind melt on national television.

Question: "Recent polls have shown a fifth of Americans can't locate
the U.S. on a world map. Why do you think this is?"

Lauren Caitlin Upton: "I personally believe... that U.S. Americans are
unable to do so... because... "Uh... some people out there in our nation don't
have maps...

"And... uh... I believe that our education, like such as in South
Africa and... uh... the Iraq, everywhere, like, such as..."And I believe that they should...
"Our education over here in the U.S. should help the U.S... uh..."Or,
should help South Africa and should help the Iraq and the Asian countries... "So we will be able to build up our future... for our [children]."

Miss Teen USA host Mario Lopez: "Thank you very much, South
Carolina."

I'm sure the education here in the U.S. should help the U.S. especially for the U.S. Americans. I wonder why she kept going to the South Africa well over and over though? Maybe she read (or was told) something about South Africa having either junk schools or schools as good as the U.S. Now this is a classic freeze-up that will probably be talked about for years. It is cringe inducing and shows why people have such fear of public speaking as well.

Bill Gross May Wan't Bush to Save Bill Gross

Hmm this is an interesting take on why PIMCO bond guru Bill Gross wants the government to come to the rescue of the mortgage markets.

I see the top bond guru in the world returned a three year average of
3.83% in his "Total Return" Fund. One could have parked money in a money market fund, CDs, a bank, or short term treasuries and done better than that. Digging deeper I see the top five holdings of the Total Return Fund are as
follows.
1) Fannie Mae (FNM)
2) Fannie Mae
3) Fannie Mae
4) Fannie Mae
5) Fannie Mae

So it would certainly be nice for Bill Gross if "W" was the "Decider" and opened up his wallet.