Why Economists Suck with the Crystal Ball

This is a great article on why economic predictions are so off the mark usually. I have noticed that economists almost never get the numbers correct. I have seen predictions of growth and their is a slowdown. Then I see a prediction of a slowdown and then there is unexpected growth. It seems like they are sometimes picking numbers at random. These are the 10 reasons from this article. I wonder if anyone keeps percentages on how close/far off these predictions are to the mark?

1. The forecasting skill of economists is on average about as good as
guessing. In fact, predictions by the politically driven Council of Economic
Advisors, Federal Reserve Board and Congressional Budget Office were often worse than guessing.

2. Economists cannot predict the turning points in the economy. Of 48
predictions made by economists, 46 missed the turning points.

3. Economic forecasting accuracy declines with longer lead times.

4. No economic forecasters consistently lead the pact in accuracy.

5. No economic ideology consistently produces superior forecasts.

6. No economic forecaster has consistently higher forecasting
skills predicting any particular economic statistic.

7. Consensus forecasts do not improve accuracy (although the press
loves them).

8. Psychological bias affects forecasters and their forecasts. Some
economists are naturally optimistic and bullish, others are consistently
pessimistic bears.

9. Increased sophistication provides no improvement in forecasting
accuracy. Remember the Long-Term Capital Management hedge fund? Two brilliant Nobel Economists backed by Wall Street's elite nearly sabotaged the world economy.

10. Finally, Sherden says there's no evidence that economic
forecasting has improved in recent decades. In fact, forecasting appears to be
deteriorating as partisan politics, Wall Street gaming and unpredictable global
events invent new illusions.

Red Cross to Reform itself

It looks like they are trying to push through some much needed reforms. I did not know they had a 50 member board. It must have been like a meeting of the UN general Assembly every time they had a board meeting. Here are the other reforms that they are trying to impliment:

_Explicitly delegating responsibility for day-to-day operations to the Red Cross' full-time professional management, with the board focusing mainly on longer-term strategic oversight.

_Reducing the board of governors to between 12 and 20 members by March 31, 2012. An interim goal is to have no more than 25 members by 2009.

_Creating a single category of board members. Now, most are elected by local chapters, some are elected by the board, and others, including the chairman, are appointed by the U.S. president.

_Shifting seven of the presidentially appointed governors — all but the chairman — into a newly created Cabinet Council that will be merely advisory.

Safeway's Prices are Outrageous

I have shopped quite a bit at Safeway since there is one within walking distance of my apartment. It always seems like their prices are more then anywhere else in Hawaii and this article confirms it. I am part of the Safeway Club thing so it seems like I am getting a deal when I shop there. However it seems that I am getting ripped off.

J.P. Morgan analyst Stephen C. Chick said a food-retail pricing study
showing that prices at Safeway are at an 18.5 percent premium to Wal-Mart, while Kroger's prices were at a 19.6 percent premium to Wal-Mart. That gap makes it hard for the grocery chains to raise their prices in hopes of improving their profits.

"These were still high relative to the premiums 6 months ago,
when SWY (Safeway) was at 27.5 percent and Kroger at 11.5 percent," he wrote in a research note. "As the result of continued price reductions, gross profit
margin expansion is unlikely for the group, despite what the stocks' valuations
seem to imply."

So just 6 months ago prices at Safeway were almost 30% higher then that of Wal-Mart? I know people that comparison shop probably knew this a long time ago but it was quite shocking to see it in print like this. I guess Safeway is pretty good at fooling its customers into paying 30% more (and now just 18.5% more) for the same exact thing you can get at Wal-Mart.

Pretty soon a Whole Food Market is moving into my area and I'll probably do more grocery shopping there instead of the rip off artists from Safeway. I will be willing to pay more for fresh or organic foods that I can't always get.

Vampires Impossible According to Math

It seems that Math trumps Vampires every time.

Efthimiou's debunking logic: On Jan 1, 1600, the human population was
536,870,911. If the first vampire came into existence that day and bit one
person a month, there would have been two vampires by Feb. 1, 1600. A
month later there would have been four, and so on. In just two-and-a-half years
the original human population would all have become vampires with nobody left to feed on.

In some vampire mythos the vampire can feed off of one person up to three times before that person turns into a vampire. That would increase this by a few years before the earth would be thick with vampires. Only in the game Anne Rice novels can vampires feed off of something with blood and not turn it into another vampire.

Cell Phones Make you Infertile?

Now this is ripe for Jay Leno territory.

Within the study group, those men who did not use mobile phones were
found to have average sperm counts of 86million per millilitre. This dropped to
69 million per millilitre for men with mobile phones who used them less than two
hours a day, 59million per millilitre for usage of two to four hours and
50million per millilitre for more than four hours a day.

I think this researcher may need to do more research rather then just making up the causes of this lowering of the sperm count on the fly.

"The effect of mobile phones on sperm may be due to the electromagnetic
radiation the devices emit or to the heat they generate," Dr Agarwal said
yesterday.

I'm pretty sure these guys are not using the cell phone with their crotches. Well with wireless Bluetooth earphones maybe people in Ohio (where the study was conducted) are doing just that. Perhaps they are storing the phones in their underpants while they talk hands free for some freakish reason. However this guy is probably on the right track:

"People who spend more than four hours a day on their mobile phone are
probably not doing physical work. They're probably sitting down for long periods
of time, which increases heat to the scrotal area, which affects sperm
production," Professor Driscoll said.

If you are on a cell phone for 4 entire hours a day then low sperm count will probably be the very least of your worries.

U.S. Starts "Out of Iraq Countdown"

It looks like the Bush Administration has finally switched gears in Iraq in what kind of looks like a purely political move.

General George Casey, who commands 140,000 U.S. troops still in Iraq
despite hopes early this year that a pullout might be under way by election
time, again forecast Iraqis would be able to handle most tasks in 12 to 18
months, with some U.S. support.

So that looks like the timeline for all intents and purposes. It sure is interesting that this revelation comes just two weeks before the election. It makes Bush look like he is actually doing something about Iraq and not just parroting "stay the course over and over."

It finally looks like he has gone to the generals and they gave him a strait answer. It isn't from some leaked reports or crap like that but it is the real deal from the guy commanding the troops. Bush should have done this far sooner and the American people would have had an idea of where we are going in Iraq far sooner. Thus they might have been able to head off what I think would be sure Dem win of the House.

Christmas in October?

It's beginning to look alot like Christmas whether we like it or not.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Target Corp. and J.C. Penney Co. are some
retailers hoping to get consumers into a Christmas shopping frame of mind two
months early. Sears Holdings Corp.'s Sears and Kmart stores kick off the
Yuletide mood in late October or early November. Costco Wholesale Corp. said
it's always put out Christmas ornaments, gift wrap, cards and artificial trees
as early as September.

I guess this is a good deal if your the kind of person that likes to finish their Christmas shopping early.

Wal-Mart Thinks They Are Too Big

Yup they are going to sacrifice capital expenditures to focus on profit growth. So you might see less Wal-Mart stores opening in favor of growing same store sales.

"Our long-term goal is to have our capital expenditures grow at a rate equal
or less than sales growth," said Wal-Mart Chief Financial Officer Tom Schoewe.
"Over time, we expect our new capital efficiency model to reduce the impact of
cannibalization."

I guess they are finally tired of competing with themselves in certain markets. Maybe they will start of focus on bringing up their profit margins or return some of that cashola to their shareholders. I have a feeling that this could be the thing to propel this stock out of that almost 5 year or so trading range the stock has been in.

Why I Don't Mind if the Dems Win the House

It makes the Stock Market go up for the most part. Check out this article.

One of the more noteworthy aspects of the chart given the upcoming election
is that divided executive and legislative branches have generally been good for
the stock market. In fact, in the thirteen instances where the same party did
not control both houses of Congress and the Presidency, the market has risen in
all but two periods for an average gain of 23%, while in the ten periods where
the same party controlled all three branches, the market has risen in seven
periods for an average gain of only 11.3%.

That chart they have on that site is pretty good because it shows which sectors do well in a divided government. The 1981-1985 period is where the Senate and the Executive is controlled by the Repubs and the House is controlled by the Dems. In those years the best performing sector was Consumers Discretionary for one year and Consumer Staples for two years.

China Puts Pressure on North Korea

It looks like the only country that could talk sense into North Korea has just done so.

An Asian diplomat at the United Nations said Friday that Kim's comments to
the Chinese could provide an opening to restart six-party talks. The diplomat,
who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue,
said the United States should not be so dismissive of Chinese efforts and that
Beijing has developed sticks in addition to carrots.

The idea of sticks in addition to carrots is very interesting. I wonder if China threatened North Korea with serious sanctions or maybe even a military response if they didn't ratchet down the tension. I still think it was Chinese operatives that tried to blow up Kim's train at Ryongchon, North Korea in 2004. If they get rid of Kim they can get rid of the wild card that keeps the US in the region and blocks their road to hegemony in Asia.

This is Why France is an Economic Basket Case

Why should their courts have anything to do with how long people in hotels, bars and restaurants work?

On Wednesday the country's highest administrative court -- the state
council -- decided that a 2004 deal under which the 850,000 employees in hotels,
bars and restaurants can work 39 hours a week instead of 35 contravenes the key reform of the last Socialist Party (PS) government.

The decision left an estimated 200,000 businesses in legal limbo,
uncertain over the costs of implementing the measure, as staff expressed fears
that they will see their already low-level incomes shrink still
further.

This is clearly stealing 4 hours of pay right out of the pockets of people who are already not getting a ton of money. This is the kind of "reforms" that keeps Old Europe's growth so stagnate. If people are willing to work 4 more hours then why is the government stopping them. Oh well, this is just another thing that makes us lucky to live in the USA.

Rogues Everywhere Rejoice

It looks like scientists have invented a cloak of invisibility.

It's like a mirage, where heat causes the bending of light rays and cloaks
the road ahead behind an image of the sky.

"We have built an artificial mirage that can hide something from would-be observers in any direction," said cloak designer David Schurig, a research associate in Duke University's electrical and computer engineering department.

Why Yahoo is Doing So Badly

This is according to Henry Blodget. He's calling for Terry Semel to either crack heads or step aside for someone who will. This is pretty much the situation that Yahoo is in now:

From the outside, it seems as though Yahoo!'s senior managers, having
rescued the company from a brush with death, have collectively decided that
they've done enough and that just being "good" is now good enough. (A less
charitable interpretation, one I've floated before, would be that the company
got fat, happy, and lazy.) Unfortunately, Yahoo is now competing against
companies for whom being good isn't enough (Google) as well as against old media giants that are thrilled to finally be playing in the Internet big leagues
(Newscorp). And these companies are kicking Yahoo!'s ass

Yahoo Has a Bad Quarter but Project Panama Goes Live

All of that self advertising is hitting the bottom line this quarter.

Net income for the third-quarter dropped to $159 million, or 11 cents
per share, weighed down by $80 million worth of stock-compensation expenses,
compared with the year-earlier quarters profit of $254 million, or 17 cents per
share.

They have to get rid of some of those options expenses or it will be like an anchor on them. However there is one ray of sunshine that the stock sorely needs. They at last got their new Search Technology called Project Panama online.

Yahoo was supposed to unveil Panama in the third quarter but told
analysts in July that it would come out during the fourth quarter
instead.

But during the conference call, Semel said that Panama was now live
and that the company was in the process of shifting advertisers to it over the
next few months.

Boyd said that it was crucial for Yahoo to not postpone the rollout
of this new search technology any further or else many investors would have
given up hope on the company.

Now if if they can buyout Facebook and make it a success they might be a credible threat to Google's Ad Search supremacy.

Vote for the New 7 Wonders of the World

Here are the finalists for the 7 Wonders of the World contest. You can vote for your favorties at this site. I would probably go with Pyramids, Acropolis, Colosseum, Great Wall, Stonehenge, Taj Mahal, Statue of Liberty.

1 Acropolis, Athens, Greece
2 Alhambra, Granada, Spain
3 Angkor Wat temple, Cambodia
4 Chichen Itza Aztec site, Yucatan, Mexico
5 Christ the Redeemer, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
6 Colosseum, Rome
7 Easter Island Statues, Chile
8 Eiffel Tower, Paris
9 Great Wall, China
10 Hagia Sophia church, Istanbul, Turkey
11 Kyomizu Temple, Kyoto, Japan
12 Kremlin/St.Basil's, Moscow
13 Machu Picchu, Peru
14 Neuschwanstein Castle, Fussen, Germany
15 Petra ancient city, Jordan
16 Pyramids of Giza, Egypt
17 Statue of Liberty, New York
18 Stonehenge, Amesbury, United Kingdom
19 Sydney Opera House, Australia
20 Taj Mahal, Agra, India
21 Timbuktu city, Mali

Tough Life for Goalkeepers

Wow I did not know that this was one of the most dangerous jobs on the Soccer Field.

Bert Trautmann was a German prisoner of war who stayed in England after
World War II and played for Manchester City. At the 1956 FA Cup final at
Wembley, Trautmann dived at the feet of Birmingham City's Peter Murphy and
injured himself. He continued playing for the last 15 minutes of his team's 3-1
victory. He later discovered he had a broken neck.

In 1931, Celtic goalkeeper John Thomson dived at the feet of
Rangers striker Sam English and his head smashed into his opponent's knee.
Thomson never regained consciousness and died soon after.

APPL may have a Merry Christmas

It seems that the Intel Powered Macs may be selling like hotcakes this holiday.

"In a world where a 1% market share change represents $2 billion in
sales, we're forecasting a historic market share shift in the PC space for
laptops and desktops with these new Intel-based Macs," said Tobin Smith, founder of ChangeWave Research and editor of ChangeWave Investing. "Market share grabs like this just don't happen in the PC world. Our numbers say that the Mac is surging."

This could be a really nice add on this holiday season since they are already forcasting brisk IPod sales.

Air America Files for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

I guess the Liberal Talk Radio format just doesn't work in practice. I wonder if the Libs are going to still be going on about the inequality of media outlets now? They had their chance and it ended up going bankrupt.

Air America Radio, the liberal talk and news radio network that features the
comedian Al Franken, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, a network
official told The Associated Press.

Weird Temple

Now this looks like a dreamscape out of a fantasy novel or maybe a D&D adventure.

Buyblue.org has a list of Blue Companies

Upon researching this Blue Fund I came across this site that has a rundown of different "progressive" companies. There are some interesting things on this site that I can actually get on board with. I like the idea of sustainable living and cutting back on oil so we don't have to put more money in the pockets of the Iranian Mullahs and crazy idiots like Chavez. I don't give a crap about Global Warming I just don't want my money to fund suicide bombers and anti-American crazies.