Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Bad News for Google

This is quite an announcement by their CFO.

"Most of what is left is just organic growth," Reyes said on a Webcast from the Merrill Lynch Internet Advertising conference in New York.

"Clearly our growth rates are slowing. We see that each and every quarter," he said. "We are going to have to find new ways to monetize the business."

I like that candor but it really torpedoed the stock. Lots of high hopes were rolled up into that 72 trailing P/E. I think Google should take a page out of Yahoo's book and start selling services on their site. Maybe a Google dating service with the robust searching of their technology allowing people to find a mate. Or sell some java games or something. Hmm, or maybe a buyout offer for Yahoo? That would make an Internet colossus that would make MSFT quake in their boots.

Barry Bonds shows his Scary Feminine Side?

Oh crap, this is a side of Barry Bonds I don't want to see. At least he is loosening up the club house or something like that. And the sad part is they raised only $337 from it.

Interesting Thoughts on First Hour of Trading

Hmm this would be an interesting research project to carry out.

Of course, a 36 session sample is not much to go on. Prodded by my reader's inquiry, I went back to January, 2004 (N = 543 trading days) and examined the number of occasions in which the day's high or low was registered in the first hour. It turns out that we saw daily highs in the first hour on 177 occasions and daily lows in the first hour on 179 occasions. All in all, we saw either a daily high or low in the first hour about two-thirds of the time. It's not quite the 71% quoted by my reader's source, but it's not far from it.

That seems to be something you can trade on for sure. A 75% chance of something happening in the market seems like great odds to me.

Monday, February 27, 2006

New York Times goes after the Pentagon

Looks like the NYT is getting a little froggy here.

The New York Times sued the U.S. Defense Department on Monday demanding that it hand over documents about the National Security Agency's domestic spying program.

The Times wants a list of documents including all internal memos and e-mails about the program of monitoring phone calls without court approval. It also seeks the names of the people or groups identified by it.

I have a feeling that the editors and the reporters there had better have some really clean slates. If they have any skeletons in the closet, secret affairs, or weird associations the NSA might dig it up and give it to the Daily News. And shouldn't this be Congress' job in the first place?

Friday, February 24, 2006

al-Quida admits to attack on Saudi Refinery

It looks like its the usual suspects again. This looks like the second shot in a long term war against Saudi oil infrastructure. This was the first shot:

In May 2004, attackers stormed the offices of a Houston-based oil company in the western Saudi oil hub of Yanbu in fighting that killed six Westerners, a Saudi and the militants. Several weeks later, al-Qaida-linked gunmen stormed oil company compounds in Khobar, on the eastern coast, and took hostages in a siege that killed 22 people, 19 of them foreigners.

This would be an interesting turn of events. Al-Quida really can't get at US as easily as they could before 9/11. They killed some people in the Britain attacks but it looks like the Brits are clamping down their security too.

If they drive up the price for oil then they could cause an economic destabilization of the West. $100 oil will *really* put a dent into spending and some economists have said it will toss us into a recession. Perhaps this destabilization could hurt King Fahds government so badly they could try for some kind of coup de tat and take over Saudi Arabia? Maybe that is too James Bond villian a plan though. Probably al-Quida just bought a mess of oil futures and want to artificially drive up their price.

Dubai Ports World Gives Congress more time

It looks like they are delaying the deal so we can get the lawmakers to shut their yappers. I still can't believe that all this fuss is being made over a legitimate forgien power taking over another company. They happen to be our ally in the war on terror. This isn't the Red Chinese or North Korea or something.

Domenici crystalizes my thoughts on this whole mess:

Sen. Pete Domenici R-N.M., said much of the criticism has an anti-Arab bias.

"We are at war against terrorists, not any religion or ethnicity. Some politicians seem to have forgotten that. ... Such alarm, verging almost on hysteria, harms our efforts to have the broadest coalition possible against worldwide terrorism," Domenici said.

Exactly, if we treat our friends this way we won't have many more left. Some of the statements are even getting into the moonbat territory:

"The fact that you are putting a company in place that could already be infiltrated by al-Qaida is a silly thing to do," said Mike Scheuer, who headed the CIA unit until 1999.

Yup this company is positivly infested with al-Qaida operatives! Shouldn't the CIA have vetted this company already? And if they didn't, can't they start the process now? Even if the deal is in place they can still check this company out. Or are we just going to let this company run wild while the CIA, Homeland Defence, and the Coast Guard just stands around? I have to go back to what my Dad used when he used to work for the Army. "Trust but Verify!"

Commodities Exposure?

Seems like an easy way to get some diversification if you want to trade commodities without losing your shirt.

On Jan. 27, an easily accessible exchange-traded product from Deutsche Bank called the DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund will be listed on the American Stock Exchange under the ticker DBC.

However, its composition will be much narrower than the Rogers product, with exposure to only six commodities. It will have 35% in light sweet crude, 20% in heating oil, 12.5% in aluminum, 11.25% in corn, 11.25% in wheat and 10% in gold.

However this ETF from our friends at iShares looks even better when it comes out:

iShares will have its own commodities ETF soon and that may end up being a better way to go, given the narrow scope of the Deutsche Bank fund.

Maybe with this ETF you too can feel like Mortimer and Randolph Duke from Trading Places and trade in Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ) futures.

Thursday, February 23, 2006

Violence gets crazy after Askariya Shrine bombing

Things seem to be getting dicey in Iraq over the Askariya shrine Bombing.

The hardline Sunni Clerical Association of Muslim Scholars said 168 Sunni mosques had been attacked around the country, 10 imams killed and 15 abducted since the shrine attack. The Interior Ministry said it could only confirm figures for Baghdad, where it had reports of 19 mosques attacked, one cleric killed and one abducted.

Shiites have a right to be mad but of course not violent about it. This Mosque was 1200 years old and was one of the great cultural and artistic achievements of the Muslim world. And scumbags from al-Quida blew it up. This should show in no uncertain terms that al-Quida has nothing to do with religion and only want to spread death and destruction to everyone. Here is a before and after shot taken by the AP:



I think the US should pledge a certain amount of gold or building experts or something to help the Shiites rebuild the place. In other words we should be seen as the rebuilders while al-Quida is seen as the destroyers of Islamic treasures.

I agree with Bush on Portgate

This statement says it all:

The president said he was struck by the fact that people were not concerned about port security when a British company was running the port operation, but they felt differently about an Arab company at the helm. He said the United Arab Emirates was a valuable partner in the war in terror.

Yup, this is more disrespect from the West toward Muslims. These aren't the funamentalist blow-up-Israel-Death-to-America Muslims either. This is a country that is an ally in the War on Terror and has allowed our military ships to land in their port all through the Iraq War.

A British company can go ahead and run those ports without a peep but the second a moderate Muslim state takes control of them all sorts of alarm bells are ringing. If we are going to trust these guys with the lives of our sailors and servicemen landing at their ports we should trust them when they are running the day-to-day activity in ours. The Coast Guard is still on Security duty there.

We need to back these good-guy moderate Muslim States. If we can't trust them then it is true that our only friend in that whole region is Israel. And we will deserve the cold shoulder and the lack of help in the War on Terror that these moderates will be giving us.

UAE Portgate a Big Joke

Now isn't this some stupid statements from Dems on this whole mess.

Brushing aside Bush's assurances, Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan, the panel's ranking Democrat, said the UAE backed the Taliban and allowed financial support for al-Qaida. Levin also charged that the UAE has an "uneven history" as "one of only a handful of countries in the world to recognize the Taliban regime in Afghanistan." He added that millions of dollars in al-Qaida funds went through UAE financial institutions.

Does Levin even know who the other two nations that backed the Taliban? Or did he not get briefed on that info on his march to Get-Bush. The other two nations were Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Yup, both staunch allies in the War on Terror. But Levin throws that around like some sort of indictment. Also perhaps billions of dollars went through Saudi financial institutions and came from Saudi's themselves to fund al-Quida. So are we going to boycott their oil? This is an even more muddle headed statement from you guessed it:

Sen. Hillary Rodham, D-N.Y., also was critical, calling the approval process "a failure of judgment" because officials "did not alert the president, the secretary of the treasury and the secretary of defense" that several of our critical ports would be turned over to foreign country.

Um, they were already turned over to a foreign country if you missed that briefing while getting ready for your presidential run. The country that ran those ports in the first place was a British company. Yes Hillary, Britian is not part of this country. Perhaps she needs to go take a Geography course at the Learning Annex.

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Buy A Hybrid it's Your Patriotic Duty?

I was watching a GE commercial about Alternate Fuels this past weekend and I was struck by the people they used in their commercial. Of course they used these hipster doofuses with soul patches touting "like-Yellow Fuels-dude."

These are the kind of folk that smell of patchouli, are militant Vegans, and like to wave placards that read "Good Soldiers Kill their Officers" at Anti-Bush rallies. In other words fringe elements that the majority of Americans have learned to tune out. I think this is the wrong way for GE to go when it comes to green fuels. These fringe weirdos are already in your camp and using them to push your product hurts your cause. They need to go after the bulk of America with a line like "Green Fuels Means a Safer America."

They need to push the fact that buying Green Fuels means less oil money to fund terror or build Iranian nukes. So it will be your patriotic duty to buy a Hybrid car or fill up your tank with corn and switchgrass. That way we can turn the debate from Green Fuels means a happy world or some other easily tuned out stuff to Green Fuels means safety for America. If they push that safety and patriotism line the thinking will change when it comes to this stuff. This should be Toyotas new sales slogan:

Radioshack's CEO, David Edmondson is out

Well at least he saved the company some trouble by bowing out gracefully. Now the next person, Claire Babrowski got some real work to do. I wonder is she can get the company back on track. Could be a decent turn around play depending on the steps she takes.

I was listening to Squawk Box last night and Carl Quintanilla brought up a great point about Radio Shack. He said that in this Wireless Age the word Radio really doesn't help you sell products. It sounds like the kind of place you want to come to buy a Philco radio to listen to Uncle Miltie on.

Plus you probably won't want to buy high-end electronics from a Shack. It always sounded to me like they are selling you stuff that fell off of the back of a truck. Or it was like a fence or a pawnshop or something. Actually this chart tells to whole tale of Radio Shack:

Bush the Environmentalist?

Wow he sounds like a downright tree hugger with some of the things he is saying now.

There is technology available now, there is the know-how now," Larney said. "What is lacking is leadership on the large scale at the national level."

The White House says Bush is providing that leadership. They say he wants to invest more in zero-emission, coal-fired plants, as well as support solar and wind research, promote cars that run on hydrogen, encourage more nuclear power plant construction and fund work to produce ethanol — not just from corn, but from wood chips and switch grass.

Of course the Libs are seeing shady, ulterior motives to Bush's evironmental push.

Clapp claims the president is promoting renewables because polls show his job approval numbers are being weighed down by Americans' concerns about high utility bills this winter and the cost of gasoline at the pump.

Or course this guy fails to see the real reason why Bush is behind this stuff. He said in no uncertain terms in his State of the Union that he is doing it for national security. We keep getting our energy from unfriendly nations. The moment that environmentalists get wise to this fact the sooner they will be accepted by regular Americans. Oil money goes to fund Jihaddis. Green fuel money goes to fund farmers in the Midwest. It is just that simple.

Japanese Housewives Love to Save

I guess there is a bonus to running the family finances in Japan.

About 46 percent of housewives said they had secret funds, with the sum averaging 2.41 million yen (20,000 dollars), according to a survey of 500 wives in salary-earning households by Sompo Japan DIY Life Insurance.

The hidden savings seem to be accumulating with time, as the average sum was four million yen for housewives in their 50s, nearly three times as much as the 1.46 million yen for those in their 20s.

However Japanese men are only socking a little bit away:

On the other hand, 76 percent of the women believe their husbands keep no such secret money.
Even those who suspect their husbands have funds they don't know about estimate the sum at a modest 364,000 yen.

Friday, February 17, 2006

Radio Shack's Big Mess



They are going to shutter 700 stores and their CEO lied on his resume?

Fourth-quarter earnings fell to $49.5 million, or 36 cents per share, from $130.9 million, or 81 cents per share, a year earlier.

According to Reuters Estimates, excluding 22 cents per share for the inventory write-down and a 2-cent charge for an accounting change, profit would have been 60 cents, which compares with the analysts' average forecast of 66 cents.

Sales rose 5 percent to $1.67 billion, compared with analysts' target of $1.62 billion.

I guess that sales figure was fairly decent though. That 22 cents is a one time deal but missing by 6 cents is big. I guess closing those stores should help the bottom line but I think Radio Shack is just getting their asses beat by the big box electronics retailers. Best Buy and Circuit City both had pretty good quarters but still Radio Shack misses by 6 cents.

This could be a decent short candidate simply because of the CEO controversy. It may get a bump if they fire him though. The new guy they pick needs to be good at a turn around play that will compete with some powerful competitors or we might see Radio Shack shutter more then 700 stores. If they keep the lying CEO Edmondson then all bets are off. Could we see a KKD style implosion of the stock?

US Asks for Aid back from Palestinians

I hope other countries follow our lead.

The money was demanded as part of a full review of all U.S. aid for the Palestinians that began soon after the militant group Hamas' surprise victory in elections last month. A Hamas-led parliament was set to be sworn in on Saturday but it could take several weeks for a Cabinet to be formed.

My tax money better not be funding bomb belts for hapless Palestinian youths. Maybe Bush should use the carrot on this thing though.

For a Hamas government to get direct aid, it would have to renounce violence, recognize Israel, disarm militias and agree to past Israeli-Palestinian agreements.

Why don't we increase aid 10 fold if Hamas does agree to do these things. Kind of like we did with Libya. It probably won't work though. Violence is too deeply ingrained in Hamas for them to take these steps willingly.

Thursday, February 16, 2006

Somewhere over the Rainbow...

Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades hides! I wonder if these guys will be getting 100 male virgins?

Israel to seal up Gaza

It seems the Palestinians are going one step forward and two steps back all the time. At least Abbas is kind of putting Hamas' feet to the fire though.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, meanwhile, will demand that Hamas publicly accept his goal of reaching a peace deal with Israel and recognize past agreements with the Jewish state, officials said. Aides to Abbas declined to say what steps he would take if Hamas rejects his demands.

Notice he doesn't say anything about having Hamas keep that little trifle about destroying Israel out of their charter. And this article goes on to blast the Israelis:

Israel will immediately bar laborers from Gaza from entering Israel, stripping about 4,000 Palestinian families of their main source of income, and halt the movement of Palestinian officials between the West and Gaza, security officials said.

Israel will consider tougher economic sanctions later, including restricting Palestinian exports, the officials said. Barring access to Israel would be devastating for Gaza. The Israeli market is the largest for the impoverished coastal strip, and most of Gaza's exports go through Israeli ports.

Um, Israel doesn't have to be hard-line if Hamas would recognize Israel's right to exist and not want to see them wiped off the map. It looks like we are going to see a return to the poor-Palestine and mean-bully-Israel mentality in the AP. It is Hamas that should be the bad guy until they step forward and take the reigns of state. Israel seems to be just trying to protect themselves from getting blown up again.

Iran Renames the Danish

More crazy stuff from the Mad Mullahs of Iran.

"Given the insults by Danish newspapers against the prophet, as of now the name of Danish pastries will give way to 'Rose of Muhammad' pastries," the union said in its order.

So I guess they will be called RoMs for short. This is as stupid as renaming french fries to freedom fries that went on a few years ago. If Iran truely wants to hurt Denmark then cut off all oil exports to the EU. World markets will surely feel the wrath of Iran then.

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

HP beats the Street

Wow these are some great numbers and they raised next quarters earnings expectations as well:

For the current quarter, HP said it expects a per-share profit before items of 47 cents to 49 cents per share on revenue of $22.4 billion to $22.6 billion.

On that basis, analysts expect a profit of 45 cents per share, on average, within a range of 42 cents to 49 cents per share, on revenue of $22.6 billion.

They also grew every revenue catagory in the company. It looks like CEO Mark Hurd is lightyears better then Carly Fiorina