Wednesday, June 08, 2005
Tyson to Gut Man like Fish!
Uh oh, Mike Tyson is looking to gut McBride like a fish on 6/11. That may not be an idle threat seeing that Tyson bit a man's ear and tried to break a guys arm in the ring. Too bad, Tyson could have been the greatest boxer who ever lived now he is a big joke.
Retailers too Hot to handle for Value Investors
Looks like the value guys are starting to get out of Abercrombie (ANF) and American Eagle (AEOS). They have had a spectacular run up based on pretty solid same store sales increases in the past year. I agree with this comment:
John Buckingham, editor of the top-ranked Prudent Speculator newsletter. "From month to month and quarter to quarter, the 'in' styles can change rapidly, so you've got to stick to a discipline and take some money off the table after a huge gain."
It seems that these two teen age retailers are keeping in front of the trend as best they can. The thing I see though is, ANF especially, is pricing themselves out of the market. Some of their shirts and long pants now cost $70+. Their prices are easily starting to get to the point where a teen needs more then a part time job to afford their clothes. This would be a big problem if teens started to go all out buying a cheaper alternative when they can't afford the real thing.
John Buckingham, editor of the top-ranked Prudent Speculator newsletter. "From month to month and quarter to quarter, the 'in' styles can change rapidly, so you've got to stick to a discipline and take some money off the table after a huge gain."
It seems that these two teen age retailers are keeping in front of the trend as best they can. The thing I see though is, ANF especially, is pricing themselves out of the market. Some of their shirts and long pants now cost $70+. Their prices are easily starting to get to the point where a teen needs more then a part time job to afford their clothes. This would be a big problem if teens started to go all out buying a cheaper alternative when they can't afford the real thing.
United dropping baggage system
At least United is getting out from under this big mess. They are still going to pay the price though:
United will still have to pay $60 million a year under its lease contract for the automated system with the city, United spokesman Jeff Green said. The contract will last for approximately 25 years.
They better renegotiate this thing as soon as possible because they are paying $60 million for nothing at all. The City of Denver is down a bunch on this deal as well:
The $250 million automated system was intended to be a cutting-edge model but turned into a major problem for DIA, one of United's hubs. The city, which owns the airport, spent an additional $100 million for construction and $341 million in interest to try to get it to work.
I guess screw-ups like this is why United is in Chapter 11 right now. United and Denver also looks to have been fleeced by BEA Systems who charged a bunch to install the thing and then even more to get the thing to work right. I guess this is more tech bubble hubris coming home to roost.
United will still have to pay $60 million a year under its lease contract for the automated system with the city, United spokesman Jeff Green said. The contract will last for approximately 25 years.
They better renegotiate this thing as soon as possible because they are paying $60 million for nothing at all. The City of Denver is down a bunch on this deal as well:
The $250 million automated system was intended to be a cutting-edge model but turned into a major problem for DIA, one of United's hubs. The city, which owns the airport, spent an additional $100 million for construction and $341 million in interest to try to get it to work.
I guess screw-ups like this is why United is in Chapter 11 right now. United and Denver also looks to have been fleeced by BEA Systems who charged a bunch to install the thing and then even more to get the thing to work right. I guess this is more tech bubble hubris coming home to roost.
Scientists Misbehavin?
Looks like a suvey is shedding some light on some scientists that cook the results every now and then. This is a statment that struck me:
Nearly 13 percent of those who responded said they'd overlooked "others' use of flawed data or questionable interpretation of data," and nearly 16 percent said they had changed the design, methods or results of a study "in response to pressure from a funding source."
That means a third of the scientists surveyed either cover the asses of their colleagues even if they are wrong or they mess with the results when the money men put the squeeze on them. That is kind of a sobering statistic.
Nearly 13 percent of those who responded said they'd overlooked "others' use of flawed data or questionable interpretation of data," and nearly 16 percent said they had changed the design, methods or results of a study "in response to pressure from a funding source."
That means a third of the scientists surveyed either cover the asses of their colleagues even if they are wrong or they mess with the results when the money men put the squeeze on them. That is kind of a sobering statistic.
Interesting Controversy on Blogumentary
Wow, this is an interesting account of what went on between two men making two different Blog documentaries. Lots of firefights back and forth between the two parties. Near the end of the post there is an opinion given by Kit Jarrell of euphoricreality.net
I didn't know there were documentaries about blogs in the first place let alone two different ones dueling back and forth. I knew some bloggers go on Right-wing talk radio but I didn't know there were movies about this stuff. Oh well whatever the case, it would make an interesting Law and Order episode. Make it a fued between the two bloggers result in a murder that the Law and Order team needs to investigate.
I didn't know there were documentaries about blogs in the first place let alone two different ones dueling back and forth. I knew some bloggers go on Right-wing talk radio but I didn't know there were movies about this stuff. Oh well whatever the case, it would make an interesting Law and Order episode. Make it a fued between the two bloggers result in a murder that the Law and Order team needs to investigate.
Market down slightly waiting on the FED
Amylin setting up for a Short Squeeze?
It could very well be possible. With 17% short interest and with approval of Byetta and Symlin they are going to be generating revenue fairly soon. This is an interesting wrinkle from the article also:
One side effect of Byetta--in addition to nausea--is weight loss, which Kliff views as a positive for diabetics. Patients taking Lantus, says Kliff, tend to gain weight. Early clinical data for another Amylin candidate, Pramlintide, also shows potential for use as a weight-loss agent.
There have been insane problems with weight-loss drugs in the past. (ie Fen Phen) But if Pramlintide does allow people to lose wieght with minor side effects it will be a massive blockbuster. The promise of weight loss with no exercise and no change in eating habits would be like finding the Holy Grail in the rapidly fattening US.
One side effect of Byetta--in addition to nausea--is weight loss, which Kliff views as a positive for diabetics. Patients taking Lantus, says Kliff, tend to gain weight. Early clinical data for another Amylin candidate, Pramlintide, also shows potential for use as a weight-loss agent.
There have been insane problems with weight-loss drugs in the past. (ie Fen Phen) But if Pramlintide does allow people to lose wieght with minor side effects it will be a massive blockbuster. The promise of weight loss with no exercise and no change in eating habits would be like finding the Holy Grail in the rapidly fattening US.
Imclone a good buy?
An interesting story on how Erbitux could be used to help people with head and neck cancer. It seems Carl Ichan likes what he is seeing and has bought 18% of the company. This is the interesting part of the article:
"This could be a large opportunity for ImClone, but it's not a totally underserved (market)," Charles Duncan, an analyst with JMP Securities, said.
"People have thrown out all kinds of numbers...from $500 million to $1 billion," he said.
Whatever the opportunity, it is not fully reflected in today's stock price, he said, adding that the head and neck indication for the drug should put the stock around $42 within the next six months.
The Merrill Lynch guy doesn't think the drug will do that kind of business and has kept his "sell" rating on it. It may be an interesting stock to look into because it is at a 2 year low and there is lots of short interest in it. Many of them may have gotten shaken out today though because IMCL went bonkers today. Up 17% the last time I checked. There still may be upside if this Erbitux thing goes through decently.
"This could be a large opportunity for ImClone, but it's not a totally underserved (market)," Charles Duncan, an analyst with JMP Securities, said.
"People have thrown out all kinds of numbers...from $500 million to $1 billion," he said.
Whatever the opportunity, it is not fully reflected in today's stock price, he said, adding that the head and neck indication for the drug should put the stock around $42 within the next six months.
The Merrill Lynch guy doesn't think the drug will do that kind of business and has kept his "sell" rating on it. It may be an interesting stock to look into because it is at a 2 year low and there is lots of short interest in it. Many of them may have gotten shaken out today though because IMCL went bonkers today. Up 17% the last time I checked. There still may be upside if this Erbitux thing goes through decently.
White House Projects 3.4% annual growth
They are pretty upbeat. They are saying inflation will rise slightly I guess due to high oil prices trickling into the market. And the unemployment rate will drop slightly. I would be pretty happy with 3.4% GDP growth going forward myself.
TiVoToGo, kind of a waste
I think this service by TiVo won't help them much at all. You still have the problem of those portable devices rearing their tiny 3" heads again. I really don't think people are going to risk eye-strain to watch a recorded TV program on the bus.
They may plug the devices into a bigger TV but why can't they just hook up a TiVo machine or a computer to that same TV? Also, I just don't see a bunch of people watching TV at Starbucks or something on little itty-bitty monitors with earphones in their ears.
Listening to music as you walk somewhere or do something else is one thing. TV watching on the other takes a block of time in which you must be stopped and staring. This is the same reason why I don't think TV on the cell phone is going to take off.
Finally, if some people are so busy that they can't even watch a time-shifted TV show then they probably don't watch much TV at all. They won't have a block of time to sit down and stare at a tiny screen to watch American Idol or something. I don't know, maybe I'm missing something with these portable media players.
They may plug the devices into a bigger TV but why can't they just hook up a TiVo machine or a computer to that same TV? Also, I just don't see a bunch of people watching TV at Starbucks or something on little itty-bitty monitors with earphones in their ears.
Listening to music as you walk somewhere or do something else is one thing. TV watching on the other takes a block of time in which you must be stopped and staring. This is the same reason why I don't think TV on the cell phone is going to take off.
Finally, if some people are so busy that they can't even watch a time-shifted TV show then they probably don't watch much TV at all. They won't have a block of time to sit down and stare at a tiny screen to watch American Idol or something. I don't know, maybe I'm missing something with these portable media players.
Hedge Funds buying dollars
Well, this is an interesting story.
"There's no real news prompting this," Dolan said. "It's just a market dynamic. The euro tested the $1.2340 to $1.2350 level, and then triggered some stop losses."
This caused a .06% bump on the dollar and a .04% drop on the Euro. It seems that the hedge funds may be dumping their Euros because of the instability caused by the nixing of the European Constitution. Too bad there is no ETF that is a basket of dollars similar to GLD.
"There's no real news prompting this," Dolan said. "It's just a market dynamic. The euro tested the $1.2340 to $1.2350 level, and then triggered some stop losses."
This caused a .06% bump on the dollar and a .04% drop on the Euro. It seems that the hedge funds may be dumping their Euros because of the instability caused by the nixing of the European Constitution. Too bad there is no ETF that is a basket of dollars similar to GLD.
Tuesday, June 07, 2005
I'm agreeing with Bad Pitt, scary!
I'm agreeing with statement by Brad Pitt about the focus of the media's attention on him.
"It's a strange focus, isn't it? That my relationships or relationship mishaps take precedent over something like that," Pitt said. "I understand it's about entertainment, but man, it's misguided a bit, isn't it?"
The "that" he is referring to is the various charities he is stumping for. Well, Brad of course that is what America is always going to focus on. Celebs stumping for charities are just the background noise of Hollywood. And people like Sean Penn pushing their pet causes down your throat and eating dinner with murderous dictators doesn't help things.
A rich, handsome celeb *must* give back or they will be branded selfish, egotistical, morons. (Well they are still branded that but at least some animals, AIDS patients, downtrodden people sometimes get some money, help, or at least get to hang around with Angelina Jolie.)
He is right that some focus should be on the various credible NGOs out that are out there helping folks. It shouldn't be on his life and who is is currently dating. It is sometimes hard when the entertainment press (and in this case even the star) doesn't seem to care about those organizations at all.
The article says he is against poverty and AIDS in Africa. Well who isn't? Brad himself doesn't even bring up the name of the organization that he is fronting. (He may have in the Sawyer interview, but not here.) How are we supposed to take the focus off of you when you are talking about fruit juice, and 500K pictures, and your no-look policy with the tabloids?
He is blocking the light getting to the poverty-stricken African AIDS victims with his popping around Angelina's bed while his wife is out of town. Then he wonders why people are focusing on that stuff? Uh, Brad maybe you should think about that organization first and your carnal needs second.
"It's a strange focus, isn't it? That my relationships or relationship mishaps take precedent over something like that," Pitt said. "I understand it's about entertainment, but man, it's misguided a bit, isn't it?"
The "that" he is referring to is the various charities he is stumping for. Well, Brad of course that is what America is always going to focus on. Celebs stumping for charities are just the background noise of Hollywood. And people like Sean Penn pushing their pet causes down your throat and eating dinner with murderous dictators doesn't help things.
A rich, handsome celeb *must* give back or they will be branded selfish, egotistical, morons. (Well they are still branded that but at least some animals, AIDS patients, downtrodden people sometimes get some money, help, or at least get to hang around with Angelina Jolie.)
He is right that some focus should be on the various credible NGOs out that are out there helping folks. It shouldn't be on his life and who is is currently dating. It is sometimes hard when the entertainment press (and in this case even the star) doesn't seem to care about those organizations at all.
The article says he is against poverty and AIDS in Africa. Well who isn't? Brad himself doesn't even bring up the name of the organization that he is fronting. (He may have in the Sawyer interview, but not here.) How are we supposed to take the focus off of you when you are talking about fruit juice, and 500K pictures, and your no-look policy with the tabloids?
He is blocking the light getting to the poverty-stricken African AIDS victims with his popping around Angelina's bed while his wife is out of town. Then he wonders why people are focusing on that stuff? Uh, Brad maybe you should think about that organization first and your carnal needs second.
Mrs. Robinson passes away
Looks like Anne Bancroft passed away today. I didn't know she was married to Mel Brooks though.
Apple Folks Like the Intel Deal
Seems they are liking the deal for the most part. It actually gives them the ability to compete with the big computer companies. One thing that the Mac's will really be able to go after is the PC gamer community. Now for the majority of PC games you do not need a special Mac version as far as I can tell.
I am told that the Mac has superior display technology as well. That means the Mac can finally compete toe to toe with other computer makers in this field. That's a nice market segment that they really didn't have before.
This was my main gripe against Macs in the past because I couldn't play the latest and greatest games when they first come out. This changes the equation quite nicely for me. It seems that Jobs is really thinking ahead here.
I am told that the Mac has superior display technology as well. That means the Mac can finally compete toe to toe with other computer makers in this field. That's a nice market segment that they really didn't have before.
This was my main gripe against Macs in the past because I couldn't play the latest and greatest games when they first come out. This changes the equation quite nicely for me. It seems that Jobs is really thinking ahead here.
Why people don't like Portable Media Players
I think their screens are just too small to enjoy any kind of movie. I know I don't want to spend a half hour let alone 2 1/2 hours staring into a 3.5" screen. An Ipod on the other hand simply needs earphones to enjoy all of the music on it. I'm pretty sure it isn't the format because there are quite a few DVD rippers out there. I agree that these features are neat though:
The device has a 3.6-inch LCD panel, FM radio, MP3 audio player, MPEG4 video player, and USB 2.0 interface with On The Go support. There's space for a 1.8-inch hard drive of either 20GB or 30GB capacity depending on customer specification, says Tom Kang, managing director at the Taipei company.
I just wouldn't use the thing to watch many MPEG4 videos though. So one of the main selling points is worthless to me. The rest of those things are interesting but they can be had on an Ipod though. So there is no product differentiation here.
The device has a 3.6-inch LCD panel, FM radio, MP3 audio player, MPEG4 video player, and USB 2.0 interface with On The Go support. There's space for a 1.8-inch hard drive of either 20GB or 30GB capacity depending on customer specification, says Tom Kang, managing director at the Taipei company.
I just wouldn't use the thing to watch many MPEG4 videos though. So one of the main selling points is worthless to me. The rest of those things are interesting but they can be had on an Ipod though. So there is no product differentiation here.
What Greenspan said
Hmm, very interesting stuff about the flattening the yield curve. It is good to know that they are on the case to figure out why it is happening. It is pretty strange and I hope it isn't the calm before the next recession. This is a real eye opener though:
"After its recent very rapid advance, the hedge fund industry could temporarily shrink, and many wealthy fund managers and investors could become less wealthy," Greenspan said.
"Significant numbers of trading strategies are already destined to prove disappointing."
He said, however, that the financial system should escape widespread damage from hedge fund woes as long as banks lending to them managed risks effectively.
If the bigger hedge funds start to freak out I think this would torpedo the markets. Some funds have to unravel large and complicated positions so there will be tons of market volitility. We have seen how oil markets traded erratically because of possible hedge fund activity. This would be even worse depending on which funds "prove disappointing."
"After its recent very rapid advance, the hedge fund industry could temporarily shrink, and many wealthy fund managers and investors could become less wealthy," Greenspan said.
"Significant numbers of trading strategies are already destined to prove disappointing."
He said, however, that the financial system should escape widespread damage from hedge fund woes as long as banks lending to them managed risks effectively.
If the bigger hedge funds start to freak out I think this would torpedo the markets. Some funds have to unravel large and complicated positions so there will be tons of market volitility. We have seen how oil markets traded erratically because of possible hedge fund activity. This would be even worse depending on which funds "prove disappointing."
Market Rally Peters out at the end
GM to cut 25000 jobs
Wow that is quite a reduction of its workforce. I guess that is one way to reduce health care expenses. Get rid of them before they get sick. What GM really needs to do is reduce its reliance on SUVs and large trucks when oil prices are high. Most likely oil prices are going to stay high for the time being. Maybe GM should invest heavily in the hybrid market and become the leader there.
Alabama Teen, Natalee Holloway
Poor girl, went to Aruba for a class outing and disappeared. I have a feeling she was killed and then dumped in the ocean somewhere. No ransom means she probably wasn't kidnapped. Let's hope the two people they caught have some knowledge of the crime. I don't think they do though.
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