It seems Apple is making more money and selling iPhones like crazy but they fell short of what the analysts were forecasting.
Apple posted its second straight quarter of double-digit percentage growth in iPhone sales. The company also
reported net income of $7.7 billion, slightly more than the $7.49
billion that analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected, on revenue
of $37.4 billion, just under the $37.98 billion the analysts had
expected. Per-share profit came in at $1.28, compared with the expected
$1.23, a number adjusted for Apple’s recent 7-for-1 stock split.
What was really interesting is that they increased gross margin from 39.4% from 36.9% from a year ago. Even though there phones are ready for a refresh they were still able to keep prices the same and people paid them in record numbers.
I really think the IBM deal will bring in an influx of business from the corporate end. If you want a tablet for your business then Android is just not ready for prime time. You have to buy these third party apps that connect with your corporate email. You have no idea if they are being made by the NSA or hackers or what. The iPad just works and now IBM could tightly integrate themselves with the iMac and that cubicle machine might go from a Dell to an Apple PC after the next refresh cycle. The consumer market is big and robust but the business market is massive as well.
Tuesday, July 22, 2014
Ackman Lays an Egg in Herbalife "Deathblow"
I guess it was just too good to be true because if you were short Herbalife you got pounded.
Shares of Herbalife rose steadily in the morning after Ackman started giving his talk on Herbalife’s nutritional clubs, increasing by 8% to $58.40 in the first hour of the presentation. Two hours into the talk the stock had risen by 11% to $60. That’s a little higher than the shares were changing hands for on Monday before Ackman drove down the stock by 11%, saying he would be delivering “the most important presentation that I have made in my career.” Ackman had promised in a CNBC interview on Monday that “we won’t disappoint.” Ackman’s presentation was still going on at 1:07 p.m., with the stock up by 15% to $62.22. During the presentation, Ackman suggested that Herbalife had been repurchasing shares in a material way on Tuesday. Shares of Herbalife continued to rise after the three-hour presentation ended, closing at $67.77, up 25% for the day.
I guess it would be up to the FBI and the FDA to look into the claims and release their rulings. In any case the stock is about the same price it was before the "deathblow" was being attempted. I guess if you believe the company is a scam it would be a good place to go short. If not there is a triple bottom in the stock and it will probably go up for a while now.
Shares of Herbalife rose steadily in the morning after Ackman started giving his talk on Herbalife’s nutritional clubs, increasing by 8% to $58.40 in the first hour of the presentation. Two hours into the talk the stock had risen by 11% to $60. That’s a little higher than the shares were changing hands for on Monday before Ackman drove down the stock by 11%, saying he would be delivering “the most important presentation that I have made in my career.” Ackman had promised in a CNBC interview on Monday that “we won’t disappoint.” Ackman’s presentation was still going on at 1:07 p.m., with the stock up by 15% to $62.22. During the presentation, Ackman suggested that Herbalife had been repurchasing shares in a material way on Tuesday. Shares of Herbalife continued to rise after the three-hour presentation ended, closing at $67.77, up 25% for the day.
I guess it would be up to the FBI and the FDA to look into the claims and release their rulings. In any case the stock is about the same price it was before the "deathblow" was being attempted. I guess if you believe the company is a scam it would be a good place to go short. If not there is a triple bottom in the stock and it will probably go up for a while now.
Looks like the Soviets err the Russians Weren't Directly Involved with Shooting Down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17
It was all a mix-up it seems.
They say the passenger jet was likely felled by an SA-11 surface-to-air missile fired by Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine and that Russia "created the conditions" for the downing by arming the separatists.
I guess the Ukrainian separatists shot down the wrong plane thinking it was a troop transport instead of a passenger jet. So slapped-wrists all around, and some "condemn with the strongest possible terms" and play on.
I'm sure Obama was afraid that his luncheon with Jay-Z or whomever was going to get pushed back. Now he can be on Jimmy Kimmel and crack some jokes next week after things go back to normal.
They say the passenger jet was likely felled by an SA-11 surface-to-air missile fired by Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine and that Russia "created the conditions" for the downing by arming the separatists.
They said they did not know if
any Russians were present at the missile launch, and they wouldn't say
that the missile crew was trained in Russia.
A senior official said the most likely explanation was the plane was shot down by mistake.
I guess the Ukrainian separatists shot down the wrong plane thinking it was a troop transport instead of a passenger jet. So slapped-wrists all around, and some "condemn with the strongest possible terms" and play on.
I'm sure Obama was afraid that his luncheon with Jay-Z or whomever was going to get pushed back. Now he can be on Jimmy Kimmel and crack some jokes next week after things go back to normal.
Netflix Goes into Content Overdrive
It seems like Netflix is slowly becoming a major studio in its own right.
“In the coming weeks, we will premiere the all new 4th and final season of The Killing and a new adult animated comedy BoJack Horseman. Also in August, we will release Mission Blue from the Oscar winning director of The Cove, Fisher Stevens.
“Reflecting the increasingly global nature of the Netflix service, we now have original series in production around the world, involving some of the best storytellers working in television and film today. Marco Polo, a historical adventure from Executive Producer Harvey Weinstein, is shooting in Kazakhstan and Malaysia. In New York there is Marvel’s Daredevil, the first of our original series from Marvel Television, as well as the already eagerly anticipated third season of Orange is the New Black; while in Baltimore, production is underway on the third season of House of Cards. In the Florida Keys, the creators of Damages (Glenn Kessler, Daniel Zelman, and Todd Kessler) are shooting a dark family thriller with an ensemble cast led by Kyle Chandler, Sissy Spacek, Sam Shepard, Linda Cardellini, Ben Mendelsohn, and Norbert Leo Butz.
“Sense8, a mind-bending series from the Wachowskis (The Matrix trilogy, Cloud Atlas) and J. Michael Straczynski (Babylon 5), began production in San Francisco last month, is now in Chicago, and will shoot in many international locations this year. In August, production begins in Los Angeles on Grace and Frankie, a comedy led by Jane Fonda, Lily Tomlin, Martin Sheen and Sam Waterston; and in Colombia, Brazilian director José Padilha (Elite Squad, Robocop) will begin filming Narcos with an all-star international cast led by Wagner Moura.
I would be watching Marco Polo for sure because I love the time period. Daredevil if it is good and cleaves to the Frank Miller version of Daredevil and not the horrid Ben Affleck version. I will check out Sense8 as long as it isn't anything like Cloud Atlas which was awful in the extreme. Finally, Narcos might be good if it has lots of action and doesn't pull any punches.
“In the coming weeks, we will premiere the all new 4th and final season of The Killing and a new adult animated comedy BoJack Horseman. Also in August, we will release Mission Blue from the Oscar winning director of The Cove, Fisher Stevens.
“Reflecting the increasingly global nature of the Netflix service, we now have original series in production around the world, involving some of the best storytellers working in television and film today. Marco Polo, a historical adventure from Executive Producer Harvey Weinstein, is shooting in Kazakhstan and Malaysia. In New York there is Marvel’s Daredevil, the first of our original series from Marvel Television, as well as the already eagerly anticipated third season of Orange is the New Black; while in Baltimore, production is underway on the third season of House of Cards. In the Florida Keys, the creators of Damages (Glenn Kessler, Daniel Zelman, and Todd Kessler) are shooting a dark family thriller with an ensemble cast led by Kyle Chandler, Sissy Spacek, Sam Shepard, Linda Cardellini, Ben Mendelsohn, and Norbert Leo Butz.
“Sense8, a mind-bending series from the Wachowskis (The Matrix trilogy, Cloud Atlas) and J. Michael Straczynski (Babylon 5), began production in San Francisco last month, is now in Chicago, and will shoot in many international locations this year. In August, production begins in Los Angeles on Grace and Frankie, a comedy led by Jane Fonda, Lily Tomlin, Martin Sheen and Sam Waterston; and in Colombia, Brazilian director José Padilha (Elite Squad, Robocop) will begin filming Narcos with an all-star international cast led by Wagner Moura.
I would be watching Marco Polo for sure because I love the time period. Daredevil if it is good and cleaves to the Frank Miller version of Daredevil and not the horrid Ben Affleck version. I will check out Sense8 as long as it isn't anything like Cloud Atlas which was awful in the extreme. Finally, Narcos might be good if it has lots of action and doesn't pull any punches.
Obamacare Dealt Blow by Appeals Court: I guess they should have read it before they passed it
It seems that someone flubbed the wording in part of the bill and now it is probably going to the Supreme Court again.
The plaintiffs in the case
argue the way the law was written does not allow for subsidies to be
provided by the federal government, pointing to a statute that says
subsidies should be issued to plans purchased "through an Exchange established by the State under Section 1311"
of the Affordable Care Act. Section 1311 establishes the state-run
exchanges. But plaintiffs say the law does not permit subsidies in
federal exchanges, according to Section 1321 of the law.
All they needed was to cut the "by the State" part of that sentence and they would have been in the clear. Instead they might get a major part of the bill thrown out.
Monday, July 21, 2014
Herbalife's Last Stand: Ackman to Present "Pyramid Scheme" Presentation
Depending on how the Federal Trade Commission takes his investigation you might not have Herbalife to kick around anymore.
Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman said on CNBC today that he would give the "most important" presentation of his career on Tuesday when he unveils an investigation into Herbalife's nutrition clubs.
It's Ackman's contention that the company operates as a "pyramid scheme" that targets lower-income individuals. He believes that regulators, specifically the Federal Trade Commission, will be persuaded to shut it down. Back in March the FTC launched an investigation in the company.
Too bad I didn't get short this thing when it was in the mid 60s. I have a feeling if this investigation is a "bomb-shell" as some people think we might get a trading halt tomorrow.
Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman said on CNBC today that he would give the "most important" presentation of his career on Tuesday when he unveils an investigation into Herbalife's nutrition clubs.
It's Ackman's contention that the company operates as a "pyramid scheme" that targets lower-income individuals. He believes that regulators, specifically the Federal Trade Commission, will be persuaded to shut it down. Back in March the FTC launched an investigation in the company.
Too bad I didn't get short this thing when it was in the mid 60s. I have a feeling if this investigation is a "bomb-shell" as some people think we might get a trading halt tomorrow.
Friday, July 18, 2014
Pricing In Geopolitical Uncertainty
This article makes quite a bit of sense when it comes to things like the downing of the Malaysian Airlines jet and the invasion of Gaza by the Israelis.
In a repricing of risk scenario, we start to see good news ignored and people less willing to pay a higher multiple for stocks – even when they’ve announced results or initiatives that would clearly deserve it. Our inability to become excited by great news or fresh developments becomes evident in this way only over time. The inner monologue goes something like this: “Wow, I’m really impressed that Chipotle just shocked The Street with double-digit same store comps this month…but, my god, 300 passengers on a civilian airline were just shot out of the sky over Eastern Europe!” That extra lot of shares simply doesn’t get bought. People become resigned to hold what exposure they already have until “all that uncertainty dies down.” Obviously, the media plays a major role in this phenomenon, feeding it around the clock on screens everywhere. Don’t be mad, it’s kind of their job.
I have seen this repricing risk scenario over and over when it comes to things that are not as shattering as 9/11. People freak out due to "uncertainty" and stop buying on good news but sell momentum stocks on bad news. The only think concrete that might hurt the American consumer would be higher gas prices due to sanctions. Most airlines will now avoid the Ukraine and may need to use more fuel but nothing that would hurt them long-term. You would figure that the vast majority of companies as well as American and European consumers will not be affected materially.
However the fear factor caused by the event which is compounded by the 24 hour news cycle (as this article points out) usually casts a pall over the markets until something wakes it up. So if and when we get a cease-fire between the Ukraine and Russia we will see the market go back to normal. For whatever reason the market rallied today so maybe even that bit of wisdom is off the mark.
In a repricing of risk scenario, we start to see good news ignored and people less willing to pay a higher multiple for stocks – even when they’ve announced results or initiatives that would clearly deserve it. Our inability to become excited by great news or fresh developments becomes evident in this way only over time. The inner monologue goes something like this: “Wow, I’m really impressed that Chipotle just shocked The Street with double-digit same store comps this month…but, my god, 300 passengers on a civilian airline were just shot out of the sky over Eastern Europe!” That extra lot of shares simply doesn’t get bought. People become resigned to hold what exposure they already have until “all that uncertainty dies down.” Obviously, the media plays a major role in this phenomenon, feeding it around the clock on screens everywhere. Don’t be mad, it’s kind of their job.
I have seen this repricing risk scenario over and over when it comes to things that are not as shattering as 9/11. People freak out due to "uncertainty" and stop buying on good news but sell momentum stocks on bad news. The only think concrete that might hurt the American consumer would be higher gas prices due to sanctions. Most airlines will now avoid the Ukraine and may need to use more fuel but nothing that would hurt them long-term. You would figure that the vast majority of companies as well as American and European consumers will not be affected materially.
However the fear factor caused by the event which is compounded by the 24 hour news cycle (as this article points out) usually casts a pall over the markets until something wakes it up. So if and when we get a cease-fire between the Ukraine and Russia we will see the market go back to normal. For whatever reason the market rallied today so maybe even that bit of wisdom is off the mark.
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
4 Star Marine General Blasts Obama on Iraq
I guess he can finally speak his mind now that he is about to retire later this year.
Speaking at the Brookings Institute Tuesday, Amos said the Obama administration paved the way for the emergence of the Islamic State of Syria and Iraq (ISIS) by completely withdrawing American troops in 2011.
“I
have a hard time believing that had we been there, and worked with the
government, and worked with parliament, and worked with the minister of
defense, the minister of interior, I don't think we'd be in the same
shape we're in today,” Amos said.
That is pretty much an affirmative. If you cut and run you have no say in what happens going forward. Instead we get to go back in with the odds stacked against us. What is sad is that Iran will probably pull the strings and fill the gap we gave up. Maybe that is Obama's plan all along.
Fish Oil Might Prevent Alzheimer’s Disease?
It seems fish oil is like a wonder drug according to this.
Fish oil
is touted as a magical potion that boosts fertility, heart health, and
weight loss and promotes a clear complexion, while lessening the effects
of depression, ulcers, diabetes and many more conditions. But there’s
another benefit to these glossy little capsules: They may prevent Alzheimer’s disease.
A new study of 819 people
published in the journal Alzheimer’s & Dementia found that taking
fish oil supplements on a daily basis is associated with a significant
decrease in cognitive decline (as measured by the Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale
and the Mini Mental State Exam) and brain atrophy — important findings
in light of statistics that show that one person per minute is diagnosed
with Alzheimer’s disease.
I know certain biotechs are using concentrated fish oil for various purposes. Hmm might be time to invest in some and see what it does.
Friday, July 11, 2014
Is ISIS vs. the Iraqi Government going to the First Shots in a 30 Years War of Islam?
So this thing is degenerating into a Shiite vs. Sunni war that could easily turn into a massive region-wide conflagration. Recently ISIS said they were going to destroy Mecca.
I'm sure the Saudis will do everything they can to end the threat to the place that they are supposed to guard with everything they have. What I have been thinking is that this might be the first shots fired in what could be The 30 Years War of Islam. This book on the 30 Years War is what got me thinking.
The 30 Years War started in 1617 and was basically a number of Catholic powers fighting against a number of Protestant powers. It was the last major all-out war of the Reformation basically because it was terribly destructive and resulted in hideous tortures. Some states in what is now Germany and Czech Republic were nearly wiped out and others suffering 30-40% losses. Some sources say that 50% of all the men in the German states were killed. It strikes me that an all-out war between the Sunni ISIS and the Shiite Iranians, Saudis protecting their holy sites and the Iraqis might be a similar conflict.
In fact we have may of the the parts already in place. We have bloodthirsty zealots on one side and an army that can give no quarter on the other. All we need are foreign mercenaries (gulp, maybe that is the USA?) to come in and start fighting to have us back in 1617 again.
During the 30 years war we start with battles in Bohemia (Syria) then Spain intervened (that might be Sunni zealot part of the Middle East.) Then we have the Danish come in on the side of the Protestants (that might be the Saudis protecting their holy sites) Then the Swedes come in on the side of the Protestants (this would be Iran.) Finally France came in at the end (that would probably be Turkey since the French were mostly fighting the Hapsburgs and not the Catholics as a group.) We might even see the birth of the Dutch Republic (that would be Kurdistan.)
I'm sure if the Iranians enter the war in any numbers they might be able to sweep the field of ISIS but not before we might see some serious bad things happen. ISIS now has some uranium so a dirty bomb can be cooked up and used on Baghdad or perhaps Tehran. That would seriously push Iran and Iraq closer together. Also if I was Iran in "the Great Game" I would conclude a status of forces agreement to garrison troops in Iraq so an ISIS can never form up again. What would be really bad for Islam is an ISIS suicide bomber could blow up something in Mecca. So many pilgrims pack into places like the Ka'aba or Mina that a bomber could easily kill 10,000 people or more from an explosion followed by a stampede.
In any case history doesn't usually repeat itself but every now and then it sure rhymes.
What a Meteroric Rise and Fall: Axelle Despiegelaere Dropped From L'Oreal After Wanting to Hunt Americans
She went from pretty face cheering on Belgium at the World Cup to L'Oreal model to threatening to hunt Americans in about a week.
But fans were outraged after
Axelle recently posted a photo of herself to Facebook in which she is
holding a rifle, proudly sitting behind what appears to be a dead
gazelle she shot while hunting.
The caption, in reference
to the World Cup match, read: "Hunting is not a matter of life or death.
It's much more important than that..this was about 1 year ago...ready
to hunt Americans today haha."
After feeling the heat from
fans, Axelle apologized in the comments section of her post, saying "i
didn't mean to offend anyone..it was a joke."
Haha, hunting people is a funny joke. She may have a job working for ISIS, the Taliban or some other "Death to America" Islamist group. In any case that is fame and infamy in the Facebook era.
Thursday, July 10, 2014
German Newspaperman Accuses Obama of Being European: Yeah I have to Agree
Truer words have never been spoken.
In an op-ed in The New York Times,
Clemens Wergin, the foreign editor of the newspaper group Die Welt, suggested
that Obama’s international policies more closely align with those of moralizing
yet passive German politicians.
“At the height of the Syria conflict
and just after yet another of Barack Obama’s speeches, I suddenly understood
the problem with this American president and his foreign policy. He sounded
just like a German politician: all moral outrage, but little else to help end
one of the most devastating civil wars of our age,” Wergin wrote. “President
Obama, I thought with a sigh, has become European.”
Yup lots of words signifying nothing is Obama's MO. First Syria and his red lines and now ISIS is killing people and forming a Caliphate in Iraq and Syria and only Putin is delivering warplanes to the Iraqis. Sounds like quite a few European politicians of the past. Thunder about something and then do absolutely nothing as a follow-up.
op-ed in The New York Times,
Clemens Wergin, the foreign editor of the newspaper group Die Welt,
suggested that Obama’s international policies more closely align with
those of moralizing yet passive German politicians.
“At the height of the Syria conflict and just after yet another of Barack Obama’s speeches, I suddenly understood the problem with this American president and his foreign policy. He sounded just like a German politician: all moral outrage, but little else to help end one of the most devastating civil wars of our age,” Wergin wrote. “President Obama, I thought with a sigh, has become European.”
- See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/07/10/Obama-s-America-Becoming-More-European#sthash.V5rXNw1F.dpuf
“At the height of the Syria conflict and just after yet another of Barack Obama’s speeches, I suddenly understood the problem with this American president and his foreign policy. He sounded just like a German politician: all moral outrage, but little else to help end one of the most devastating civil wars of our age,” Wergin wrote. “President Obama, I thought with a sigh, has become European.”
- See more at: http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/07/10/Obama-s-America-Becoming-More-European#sthash.V5rXNw1F.dpuf
Retail Sales Up 5.5% but Are Pretty Lumpy; Home Despot Hurting
It seems that some retailers are doing great while others are getting hammered.
Most retailers reporting monthly fared well in June. Warehouse club and typical top retail performer Costco reported a solid 6% rise in June same-store sales, aided in part by higher fuel prices. It beat views for a 5% gain, says Perkins. Core U.S. same-store sales were also up 6%, topping forecasts for a 5.3% increase.
Giant drugstore operator Walgreen reported a 7.5% rise in June same-store sales on July 3, beating forecasts for a 6.8% increase. That same day rival Rite Aid posted a same-store sales increase of 3.9% in June, besting views for a 2.6% gain.
Action sports retailer Zumiez posted a 3.1% gain in June same-store sales late Wednesday, well ahead of views for a 2.3% gain.
So we have Costco and Walgreen doing great. Costco might be a better bellweather than Walmart when it comes to the US retail picture. I remember going to Costco the Thursday before 4th of July and it was a madhouse. Every parking space was full with people buying giant piles of soda, hotdogs, strawberries, etc. Some people were even buying big screen TVs as well. Maybe to watch the World Cup?
Most retailers reporting monthly fared well in June. Warehouse club and typical top retail performer Costco reported a solid 6% rise in June same-store sales, aided in part by higher fuel prices. It beat views for a 5% gain, says Perkins. Core U.S. same-store sales were also up 6%, topping forecasts for a 5.3% increase.
Giant drugstore operator Walgreen reported a 7.5% rise in June same-store sales on July 3, beating forecasts for a 6.8% increase. That same day rival Rite Aid posted a same-store sales increase of 3.9% in June, besting views for a 2.6% gain.
Action sports retailer Zumiez posted a 3.1% gain in June same-store sales late Wednesday, well ahead of views for a 2.3% gain.
So we have Costco and Walgreen doing great. Costco might be a better bellweather than Walmart when it comes to the US retail picture. I remember going to Costco the Thursday before 4th of July and it was a madhouse. Every parking space was full with people buying giant piles of soda, hotdogs, strawberries, etc. Some people were even buying big screen TVs as well. Maybe to watch the World Cup?
I'm not sure why Zumiez is doing so much better than other teen retailers though. Maybe it is just more foot traffic going into the store. I mean the dark and freaky look of Abercrombie with its shirt less dudes and booming music is finally wearing out its welcome.
However it seems that Home Despot and Lumber Liquidators is dropping like a stone.
The report didn't bode well for the home goods sector: "Our reduced
customer traffic has coincided with certain weak macroeconomic trends
related to residential remodeling, including existing home sales, which
have generally been lower in 2014 than the corresponding periods in
2013," said CEO Robert Lynch in a press release. "We now believe the
prolonged purchase cycle associated with our customers' discretionary,
large-ticket home improvement projects is likely to be delayed for some
customers into the fall flooring season, and for others, into spring of
2015."
People just aren't fixing up their homes at such a high clip anymore. Maybe they are looking at it as less of an investment and more of a place they will stay in for a long time. So the need for hard-wood floors or granite counter-tops or whatever that look good to a home flipper aren't as important as other factors to someone that will live in that home for years.
People just aren't fixing up their homes at such a high clip anymore. Maybe they are looking at it as less of an investment and more of a place they will stay in for a long time. So the need for hard-wood floors or granite counter-tops or whatever that look good to a home flipper aren't as important as other factors to someone that will live in that home for years.
Or maybe people are saving more money and don't want to drop $1000s for something that merely looks good and is not very functional. That money could be better saved for a rainy day especially if it was years since that person was last employed. Even if a consumer just heard of someone that was unemployed for years it might put them in a mindset that it is better to bank that money. It is better to have a margin of safety instead of really nice wooden flooring.
6 More Dumb Republicans that Want Obama Impeached: Um, Wait Two Years and Term Limits Does it For You
I am so tired of impeachment talk from the far right idiots that are in the GOP.
Has President Obama’s use of the “pen and phone” to circumvent Congress gotten out of hand?
Some members of the GOP seem to think so.
Even as the embattled president fights criticism over the escalating humanitarian crisis on the U.S.-Mexico border, the release of Arm. Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl in return for five prisoners from Guantanamo Bay, and the botched rollout of the Affordable Care Act, a mounting chorus of Republicans are calling for impeachment.
If the GOP wins the Senate it will be a de facto impeachment because Obama really cannot do anything very drastic that can't be backed out in 2016. Instead we have Sarah Palin talking impeachment and it is such a waste of time. Work to get the Senate instead of wasting time on this sort of thing.
Wal-Mart's Stagnant Sales: Maybe People Just Don't Want More Crap from Foreign Countries?
It seems that employment is doing better but Wal-Mart is not seeing the results.
I think it might be people are just tired of buying more and more crappy stuff for cheap from Wal-Mart. In fact I am hoping it is priorities changing among people in the US. Maybe they won't just go out and buy a ton of crap that sits in a room somewhere unused. Maybe the Great Recession is getting people to get more use out of the things they have.
I think one factor is if you walk around Wal-Mart you just see better options at other retailers. If you want clothes you can get something for a similar price at H&M, Old Navy, or American Apparel. If you want food you can get a better deal at Costco. If you need cold medicines and drugs Wal-Greens and CVS has deals all the time. Finally, if you need housewares or electronics then Amazon can give you all that for cheap.Wal-Mart is left in the middle where people just don't need 12 more wash cloths for $2.99 when they already have a brace of them.
At my local Wal-Mart there was a huge rack of 100s of bales of washcloths that almost no one is going to buy. All of them were probably made in Bangladesh or somewhere and are indicative of the quantity over everything maxim of Wal-Mart. I was like they can never sell all of these washcloths in a million years. I hoping the paradigm changes where Americans would rather have a few good washcloths or maybe just use some of them they bought a few years ago instead of simply buying that huge bale every few months.
Wal-Mart U.S. CEO Bill Simon has remarked in interviews that the discount retailer isn’t seeing the gains in employment trickling down to the chain’s cash registers. Simon said to CNBC:
“I
think the economic numbers – the unemployment numbers in particular –
have been difficult to read with the number of people dropping out of
the workforce. And I think it’s going to take a while – six months or
more – for the numbers to balance out…. Hopefully after six years, we're
starting to gain a little bit of traction and that traction is coming
at the top end. I think the middle and down is still pretty challenged.”
I think one factor is if you walk around Wal-Mart you just see better options at other retailers. If you want clothes you can get something for a similar price at H&M, Old Navy, or American Apparel. If you want food you can get a better deal at Costco. If you need cold medicines and drugs Wal-Greens and CVS has deals all the time. Finally, if you need housewares or electronics then Amazon can give you all that for cheap.Wal-Mart is left in the middle where people just don't need 12 more wash cloths for $2.99 when they already have a brace of them.
At my local Wal-Mart there was a huge rack of 100s of bales of washcloths that almost no one is going to buy. All of them were probably made in Bangladesh or somewhere and are indicative of the quantity over everything maxim of Wal-Mart. I was like they can never sell all of these washcloths in a million years. I hoping the paradigm changes where Americans would rather have a few good washcloths or maybe just use some of them they bought a few years ago instead of simply buying that huge bale every few months.
Wednesday, July 09, 2014
Is it "The Era of Malaise" That is Causing all the Stock Market Bubble Talk?
I have to hand it to Minyanville because I think they hit the nail on the head with this article.
So why is everything grinding onward and upward, making everyone feel as if things are overdone and sliding imminently toward the abyss? My belief is that it is a continuation of the politically driven emotions I dubbed "The Malaise" in one of these notes penned back in August of 2010. Politics and the divisive emotions surrounding politics have continued to grow more volatile, further away from consensus; and with the death of truly "fair and balanced" media outlets (at least any that are widely read or heard), public opinion continues toward the negative on both sides.
This is can explain quite a lot about peoples thoughts on the market as it grinds higher into record territory. America is firmly entrenched into two warring camps. Each side has party organs and an echo chamber for them to reinforce their ideas. Fox News and Talk Radio fills conservatives with the idea that "the socialists are destroying this country and their way of life." While MSNBC, Hollywood and the rest of the media fills liberals with the idea that "the Koch brothers, Christians, and evil White guys are destroying this country and are literally killing people with global warming, fatty food, pollution, guns, racism, income inequality etc."
So why is everything grinding onward and upward, making everyone feel as if things are overdone and sliding imminently toward the abyss? My belief is that it is a continuation of the politically driven emotions I dubbed "The Malaise" in one of these notes penned back in August of 2010. Politics and the divisive emotions surrounding politics have continued to grow more volatile, further away from consensus; and with the death of truly "fair and balanced" media outlets (at least any that are widely read or heard), public opinion continues toward the negative on both sides.
This is can explain quite a lot about peoples thoughts on the market as it grinds higher into record territory. America is firmly entrenched into two warring camps. Each side has party organs and an echo chamber for them to reinforce their ideas. Fox News and Talk Radio fills conservatives with the idea that "the socialists are destroying this country and their way of life." While MSNBC, Hollywood and the rest of the media fills liberals with the idea that "the Koch brothers, Christians, and evil White guys are destroying this country and are literally killing people with global warming, fatty food, pollution, guns, racism, income inequality etc."
This thinking infects the idea of a stock market bubble at many levels. So we have the GOP wanting a crash because it will hurt Obama and economic pain will usher them to victory. They say the jobs numbers are wrong and cheer when our GDP growth is terrible like in the first quarter of this year. The GOP used to be pro-growth but they don't want to give Obama credit for anything. They even call the Import/Export bank "crony capitalism" and the stock market gains a sham created by Obama's point woman Janet Yellen. Hell, they want to abolish the FED and shut down the government if they don't get their way.
The Dems want a crash because it will hurt the Fat-cat bankers and take care of some income inequality by making the rich suffer. The only reason the stock market is up is because of a bubble caused by funny money that should be going into social programs, and not into the pocket of rich white guys. They want to either see those rich white guys suffer with 90% taxation or a huge crash that wipes them out.
The worse part is all a 0-sum gain to these people. The above-mentioned article points out that a 60% win is equal to a 100% loss in this "era of Malaise." I would love to see corporate taxes lowered but the Tea Party says it is "corporate welfare that we cannot afford," the mainstream GOPers fear the Tea Party, and the Dems can't back it because they think corporate tax rates are actually too low. Even cutting middle class taxes will probably not happen because a win for the GOP would be a loss for the Dems and vice versa.
So we have every political side rooting against the stock market because it will hurt the other guy. Then we have a Caliphate forming in Iraq and Syria, the Kurds succeeding, Israelis and Palestinians shooting rockets at each other again. The Ukraine fighting against Russian separatists and North Korea firing its own missiles every now and again. That is a wall of worry if I ever seen one. So I think stocks grind higher with people getting more and more pissed off that it is happening. I have to finally agree with this assessment:
The recent rebalancing
to bring our core portfolios back in line with the target allocations,
and also raise a little bit of cash, certainly feels like the right
move. Again, our opinion is and always will be, that investing for the
long term should be thought of as operating a rheostat and not a light
switch. It's not "risk on / risk off" -- it's turning up the wick and
backing it down at times, but the flame continues to burn.
I have been doing this for the most part by selling off winners and holding cash looking for a place to put it to work. If the market corrects it will be time to jump in with both feet.
Sarah Palin Plays the Idiot Card: Calls for Obama's Impeachment. You Know He is Gone in 2016 Right?
Why can't she just disappear into the dustbin of history?
The former Alaska governor and Fox News contributor launched her attack yesterday on the conservative Breitbart News website, and she came out swinging:
“Enough is enough of the years of abuse from this president. His unsecured border crisis is the last straw that makes the battered wife say, ‘no mas.’…
“It’s time to impeach; and on behalf of American workers and legal immigrants of all backgrounds, we should vehemently oppose any politician on the left or right who would hesitate in voting for articles of impeachment.”
You know he gets "impeached" by term limits in 2 short years right? In any case I guess Fox just loves putting megaphones in front of her so we have to endure her for years.
The former Alaska governor and Fox News contributor launched her attack yesterday on the conservative Breitbart News website, and she came out swinging:
“Enough is enough of the years of abuse from this president. His unsecured border crisis is the last straw that makes the battered wife say, ‘no mas.’…
“It’s time to impeach; and on behalf of American workers and legal immigrants of all backgrounds, we should vehemently oppose any politician on the left or right who would hesitate in voting for articles of impeachment.”
You know he gets "impeached" by term limits in 2 short years right? In any case I guess Fox just loves putting megaphones in front of her so we have to endure her for years.
Tuesday, July 08, 2014
Germany's Toni Kroos Inadvertently Rubs it In Against Brazil after Whipping Them
I have a feeling that Kroos might have given this sound-bite in a language other than German.
"Of course," said Germany midfielder Toni Kroos, the Man of the Match, when asked if he felt pity for the Brazilians.
"Normally the difference is not
that big as it was today. They have great players and they had the
higher pressure on their shoulders. We didn't allow them to become
dangerous. We took all the balls from them."
Wow took all the balls from them? Double meaning much?
Monday, July 07, 2014
Al Gore Forgets the Gloom and Doom: Cites Solar as the Remedy to Climate Change
You add this to natural gas and we will have emissions down considerably in a decade or so.
Now a new report gives reasons for Gore’s optimism. Research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts renewable energy will account for 49 percent of the world’s power by 2030, with another 6 percent coming from carbon-free nuclear power plants. Solar, wind, and other emissions-free sources will account for 60 percent of the 5,579 gigawatts of new energy capacity expected to be installed between now and 2030, representing 65 percent of $7.7 trillion that will be invested.
Also solar energy will get more and more efficient as the next generation of panels get more and more advanced. I would love to see the climate science industry go the way of the guys that read head bumps back in the day. I mean if we can get emissions down to pre-"pick the time period" levels then it will be capitalism that comes along and "saves the day."
One thing that is interesting about solar power is that once you buy the panels and the generators and such you really don't have to worry about a supply of raw materials. So the Red Chinese don't have to worry about importing US natural gas for instance. They can make the solar cells themselves and have a completely closed system of generating new power. That is a big advantage of solar over coal since UN sanctions won't cut off your electricity lifeline.
Now a new report gives reasons for Gore’s optimism. Research firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts renewable energy will account for 49 percent of the world’s power by 2030, with another 6 percent coming from carbon-free nuclear power plants. Solar, wind, and other emissions-free sources will account for 60 percent of the 5,579 gigawatts of new energy capacity expected to be installed between now and 2030, representing 65 percent of $7.7 trillion that will be invested.
Also solar energy will get more and more efficient as the next generation of panels get more and more advanced. I would love to see the climate science industry go the way of the guys that read head bumps back in the day. I mean if we can get emissions down to pre-"pick the time period" levels then it will be capitalism that comes along and "saves the day."
One thing that is interesting about solar power is that once you buy the panels and the generators and such you really don't have to worry about a supply of raw materials. So the Red Chinese don't have to worry about importing US natural gas for instance. They can make the solar cells themselves and have a completely closed system of generating new power. That is a big advantage of solar over coal since UN sanctions won't cut off your electricity lifeline.
Thursday, July 03, 2014
Global Warming Causes Sea Ice to Grow: Wait, what?
This is exactly why Global Warming scientists have such a hard time and have to "hide the decline" so much to get people to believe them.
I thought there would be no sea ice at all in 2012 and we would have 12 foot higher oceans or something. Now we have a record amount of sea ice? This is why the public with a cursory knowledge of climate change can be so skeptical about it. We get told two conflicting things and since the science is settled we have to believe them and pour billions into the UN or whomever so they can save us.
Antarctica’s sea ice set another record this week, reaching 815,448 square miles above normal, breaking a record set this past weekend of 800,776 square miles above normal ice coverage.
These two records set within a week of one another shattered the previous ice extent record of 710,428 square miles above average that was set back on December 20, 2007.
But record-breaking ice coverage still worries scientists who argue that it’s being caused by global warming.
“The primary reason for this is the nature of the circulation of the Southern Ocean — water heated in high southern latitudes is carried equatorward, to be replaced by colder waters upwelling from below, which inhibits ice loss,” Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, told author Harold Ambler in an email.
I thought there would be no sea ice at all in 2012 and we would have 12 foot higher oceans or something. Now we have a record amount of sea ice? This is why the public with a cursory knowledge of climate change can be so skeptical about it. We get told two conflicting things and since the science is settled we have to believe them and pour billions into the UN or whomever so they can save us.
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