Largest Black Hole Found in constellation Cancer

This thing tips the scale at 18 billion times more massive then our sun. It is also orbited by another smaller black hole as well as powering a quasar. Now that is one interesting system.

This particular quasar has a regularly pulsing light signal with two major
pulses every 12 years. The first two pulses were observed in the year 1994-1995,
and the first one of the next set in 2005. The observations helped astronomers
refine their computer models, predicting the next pulse would come on Sept. 13,
2007.

I wonder why this quasar is so regular like this? A massive pulse every 12 years is pretty odd. You would figure something like energy falling into a black hole would more random and chaotic and send out bursts with no pattern. But this quasar seems to shoot the energy out every 12 years. Strange stuff.

J. Michels Video Game Index 1/9/08

+$289.25 +0.66%

J. Michels Uranium Index 1/9/08

+$173.00 +0.31%

Great Article on Renewable Energy in 2008

This is a great article that is saying solar stocks are selling off due to valuation concerns but wind, biofuels, and energy efficiency stocks are the ones to watch in 2008. These are the stocks that the article mentions. I think I'll take a look at these international wind companies to see what they look like.:

Solar:
SunPower (SPWR), Evergreen Solar (ESLR), Suntech (STP), and First Solar (FSLR)
Wind:
Zoltek (ZOLT), American Superconductor (AMSC), Spain's Gamesa, India's Sulzon, Denmark's Vestas
Biofuels:
Verasun's (VSE), Pacific Ethanol (PEIX), Cosan (CZZ), Nova Biosource Fuels (NBF)
Energy Efficiency:
Orion (OESX), Itron (ITRI), Cree (CREE)
Solar Panel Electronics Plays:
Applied Materials (AMAT), Vecco (VECO)

Warner Bros. to Fire 1000

It looks like the writers strike is going to claim some victims from WB and it should get far worse then that if this thing isn't settled soon.

The studio distributed legally mandated warning notices on November 12, five
days after the Writers Guild of America walkout began, stating that recipients
could be subject to layoff after 60 days. The notices represent the first
concrete sign that the strike could trigger massive job cuts across
Hollywood.

S&P500 Drop Could Be Recession "Tell"

This commentator thinks that the S&P500s peak a few months back and the subsequent drop is indication of a looming recession. This S&P500 "tell" is 8-1 since 1953 so it might be an interesting thing to check out. So this means that we have another 7.4% more to drop before we reach that 16.9% price decline from peak to trough.

(1)The S&P 500 Index is a leading indicator par excellence. Since
the 1950s, the Index has always peaked before the peak of a business cycle, with
the 1980 business cycle being the only exception. The Index has established a
trough prior to the end of a recession without exception.
(2)The median percentage decline of the Index from its peak to trough was 16.9%.

Are We Already in a Recession?

This article makes the case that we are already in a recession as of December of last year.

At the beginning of each year I choose a theme for the forecast issue. This
year, it is "Recession and Recovery." I think we've entered a recession. As I've
been writing for over a year, I think this will be a mild recession, but the
recovery period will be prolonged and slow. My best guess now is that the
recovery will begin in the third quarter of this year. The National Bureau of
Economic Research is the final arbiter of when recessions begin and end.
However, it will be at least a year and more likely 18 months before they give
us a decision. By that time, we will be well on the road to recovery. So, let me
make my case that we are in recession.

J. Michels Video Game Index 1/8/08

-$526.00 -1.18%

J. Michels Uranium Index 1/8/08

-$1,019.00 -1.80%

Predictions 2008: Entertainment and Sports

Entertainment:
1. The Writers Strike lasts almost until spring when sweeps week ends up forcing the studios to come to a settlement or face millions in losses for the year. American Idol brings people back to network TV but not for very long as ratings drop again right after it ends. A skinny, good looking black woman wins this year's Idol.

2. The Box Office is slightly up from 2007. Top 5 Movies of the Year in Box office order are: Indiana Jones, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, Batman the Dark Night, The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, Ironman.

3. Amy Winehouse nearly ODs and actually does "Go To Rehab." Her actual singing career is officially dead by the end of 2008.

4. The Britney Spears train wreck is in the news throughout 2008. She loses custody of her kids and ends up in rehab after wrecking her car. She also rumored to be dating a woman for a while. Her actual singing career is officially dead by the end of 2008.

5. Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt break up by the end of 2008. The custody battle for Shiloh dominates the news into 2009. While it is happening Jolie adopts another child from an impoverished country. Several other high profile breakups and the resulting custody fights are the major trend for 2008 and beyond.

6. Perez Hilton, Tila Tequila and other pseudo-celebrities become big stars and VH1 becomes a star vehicle as the writers continue to strike. The pseudo-celebrity band wagon becomes filled with questionable talent because the studios lack the scripts to do anything except for reality dating shows and game shows.


Sports:
1. The Chinese Olympics are a resounding success and they end up winning the most medals. There are some protests but they are mainly low key. The Chinese government ignores these protests for the most part and are happy that the Olympics were such a big success.

2. The winners of the major sports for 2008 are: NFL: New England Patriots, NBA: Boston Celtics, MLB: Boston Red Sox. Yup, 2008 is Boston's year.

3. The steroid mess dominates the entire 2008 baseball season. Barry Bonds is convicted of lying to the grand jury and is sent to jail by the end of 2008. OJ Simpson is also convicted and is sent to jail for 15 years.

Predictions 2008: World Events and the Economy

I'll put on my Nostradamus floppy hat and make with some 2008 predictions. These come right off the top of my head:

World Events:
1. Obama wins the election and becomes President in 2008

2. The war in Iraq drags on but a plurality of the troops are recalled and the Iraqi military takes over security duties. Many scores are settled but insurgents are dealt serious blows and become a non factor by the end of the year. Chaos continues for a while but starts to settle down by the end of 2008. Iraq becomes a page 3 story.

3. Iran agrees to a nuclear framework that is negotiated mainly by France and agrees to allow inspectors into their facilities. They continue nuclear bomb research in secret. Sarkozy wins the Nobel Peace Prize.

4. Musharraf forced out under international pressure after widely contested election and violent protests. Pakistan remains a smoldering trouble spot as Al-Quida and the Taliban tries to destabilize their government.

5. Obama attempts to put out feelers toward Al-Quida but is widely criticized for the move. There are no terror attacks in the US as Al-Quida turns to Pakistan and also fighting against the Americans in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is still a page 5 story and becomes the so-called forgotten war by the end of 2008.


Economy:
1. The subprime mess is widely contained but the economy slows noticeably in the first two quarters of 2008. The economy doesn't drop into recession but the market corrects 10% but ends up recovering by the end of the year. Congress bends over backwards to save people about to lose their homes to the tune of billions of dollars. It is a subprime bailout similar to the savings and loan bailout of the 80s.

2. Technology is a laggard for the year but the Google Phone is introduced to the same fanfare as the IPhone. Apple starts to sell movies and HD programming from their IStore.

3. Alternative Energy becomes the big buzzword for 2008 with Congress passing various bills aimed at reducing energy use and increasing subsidies. Solar, Wind, and Farming stocks become 2 and 3 baggers as oil stays stubbornly high. Ethanol Stocks still get rocked on oversupply concerns. However regular Energy Stocks end up outperforming after the correction even though they have their subsidies stripped. More nuclear plants are slated for construction in 2008 as the idea of nuclear power becomes more accepted due to examples set by both France and Japan. The idea of nuclear power becoming "green" begins to take shape.

4. Sovereign Wealth funds become this years Hedge Funds as they put their billions to work while the dollar remains very weak throughout 2008. There are several high profile attempted buyouts and 10% stakes put in by the Saudi's, the Chinese, and the UAE.

5. Health Care recovers very quickly after the correction but the concerns raised by Obama's health care plan causes volatility in the stocks throughout 2008. Dendreon is passed by the FDA on their preliminary data due to pressure by Congress. They start to market their product by mid-2009.

J. Michels Video Game Index 1/4/08

-1,457.30 -3.14%

J. Michels Uranium Index 1/4/08

-$2,810.00 -4.69%

Winners and Losers from the Iowa Caucus

I agree with this article that Obama was the big winner in Iowa.

Entrance polling showed Iowa Democrats responded strongly to Obama's message of change - half of Democrats said that the top quality they were looking for in a candidate was his or her ability to bring about change, and of those
respondents, 51 percent voted for Obama. The Illinois Democrat's campaign also
clearly benefited from the surge in Democratic turnout and from the
participation of Iowans who had never before caucused.

I think his theme of change over experience is going to resonate with voters far more then Hillary realizes. He is playing the "Optimistic America" card and he is playing it to the hilt. I listened to his victory speech and he sounded a lot like JFK in his delivery and his hope to make America a better place after the so-called Bush Years.

I think his message will ring true with Americans pinched by the subprime mess, food and gas inflation, and maybe facing a recession. Optimism and hope can be a very strong reason to vote for a guy like Obama. Hillary is starting to look more and more like the candidate of the same old approach. Also the fact that she lost women 35 to 30 to Obama should really trouble her. Maybe the Oprah factor is bigger then people might think.

Britney Spears finally loses it

It looks like they committed her after a police standoff involving her kids. I think this shot of her from A Socialite's Life pretty much sums up her whole downward spiral and this event will hopefully be the "thud" at the bottom. She needs some help ASAP. Otherwise the next gurney we see her on will be on will be headed to the LA County Morgue.

Huckabee WINS IOWA!!!!

Holy crap, the Incredible Huck won Iowa! And here he is with new Secretary of Kicking Asses!

Is There a Farmland Bubble?

This is a very interesting story on how farmland might be forming a bubble in certain states.

This time around, Leuthold sees a more moderate pullback -- 15% to 20% in
three to five years -- because buyers are employing less leverage and interest
rates are lower. His main concern is that the ethanol boom rests on shaky
economic underpinnings. Without government subsidies, ethanol makes no sense, he maintains. And the subsidies could disappear because of a backlash against costs of producing the fuel -- higher supermarket prices and huge demand on water supplies. The measure was opposed by groups representing the world's
undernourished and by competing agricultural interests like the National
Cattlemen's Beef Association. Big Oil dislikes the program, too, and Big Oil has
deep pockets to lobby Congress.

I agree with him up to a point but it is pretty much based on who controls Congress and the White House for the next 4 years. If the Dems control it all I would be willing to bet that they will keep the ethanol subsidies going in the name of a greener economy. I think Big Oil may be persona non grata if the Dems getting into power. I think that undernourished group may put some pressure on the Dems but not more then the Farmers Lobby would.

If the Republicans control it you may still get extreme pressure from those big red state Farmers but Big Oil might win out in the end depending on who wins the nod. In any case renewable energy is here to stay but how much the government will pay to subsidize it is the question.

J. Michels Video Game Index 1/3/08

+$45.30 +0.10%

J. Michels Uranium Index 1/3/08

+$1,145.00 +1.95%

Monsanto's Big Numbers

The more I read about the green economy the more I think companies like Monsanto will be winners going forward. It seems like they are showing us the money as well judging by these really good numbers which blew away analysts by 11 cents a share.

The St. Louis-based company, which manufactures bio-engineered seeds and
agricultural products, smashed Wall Street's expectations with its first quarter
profit report. On Thursday, Monsanto (nyse: MON
- news - people ) said profits surged 184.4% to $256 million, or 46 cents a share,
from $90 million, or 16 cents a share, for the year ago period. Meanwhile, sales
ticked up 36.4% to $2.1 billion, from $1.5 billion. Analysts expected profits of
35 cents a share on sales of $1.87 billion.