It seems that things are looking up for Dell now that they are dropping the extra bucks for shipping model and are selling in retail stores. I think many computer buyers don't care too much about customizing their PCs. They instead buy based on what they will use it for. So a person buying a "Media Center PC" would expect it to come with a bigger hard drive, DVD,
Media Center Edition of Windows, Remote Control etc. One interesting thing that came from this article is this:
Overall, PC shipments in the first quarter increased 12.3% compared with the first quarter of 2007, according to Gartner, despite fears that souring economic conditions might pinch PC sales.
"Home mobile PC growth continued to drive U.S. PC growth," said Gartner analyst Mika Kitagawa. "Despite declining consumer confidence, U.S. consumers did not put off mobile PC purchases as evidenced by solid mobile growth during the first quarter."
That sales growth was stimulated in party by aggressive price cuts, Kitagawa added.
Strong demand for laptop PCs resulted in strong than expected growth in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region as well as in the Asia Pacific region.
I thought growth would slow but 12.3% is pretty impressive. In fact this growth has surpassed last years 8.9% Worldwide PC shipments in the first quarter of 2007. The so-called worst recession since WWII seems to have not crimped PC demand just yet.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Crude Hits New High but API and EIA Numbers are Way Off
Now this is an interesting thing to ponder about crude oil supplies.
In a report released Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude inventories fell unexpectedly, down 2.3 million barrels to 313.7 million barrels in the week ended April 11. Analysts surveyed by energy information provider Platts expected an increase of 1.5 million barrels.
That seems all well and good for a bullish case for oil but this tidbit of knowledge has got me thinking.
Separately, the American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels to 317.9 million barrels in the week ending April 11. Distillate stocks fell by 939,000 barrels to 111.9 million barrels in the same period, while gasoline stocks dropped by 2.4 million barrels to 216.8 million barrels. The API, an association of the U.S. oil and natural gas industry, calculates inventories based on different criteria
That is a 4.8 million barrel discrepancy! How can one report say that inventories fell and the other report said they rose? The API report says that demand fell 1.4% and it was the third year of a decline in demand for oil from the US. Also that 85.2% gasoline utilization has been part of the high gas prices problem. Refineries seem to always have problems and it keeps driving up the gas prices.
Also looking at the EIA numbers you can see that the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) increased by 641,000 barrels. Why this amount doesn't stay the same or drop with $115 a barrel oil I have no idea. You figure they should keep this amount the same when oil prices are high or sell off some barrels to make a little cash. After looking at the numbers I'm still not sure why the API and the EIA numbers are so far off. All I know is demand has fallen so there is not as much oil imported. That should make the case for lower prices and not higher ones.
In a report released Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude inventories fell unexpectedly, down 2.3 million barrels to 313.7 million barrels in the week ended April 11. Analysts surveyed by energy information provider Platts expected an increase of 1.5 million barrels.
That seems all well and good for a bullish case for oil but this tidbit of knowledge has got me thinking.
Separately, the American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels to 317.9 million barrels in the week ending April 11. Distillate stocks fell by 939,000 barrels to 111.9 million barrels in the same period, while gasoline stocks dropped by 2.4 million barrels to 216.8 million barrels. The API, an association of the U.S. oil and natural gas industry, calculates inventories based on different criteria
That is a 4.8 million barrel discrepancy! How can one report say that inventories fell and the other report said they rose? The API report says that demand fell 1.4% and it was the third year of a decline in demand for oil from the US. Also that 85.2% gasoline utilization has been part of the high gas prices problem. Refineries seem to always have problems and it keeps driving up the gas prices.
Also looking at the EIA numbers you can see that the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) increased by 641,000 barrels. Why this amount doesn't stay the same or drop with $115 a barrel oil I have no idea. You figure they should keep this amount the same when oil prices are high or sell off some barrels to make a little cash. After looking at the numbers I'm still not sure why the API and the EIA numbers are so far off. All I know is demand has fallen so there is not as much oil imported. That should make the case for lower prices and not higher ones.
New X-Files Movie a stand alone
It seems the new X-Files movie which will be called The X-Files: I Want to Believe will be coming out July 25. It looks like they are going to make it a one-off story and it will have nothing to do with the Alien Hybrids, Black Oil, Smoking Man etc. They also seem to have pulled an X-Files to keep the script a secret as well.
"We went to almost comical lengths to keep the story a secret," Carter said. "That included allowing only the key crew members to read the script, and they had to read it in a room that had video cameras trained on them. It was a new experience."
"We went to almost comical lengths to keep the story a secret," Carter said. "That included allowing only the key crew members to read the script, and they had to read it in a room that had video cameras trained on them. It was a new experience."
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Ars Technica Likes the Blockbuster/Circuit City Buyout
Hmm, it seems that they are on board this strangest of buyouts.
From a consumer's point of view, we'd get movies and video games for sale or rent right next to a wide selection of the gadgets we'd need for playing them, followed by snacks and finger foods by the checkout counter. It's all about convenience and one-stop shopping, and I really think the concept could work. Convenience is still king, right?
I still have to disagree though. Most of the gadgets you need for playing the rented and bought DVDs/games are not quick one-off purchases. A Blue-Ray player is a good $400 and a HDTV is like $1000 or more. These aren't quicky impulse purchases like finger food or DVDs. They are something that a consumer puts a decent amount of thought into buying.
I could see a person perhaps buying a Blue-Ray player and then renting a few movies to watch on it at the same time. But would it be worth the mammoth amount of expense it would take to meld their two inventory systems together? It would give Blockbuster an excuse to close hundreds of stores by moving them into existing Circuit City's. That could save some money in the short term.
I'm also not sure about all this talk of the media convergence where the content and the device are connected somehow. I can only see something like this happening if Blockbuster sells DVRs or DVD players out of their Circuit City's preloaded with a video on demand service built into the device. It would kind of be like a TiVo preloaded with a connection to the Blockbuster Video on Demand Store.
A Blockbuster branded DVR would indeed be game changer if they could deliver HD movies quickly and easily to the home in some other way then via snail mail or by picking them up at the physical store. Maybe BlockBuster could create a version of BitTorrent optimized for downloading HD content which works by storing pieces of those giant files on 1000s of individual DVR devices installed into peoples homes.
So the service would work by having you pay a monthly fee of like $19.95 and then you buy the hardware for like $300 and hook it up to your broadband connection and away you go. You then would have all the HD content that you could watch on an HD-TV that you bought at Circuit City. This TV would be connected to a Blockbuster branded DVR that uses this BlockBuster BitTorrent Service. If they pull that off then you might be looking at the next Apple. Or the merged companies could fail miserably and go bankrupt. Which would make Netflix the last service standing.
From a consumer's point of view, we'd get movies and video games for sale or rent right next to a wide selection of the gadgets we'd need for playing them, followed by snacks and finger foods by the checkout counter. It's all about convenience and one-stop shopping, and I really think the concept could work. Convenience is still king, right?
I still have to disagree though. Most of the gadgets you need for playing the rented and bought DVDs/games are not quick one-off purchases. A Blue-Ray player is a good $400 and a HDTV is like $1000 or more. These aren't quicky impulse purchases like finger food or DVDs. They are something that a consumer puts a decent amount of thought into buying.
I could see a person perhaps buying a Blue-Ray player and then renting a few movies to watch on it at the same time. But would it be worth the mammoth amount of expense it would take to meld their two inventory systems together? It would give Blockbuster an excuse to close hundreds of stores by moving them into existing Circuit City's. That could save some money in the short term.
I'm also not sure about all this talk of the media convergence where the content and the device are connected somehow. I can only see something like this happening if Blockbuster sells DVRs or DVD players out of their Circuit City's preloaded with a video on demand service built into the device. It would kind of be like a TiVo preloaded with a connection to the Blockbuster Video on Demand Store.
A Blockbuster branded DVR would indeed be game changer if they could deliver HD movies quickly and easily to the home in some other way then via snail mail or by picking them up at the physical store. Maybe BlockBuster could create a version of BitTorrent optimized for downloading HD content which works by storing pieces of those giant files on 1000s of individual DVR devices installed into peoples homes.
So the service would work by having you pay a monthly fee of like $19.95 and then you buy the hardware for like $300 and hook it up to your broadband connection and away you go. You then would have all the HD content that you could watch on an HD-TV that you bought at Circuit City. This TV would be connected to a Blockbuster branded DVR that uses this BlockBuster BitTorrent Service. If they pull that off then you might be looking at the next Apple. Or the merged companies could fail miserably and go bankrupt. Which would make Netflix the last service standing.
Oil at $114: Time to Short Again?
I love it when oil jumps to record highs on flimsy "supply disruptions."
The oil report from the IEA — the Paris-based energy watchdog for industrialized countries — said Russia, the world's biggest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, averaged 10 million barrels per day from January through March, down 1 percent from 2007. That is the first time production has failed to exceed previous-year figures since 1998.
Artyom Konchin, an analyst with Russian investment bank Aton Capital, attributed Russia's oil supply lull to high taxes and insufficient reinvestment into infrastructure.
"It's not that we don't have enough oil," he said. "We just don't have enough capital going into developing the fields."
This news is great for oil infrastructure companies that the Russians will approach to spend some of their vast oil wealth to fix up their fields. So National Oilwell, Rowan, Schlumberger etc. its time to line up with your hand out for some of that Russian wealth.
It is true that the Russians are not running out of oil anytime soon. The price action can only be sustained if the Russians took another look at their oil supply and said that it was lower then what it had been previously. Since they didn't do that we have price raises backed with flimsy support again.
The oil report from the IEA — the Paris-based energy watchdog for industrialized countries — said Russia, the world's biggest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, averaged 10 million barrels per day from January through March, down 1 percent from 2007. That is the first time production has failed to exceed previous-year figures since 1998.
Artyom Konchin, an analyst with Russian investment bank Aton Capital, attributed Russia's oil supply lull to high taxes and insufficient reinvestment into infrastructure.
"It's not that we don't have enough oil," he said. "We just don't have enough capital going into developing the fields."
This news is great for oil infrastructure companies that the Russians will approach to spend some of their vast oil wealth to fix up their fields. So National Oilwell, Rowan, Schlumberger etc. its time to line up with your hand out for some of that Russian wealth.
It is true that the Russians are not running out of oil anytime soon. The price action can only be sustained if the Russians took another look at their oil supply and said that it was lower then what it had been previously. Since they didn't do that we have price raises backed with flimsy support again.
McCain Tax Relief Idea
This seems like some interesting stuff that he is proposing. He is also thinking about creating a gas tax holiday and stopping purchases into the strategic oil reserve as well.
Raise the tax exemption for each dependent child from $3,500 to $7,000. Aides estimated it would cost $65 billion over one year to double the tax exemption, but argued that McCain would offset such expenses by cutting federal spending.
_Require more affluent people — couples making more than $164,000 — enrolled in Medicare to pay a higher premium for their prescription drugs than less-wealthy people.
_Offer people the option of choosing a simpler tax system with two tax rates and a standard deduction instead of sticking with the current system.
_Suspend for one year all increases in discretionary spending for agencies other than those that cover the military and veterans while launching an expansive review of the effectiveness of federal programs. Aides estimated a one-year freeze would save $15 billion.
I guess the tax exemption for children is a good idea since it puts more money in the pocket of parents. I like the Medicare premium raises for wealthy people. The simpler tax system proposal is light-years better then the Obama "give us your personal documents and we'll do your taxes for you" crappy idea. I also like the spending freeze and effectiveness review idea as well. You have to see the pork before you can cut it.
Of course the Democratic camp is like a parrot that squakes the same thing over and over:
Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said McCain's proposals offer "no change from George Bush's failed policies by going full speed ahead with fiscally irresponsible tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans." Clinton policy director Neera Tanden called it "a George Bush-redux of corporate windfalls and tax cuts for the wealthy that will bankrupt our government and leave working families with the bill."
Braaak! Tax Cuts for the Wealthy, Braaak! Tax Cuts for the Wealthy. Giving Americans who are hurting financially some of their money back is not something the Dems should snub.
Raise the tax exemption for each dependent child from $3,500 to $7,000. Aides estimated it would cost $65 billion over one year to double the tax exemption, but argued that McCain would offset such expenses by cutting federal spending.
_Require more affluent people — couples making more than $164,000 — enrolled in Medicare to pay a higher premium for their prescription drugs than less-wealthy people.
_Offer people the option of choosing a simpler tax system with two tax rates and a standard deduction instead of sticking with the current system.
_Suspend for one year all increases in discretionary spending for agencies other than those that cover the military and veterans while launching an expansive review of the effectiveness of federal programs. Aides estimated a one-year freeze would save $15 billion.
I guess the tax exemption for children is a good idea since it puts more money in the pocket of parents. I like the Medicare premium raises for wealthy people. The simpler tax system proposal is light-years better then the Obama "give us your personal documents and we'll do your taxes for you" crappy idea. I also like the spending freeze and effectiveness review idea as well. You have to see the pork before you can cut it.
Of course the Democratic camp is like a parrot that squakes the same thing over and over:
Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said McCain's proposals offer "no change from George Bush's failed policies by going full speed ahead with fiscally irresponsible tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans." Clinton policy director Neera Tanden called it "a George Bush-redux of corporate windfalls and tax cuts for the wealthy that will bankrupt our government and leave working families with the bill."
Braaak! Tax Cuts for the Wealthy, Braaak! Tax Cuts for the Wealthy. Giving Americans who are hurting financially some of their money back is not something the Dems should snub.
Monday, April 14, 2008
Blockbuster Tried to Buyout Circuit City?
Now this would be an interesting but crazy sounding fit.
That brings me to Monday's rather stunning news that Blockbuster, the giant video chain that's seen better days, is trying to buy Circuit City, the giant consumer electronics retail chain that's also seen better days. The offer, which was made in February and is just now becoming public, is worth $6 to $8 per share--between $1 billion and $1.3 billion total. It's about a 54 percent premium above Circuit City's value before the news broke.
When I first read the news I thought it was Best Buy trying to buy Circuit City and dominate the electronics retailing landscape. Then I read closer and saw that it was Blockbuster instead and I could hardly believe it. It would be just like if Merck freaked out and bought out Continental Airlines just to "try something new."
However it would be an interesting example of a content provider trying to buy out a company that sells the gear to watch the content on. Like trying to form a cheapy Apple. Maybe Circuit Cities would turn into a hybrid store where you can rent videos on one floor and buy computer stuff, TVs, and DVDs on another. The article above throws water on this hybrid-thing competing with the Apple Stores.
I guess selling the Blue-Ray Player and renting out the the Blue-Ray DVDs at the same place is what Blockbuster was going for. Hmm, maybe Blockbuster was thinking about going into the Rent-To-Own type of Business where they would rent DVDs, video games, and even the DVD player and HD-TV at a high margin interest rates. In any case I think Blockbuster management should stick to turning the company around and ignore any further crazy merger mania.
That brings me to Monday's rather stunning news that Blockbuster, the giant video chain that's seen better days, is trying to buy Circuit City, the giant consumer electronics retail chain that's also seen better days. The offer, which was made in February and is just now becoming public, is worth $6 to $8 per share--between $1 billion and $1.3 billion total. It's about a 54 percent premium above Circuit City's value before the news broke.
When I first read the news I thought it was Best Buy trying to buy Circuit City and dominate the electronics retailing landscape. Then I read closer and saw that it was Blockbuster instead and I could hardly believe it. It would be just like if Merck freaked out and bought out Continental Airlines just to "try something new."
However it would be an interesting example of a content provider trying to buy out a company that sells the gear to watch the content on. Like trying to form a cheapy Apple. Maybe Circuit Cities would turn into a hybrid store where you can rent videos on one floor and buy computer stuff, TVs, and DVDs on another. The article above throws water on this hybrid-thing competing with the Apple Stores.
I guess selling the Blue-Ray Player and renting out the the Blue-Ray DVDs at the same place is what Blockbuster was going for. Hmm, maybe Blockbuster was thinking about going into the Rent-To-Own type of Business where they would rent DVDs, video games, and even the DVD player and HD-TV at a high margin interest rates. In any case I think Blockbuster management should stick to turning the company around and ignore any further crazy merger mania.
Obama "Clings" To Liberal Condescention
At least it seems so in his latest gaffe.
“You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them,” Obama said.
“And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”
I think rural Pennsylvanians "cling" to religion and guns because they enjoy going to church and going hunting. 25 years of economic distress is not pushing them into churches and making them rush to Wal-Mart to buy rifles. It is just what this particular group of Americans like to do with their spare time.
I guess Obama's San Fransisco liberal big-wig audience needs to be be given a reason why these people go and "worship invisible men the sky" and "love their guns." After all these things are bad to the "enlightened" liberal establishment. These gurus know what is actually good for these gun-toting, Bible-thumpin, Mexican-hating, globalization-fearing rubes.
Obama doesn't understand that a rural Pennsylvanian will still go to church and will still hunt with or without a huge government that taxes them to death and takes care of them cradle to grave. They vote GOP because the liberal elite challenges their way of life with their anti-gun laws, "death to Christmas" attacks, and support for an anti-religious lifestyle. This "look-down on the rubes" attitude is exactly why more people do not embrace liberal values. How can a person support someone that holds them in such contempt?
“You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them,” Obama said.
“And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”
I think rural Pennsylvanians "cling" to religion and guns because they enjoy going to church and going hunting. 25 years of economic distress is not pushing them into churches and making them rush to Wal-Mart to buy rifles. It is just what this particular group of Americans like to do with their spare time.
I guess Obama's San Fransisco liberal big-wig audience needs to be be given a reason why these people go and "worship invisible men the sky" and "love their guns." After all these things are bad to the "enlightened" liberal establishment. These gurus know what is actually good for these gun-toting, Bible-thumpin, Mexican-hating, globalization-fearing rubes.
Obama doesn't understand that a rural Pennsylvanian will still go to church and will still hunt with or without a huge government that taxes them to death and takes care of them cradle to grave. They vote GOP because the liberal elite challenges their way of life with their anti-gun laws, "death to Christmas" attacks, and support for an anti-religious lifestyle. This "look-down on the rubes" attitude is exactly why more people do not embrace liberal values. How can a person support someone that holds them in such contempt?
Carl Bernstein Lets Hillary Have it
Now this is one venom filled anti-Clinton rant from a lefty reporter.
It is exactly under such circumstances that she usually resorts to the worst excesses that mark her in full warrior-mode — and all its scorched-earth, truth-be-damned manifestations. Bosnia, anyone? Smearing the women involved (or even thought to be involved) sexually with her husband. Responding to Barack Obama with the same mindset, disdain, and arsenal as she did Karl Rove and Lee Atwater, as if Obama’s politics and methodologies were as mendacious and vicious as theirs–and her own. Tax information kept secret (in 1992 to hide her profits from trading in cattle futures; in 2008 to shield the identities of Bill’s foreign clients.) A campaign that openly boasts of throwing “the kitchen sink” at her opponent.
Yeah some of the stuff that she hits Obama with you might think he is a Republican and not a member of her own party. I guess she wants to be President even it is over the smoking ruin of her own party.
It is exactly under such circumstances that she usually resorts to the worst excesses that mark her in full warrior-mode — and all its scorched-earth, truth-be-damned manifestations. Bosnia, anyone? Smearing the women involved (or even thought to be involved) sexually with her husband. Responding to Barack Obama with the same mindset, disdain, and arsenal as she did Karl Rove and Lee Atwater, as if Obama’s politics and methodologies were as mendacious and vicious as theirs–and her own. Tax information kept secret (in 1992 to hide her profits from trading in cattle futures; in 2008 to shield the identities of Bill’s foreign clients.) A campaign that openly boasts of throwing “the kitchen sink” at her opponent.
Yeah some of the stuff that she hits Obama with you might think he is a Republican and not a member of her own party. I guess she wants to be President even it is over the smoking ruin of her own party.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Hot Girls should go for Ugly Guys: It's Science!
According to this study if a woman is looking for a lifelong mate then she should go for a man who is not as good looking as them. I don't need a study to say that ugly guys will treat a hot woman FAR better then a handsome guy would. Greatfulness is a powerful motivator. So I can see ugly guys wanting to support their hot wife in any way that they could just to keep her.
McNulty's team assessed 82 couples who had married within the previous six months and had been together for nearly three years prior to tying the knot. Participants were on average in their early to mid-20s.
Researchers videotaped as each spouse discussed with their partner a personal problem for 10 minutes. The tapes were analyzed for whether partners were supportive of spouses' issues, which included goals to eat healthier, to land a new job and to exercise more often.
"A negative husband would've said, 'This is your problem, you deal with it,'" McNulty said, "versus 'Hey, I'm here for you; what do you want me to do?; how can I help you?'"
A group of trained "coders" rated the facial attractiveness of each spouse on a scale from 1 to 10, with the perfect 10 representing the ultimate babe. About a third of the couples had a more attractive wife, a third a more attractive husband and the remaining partners showed matching looks.
Overall, wives and husbands behaved more positively when the woman was better looking.
McNulty's team assessed 82 couples who had married within the previous six months and had been together for nearly three years prior to tying the knot. Participants were on average in their early to mid-20s.
Researchers videotaped as each spouse discussed with their partner a personal problem for 10 minutes. The tapes were analyzed for whether partners were supportive of spouses' issues, which included goals to eat healthier, to land a new job and to exercise more often.
"A negative husband would've said, 'This is your problem, you deal with it,'" McNulty said, "versus 'Hey, I'm here for you; what do you want me to do?; how can I help you?'"
A group of trained "coders" rated the facial attractiveness of each spouse on a scale from 1 to 10, with the perfect 10 representing the ultimate babe. About a third of the couples had a more attractive wife, a third a more attractive husband and the remaining partners showed matching looks.
Overall, wives and husbands behaved more positively when the woman was better looking.
McCain and Obama Tied Head-to-Head
It seems that all of this controversy from the Obama camp has cost him his 10 point lead against McCain.
An AP-Ipsos poll taken in late February had Obama leading McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each. McCain leads Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents.
Clinton led McCain, 48-43 percent, in February. The latest survey showed the New York senator with 48 percent support to McCain's 45 percent. Factoring in the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, Clinton and McCain are statistically tied.
Hillary is now ahead of McCain in a head-to-head poll and Obama is tied. I wonder if her campaign will run with these numbers to prove that she is more electable then Obama? The more I think about it the more I think the Reverend Wright mess and the "big race debate" that followed is going to cost Obama this election.
An AP-Ipsos poll taken in late February had Obama leading McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each. McCain leads Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents.
Clinton led McCain, 48-43 percent, in February. The latest survey showed the New York senator with 48 percent support to McCain's 45 percent. Factoring in the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, Clinton and McCain are statistically tied.
Hillary is now ahead of McCain in a head-to-head poll and Obama is tied. I wonder if her campaign will run with these numbers to prove that she is more electable then Obama? The more I think about it the more I think the Reverend Wright mess and the "big race debate" that followed is going to cost Obama this election.
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Why We Can't Trust Socialized Medicine
It seems Hillary was caught passing on some lies about an pregnant Ohio woman that died because she couldn't afford a $100 copay but actually had insurance and could have been taken to emergency care instead. This article is case in point on what could go wrong if Obama/Hillary got their Health Care plans passed.
Perhaps Hillary should start telling the tale of Debbie Hirst, a British breast cancer patient whose cancer had metastasized. Her oncologist suggested a drug, Avastin, which is widely used in the U.S. and other European nations to prolong the life of cancer patients like her. But bureaucrats had decided that at $120,000 a year, prolonging Debbie Hirst's life would cost just too much money to be worth it. That's bad enough, but because the government is committed to "equal care" for all its patients, the bureaucrats went even further: They told Debbie Hirst that she had to choose between buying Avastin on her own, and receiving any health care from the government at all. She could not, in other words, mortgage her own home to buy a drug to save her own life without being penalized by the loss of all her other cancer care and drugs.
So it would then be up to some American beancounter to okay your life saving surgery or medicine or condemn you to death even if you had the $120K a year to keep you alive. So this spirit of "equal care" could actually strait up kill you no matter what you wanted to do with your own money. It would be a matter of everything being free and you have to wait and die or you get to pay for everything. That sounds like something America doesn't need.
Perhaps Hillary should start telling the tale of Debbie Hirst, a British breast cancer patient whose cancer had metastasized. Her oncologist suggested a drug, Avastin, which is widely used in the U.S. and other European nations to prolong the life of cancer patients like her. But bureaucrats had decided that at $120,000 a year, prolonging Debbie Hirst's life would cost just too much money to be worth it. That's bad enough, but because the government is committed to "equal care" for all its patients, the bureaucrats went even further: They told Debbie Hirst that she had to choose between buying Avastin on her own, and receiving any health care from the government at all. She could not, in other words, mortgage her own home to buy a drug to save her own life without being penalized by the loss of all her other cancer care and drugs.
So it would then be up to some American beancounter to okay your life saving surgery or medicine or condemn you to death even if you had the $120K a year to keep you alive. So this spirit of "equal care" could actually strait up kill you no matter what you wanted to do with your own money. It would be a matter of everything being free and you have to wait and die or you get to pay for everything. That sounds like something America doesn't need.
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
YouTube Beatings: ABC Quick to Show It
So these girls wanted to beat this other girl just to get famous on YouTube and then ABC goes ahead and shows the video thus making them famous.
The eight face felony battery and false imprisonment charges tied to the attack caught on tape and posted online for the world — and law enforcement — to see. The three teens accused of dumping the victim after the beating also face an additional felony kidnapping charge. Judd said he will urge the state prosecutor's office to charge all of the teens except the 14-year-old as adults.
So they are taking the story from the possible few thousand views of YouTube to a much larger audience for pretty much no reason at all. ABC News could have reported the thing with still photos or just showed the house where it took place. Instead they showed part of the actual video and then a mug shot gallery of the minor girls involved.
So the fame that the girls wanted from YouTube was immediately granted to them by ABC News instead. So the Main Stream Media gets yet another chance to make stars out of villains. I think the ABC News editor needs to use better judgement when it comes to this kind of thing.
The eight face felony battery and false imprisonment charges tied to the attack caught on tape and posted online for the world — and law enforcement — to see. The three teens accused of dumping the victim after the beating also face an additional felony kidnapping charge. Judd said he will urge the state prosecutor's office to charge all of the teens except the 14-year-old as adults.
So they are taking the story from the possible few thousand views of YouTube to a much larger audience for pretty much no reason at all. ABC News could have reported the thing with still photos or just showed the house where it took place. Instead they showed part of the actual video and then a mug shot gallery of the minor girls involved.
So the fame that the girls wanted from YouTube was immediately granted to them by ABC News instead. So the Main Stream Media gets yet another chance to make stars out of villains. I think the ABC News editor needs to use better judgement when it comes to this kind of thing.
Monday, April 07, 2008
Wyeth and Elan may have a $10 billion Alzheimer Blockbuster
At least if leaving the conflict-of-interest off of the test that they paid for doesn't come back to haunt them. The sciene however may be good and people are saying that this is the most advanced form of thereapy yet devised.
AAB-001 is probably the most advanced product for Alzheimer’s, Jenner explains. And we’re going to get information over the next two months that will tell us about the probability of its success in Phase 3 trials.
The market is excited because there are approximately 7 million Alzheimer’s patients in the US and Western Europe. If only 1 million of those individuals get on this therapy at $10,000/ year that’s a 10 billion dollar drug!
Wyeth is down in the dumps with only about 6 points above its 52 week low and trading at a 13 P/E. If the Phase 3 data is good and they get this testing matter turns out to be just an oversight and nothing outright shady then the stock should be at a new high before too long. Elan may have even more upside since they are still a pretty small player and seem to still be in that go-go growth phase.
AAB-001 is probably the most advanced product for Alzheimer’s, Jenner explains. And we’re going to get information over the next two months that will tell us about the probability of its success in Phase 3 trials.
The market is excited because there are approximately 7 million Alzheimer’s patients in the US and Western Europe. If only 1 million of those individuals get on this therapy at $10,000/ year that’s a 10 billion dollar drug!
Wyeth is down in the dumps with only about 6 points above its 52 week low and trading at a 13 P/E. If the Phase 3 data is good and they get this testing matter turns out to be just an oversight and nothing outright shady then the stock should be at a new high before too long. Elan may have even more upside since they are still a pretty small player and seem to still be in that go-go growth phase.
An Interesting Story on Schering-Plough's Damage Control
It seems like they had a Worst Case Scenerio file ready to implement if something like this happens. Too bad implementing it ended up costing people 5000 jobs. I think as soon as that Vytorin news dropped quite a few people at SGP had to update their resumes.
"We were building on each other's ideas, and I started to say we have to be more forceful in our response and more speedy," recalled Hassan, who said he spent Tuesday night back in New Jersey on the telephone with Robert Bertolini, the company's chief financial officer. Together they hashed out the broad outlines of spending cuts based on emergency plans the company keeps at the ready.
"We were building on each other's ideas, and I started to say we have to be more forceful in our response and more speedy," recalled Hassan, who said he spent Tuesday night back in New Jersey on the telephone with Robert Bertolini, the company's chief financial officer. Together they hashed out the broad outlines of spending cuts based on emergency plans the company keeps at the ready.
Elan and Wyeth Shady Dealings on Bapineuzumab Study
It seems that they paid the guy to develop this study and had it published as an "independent" study without disclosing his potential conflicts of interest. It seems like a case of moving the goalposts exactly where you want them to be.
To help make their point, Elan and Wyeth have cited the Archives of Neurology paper, titled "A Neuropsychological Test Battery for Use in Alzheimer Disease Clinical Trials," as independent, scientific proof that validates the NTB.
Harrison is the lead author of that NTB paper, but his role as a consultant paid by Elan and Wyeth to create the test is not disclosed in it. Harrison is the only author of six listed in the paper's conflict-of-interest statement as having no financial conflicts with Elan and Wyeth. Harrison's five co-authors are all employed by Elan or Wyeth.
To help make their point, Elan and Wyeth have cited the Archives of Neurology paper, titled "A Neuropsychological Test Battery for Use in Alzheimer Disease Clinical Trials," as independent, scientific proof that validates the NTB.
Harrison is the lead author of that NTB paper, but his role as a consultant paid by Elan and Wyeth to create the test is not disclosed in it. Harrison is the only author of six listed in the paper's conflict-of-interest statement as having no financial conflicts with Elan and Wyeth. Harrison's five co-authors are all employed by Elan or Wyeth.
Dick Vitale in the Hall of Fame Baby!
I guess Dicky V finally got his due. Some people dislike his style but he is one of the reasons why ESPN college basketball telecasts have become so popular.
Vitale was 78-30 coaching U-D from 1973-77, taking the Titans to the 1977 NCAA tournament. "If my career ended today, this would be the ultimate," said Vitale, who returned in February after a few months off to take care of growths on his vocal cords.After a year as U-D's athletic director he coached the Pistons during the entire 1978-79 season and the beginning of the following season.
Vitale was 78-30 coaching U-D from 1973-77, taking the Titans to the 1977 NCAA tournament. "If my career ended today, this would be the ultimate," said Vitale, who returned in February after a few months off to take care of growths on his vocal cords.After a year as U-D's athletic director he coached the Pistons during the entire 1978-79 season and the beginning of the following season.
Friday, April 04, 2008
We may have 80,000 troops in Iraq until 2010 if Obama is boss
At least that is the figure put out there by one of his key advisers.
Adviser Colin Kahl wrote in a policy paper for the Center for a New American Security that the United States should transition to an “over-watch” force of between 60,000 and 80,000 troops by the end of 2010, according to an article Friday in the New York Sun.
I guess Obama can just ignore the guy and start pulling people out by the end of 2008 no matter what the situation is on the ground. Maybe, someone in his camp is finally coming to the realization that you can't pull everyone out in 16 months and not have Iraq fall apart. Also these two things would be in such quick succession that they would be seen as a "cause and effect" type of thing.
Chaos in Iraq due to an early US pullout would be just in time for the midterm elections as well. The GOP tactic of saying that the "Dems lost the Iraq War" would be almost impossible to fight back against. I think Obama needs to tread lightly on Iraq unless the Dems want only 2 years to get any sort of "progressive agenda" passed.
Adviser Colin Kahl wrote in a policy paper for the Center for a New American Security that the United States should transition to an “over-watch” force of between 60,000 and 80,000 troops by the end of 2010, according to an article Friday in the New York Sun.
I guess Obama can just ignore the guy and start pulling people out by the end of 2008 no matter what the situation is on the ground. Maybe, someone in his camp is finally coming to the realization that you can't pull everyone out in 16 months and not have Iraq fall apart. Also these two things would be in such quick succession that they would be seen as a "cause and effect" type of thing.
Chaos in Iraq due to an early US pullout would be just in time for the midterm elections as well. The GOP tactic of saying that the "Dems lost the Iraq War" would be almost impossible to fight back against. I think Obama needs to tread lightly on Iraq unless the Dems want only 2 years to get any sort of "progressive agenda" passed.
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Christopher Dodd is an Idiot
Again the FED chairman and a whole bunch of CEOs have to waste their time before Congress to explain the Bear Stearns Buyout to them.
Was this a justified rescue to prevent a systemic collapse of financial markets or a $30 billion taxpayer bailout, as some have called it, for a Wall Street firm while people on Main Street struggle to pay their mortgages?" asked Sen. Christopher Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat who chairs the committee.
I think those Main Street people would really be hurting if Bear went bankrupt and the Stock Market fell by 1000+ points and took their IRAs with it. I'm sorry Mr. Mainstreet the FED sat on its hands and Bear went bankrupt so you won't be able to retire anytime soon.
The head of the banking committee should be aware of things like contra-party risks and what a capital crisis to a broker means. He makes it sound like the FED is bailing out "Wall Street fat cats" at the detriment of nebulous middle class folks instead of heading off what could have been a world financial crisis. You just can't trust a Democrat when it comes to money matters.
Was this a justified rescue to prevent a systemic collapse of financial markets or a $30 billion taxpayer bailout, as some have called it, for a Wall Street firm while people on Main Street struggle to pay their mortgages?" asked Sen. Christopher Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat who chairs the committee.
I think those Main Street people would really be hurting if Bear went bankrupt and the Stock Market fell by 1000+ points and took their IRAs with it. I'm sorry Mr. Mainstreet the FED sat on its hands and Bear went bankrupt so you won't be able to retire anytime soon.
The head of the banking committee should be aware of things like contra-party risks and what a capital crisis to a broker means. He makes it sound like the FED is bailing out "Wall Street fat cats" at the detriment of nebulous middle class folks instead of heading off what could have been a world financial crisis. You just can't trust a Democrat when it comes to money matters.
Wednesday, April 02, 2008
Sprints Hopes Rest on Crappy IPhone-like Item
It kind of sucks that a company that is so damaged that it can't roll out a game-changing technology like WiMax without begging for funds is pinning all their hopes on such an ugly device.
I mean it looks like an IPhone designed by a guy that makes plastic flanges for a living. Also those icons have to be some of the most boring ever created for an electronic device. Even the happy face above the word "Fun" makes me want to take a nap.
I figure after they pump $150 million into advertising this thing will probably sell about 1/3 of the amount that the IPhone does and be a big disaster for Sprint. It just looks like such a 2nd rate knock-off when you directly compare the two devices. I mean it looks crappy even if it was the first touch-phone produced instead of coming a year late to the party.
The Samsung Instinct will be available in June for a yet undetermined price, Sprint announced at CTIA Wireless, a cell-phone industry trade show in Las Vegas. Executives hinted that the price would be substantially lower than the $399 charged for the cheapest iPhone.
I mean it looks like an IPhone designed by a guy that makes plastic flanges for a living. Also those icons have to be some of the most boring ever created for an electronic device. Even the happy face above the word "Fun" makes me want to take a nap.
I figure after they pump $150 million into advertising this thing will probably sell about 1/3 of the amount that the IPhone does and be a big disaster for Sprint. It just looks like such a 2nd rate knock-off when you directly compare the two devices. I mean it looks crappy even if it was the first touch-phone produced instead of coming a year late to the party.
Schering-Plough Cutting Costs
Well, it didn't take SGP long to get out the Ax and start chopping.
The cuts will disproportionately hit the United States and will include everything from plant consolidations and streamlining of management to trimming overhead and spending on research and development, Chief Executive Officer Fred Hassan said in a conference call Wednesday evening.
He said the plan calls to reduce headcount by 10 percent worldwide and the goal is to make 80 percent of the $1.5 billion in total cuts by the end of 2010, with the rest by 2012. Schering-Plough currently has 55,000 employees, including 8,000 in New Jersey.
These cuts cannot come too soon but I think the company might be wounded severely unless they can come though on their pipeline. Most of the good stuff is only in phase II and only the anti-rhumatoid arthritus (golimumab) sounds like something that might hit the bottom line in the near future. I wonder if we will be seeing some single digits in this stock before too long?
The cuts will disproportionately hit the United States and will include everything from plant consolidations and streamlining of management to trimming overhead and spending on research and development, Chief Executive Officer Fred Hassan said in a conference call Wednesday evening.
He said the plan calls to reduce headcount by 10 percent worldwide and the goal is to make 80 percent of the $1.5 billion in total cuts by the end of 2010, with the rest by 2012. Schering-Plough currently has 55,000 employees, including 8,000 in New Jersey.
These cuts cannot come too soon but I think the company might be wounded severely unless they can come though on their pipeline. Most of the good stuff is only in phase II and only the anti-rhumatoid arthritus (golimumab) sounds like something that might hit the bottom line in the near future. I wonder if we will be seeing some single digits in this stock before too long?
RIMM Blows Away the numbers
I guess the slowdown does not affect the amount of Blackberrys sold by RIMM. I think this is the reason why they are up 5 points in the after hours:
In the first quarter RIM expects revenue to range from $2.23 billion to $2.3 billion and earnings to range of to 82 cents to 86 cents a share.
Analysts expect revenue of $2 billion and EPS of 75 cents in the quarter.
The classic blow the numbers out then guide way higher one-two punch. I think you might see a rally in tech tomorrow since Best Buy also did pretty well. I thought consumer spending was dead? I guess all of those Blueray DVDs, video games, and digital gadgets are more recession proof then you might think.
The company says it expects a solid second half to pull fiscal 2009 same-store sales up 1% to 3%, with overall revenue, including new stores, rising as much as 10% to $44 billion.
In the first quarter RIM expects revenue to range from $2.23 billion to $2.3 billion and earnings to range of to 82 cents to 86 cents a share.
Analysts expect revenue of $2 billion and EPS of 75 cents in the quarter.
The classic blow the numbers out then guide way higher one-two punch. I think you might see a rally in tech tomorrow since Best Buy also did pretty well. I thought consumer spending was dead? I guess all of those Blueray DVDs, video games, and digital gadgets are more recession proof then you might think.
The company says it expects a solid second half to pull fiscal 2009 same-store sales up 1% to 3%, with overall revenue, including new stores, rising as much as 10% to $44 billion.
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Again Congress Wantes to Rob the Oil Companies
I wonder why they don't get King Abdullah, Almadinajoke, and Hugo Chavez on the stand and grill them as well? Of course the oil companies are a nice soft target since they are making "record profits" and should be punished for some unknown reason. This must by Congresses idea of "doing something about the high price of oil." Grandstanding.
Executives from the largest U.S oil companies have been frequent targets of lawmakers, frustrated at not being able to do much to counter soaring oil and gasoline costs.
In November, 2005, Hofmeister and the top executives of the same companies represented Tuesday sat in a Senate hearing room to explain high prices and their huge profits.
About six months later, when the cost of the same barrel reached $75, the executives were grilled again on Capitol Hill on their spending and investment priorities.
Executives from the largest U.S oil companies have been frequent targets of lawmakers, frustrated at not being able to do much to counter soaring oil and gasoline costs.
In November, 2005, Hofmeister and the top executives of the same companies represented Tuesday sat in a Senate hearing room to explain high prices and their huge profits.
About six months later, when the cost of the same barrel reached $75, the executives were grilled again on Capitol Hill on their spending and investment priorities.
Hillary Finds her Funny Bone
I guess it was buried under a thick layer of humourless robotic parts. But I have to admit that this was a pretty funny April Fools Joke. After trundling to the podium with a tense look on her face she made with the funny.
"A bowling night. Right here in Pennsylvania. The winner take all," she went on. "I'll even spot him two frames."
"It is time for his campaign to get out of the gutter and allow all the pins to be counted. I'm prepared to play this game all the way to the tenth frame. When this game is over, the American people will know that when that phone rings at 3 a.m., they'll have a president ready to bowl on day one."
"Let's strike a deal and go bowling for delegates. We don't have a moment to spare, because it's already April Fool's Day. Happy April Fool's Day."
"A bowling night. Right here in Pennsylvania. The winner take all," she went on. "I'll even spot him two frames."
"It is time for his campaign to get out of the gutter and allow all the pins to be counted. I'm prepared to play this game all the way to the tenth frame. When this game is over, the American people will know that when that phone rings at 3 a.m., they'll have a president ready to bowl on day one."
"Let's strike a deal and go bowling for delegates. We don't have a moment to spare, because it's already April Fool's Day. Happy April Fool's Day."
Monday, March 31, 2008
Corn Acres to Drop; Soybeans to climb; Monsanto Might Smash Some Face
It might be another year of high corn prices because farmers are going to plant 7.6 million less acres of corn. However, it looks like it will be a banner year of soybeans:
Nationwide, soybean acreage is expected to jump 18 percent, to 74.8 million acres. This is an increase of 11.2 million acres from 2007 and is just 1 percent below 2006’s record high.
Acreage increases are expected in nearly every state, with the largest growth in Iowa, up 1.25 million acres, and Nebraska, up 1.2 million. Increases of at least 800,000 acres are anticipated in Indiana, Minnesota and South Dakota, while Kansas, New York and Pennsylvania are expected to plant their largest soybean crops in history.
I guess this is bad news for companies that make fertilizer since corn seems to use far more Potash and Nitrogen then Soybeans do.
However it should be great news for Monsanto since they have an almost monopoly position in bioengineered soybean seeds. In fact there may even be a soybean seed shortage in some parts of the country.
This may be great for margin expansion since Monsanto may have some strong pricing power if they crank out those seeds in a timely manner. Soybeans are planted in May so we won't get any sense of these numbers on Monsanto's bottom line until after that. In any case I am hoping for a pullback below the $100 mark so I can get long Monsanto.
Nationwide, soybean acreage is expected to jump 18 percent, to 74.8 million acres. This is an increase of 11.2 million acres from 2007 and is just 1 percent below 2006’s record high.
Acreage increases are expected in nearly every state, with the largest growth in Iowa, up 1.25 million acres, and Nebraska, up 1.2 million. Increases of at least 800,000 acres are anticipated in Indiana, Minnesota and South Dakota, while Kansas, New York and Pennsylvania are expected to plant their largest soybean crops in history.
I guess this is bad news for companies that make fertilizer since corn seems to use far more Potash and Nitrogen then Soybeans do.
However it should be great news for Monsanto since they have an almost monopoly position in bioengineered soybean seeds. In fact there may even be a soybean seed shortage in some parts of the country.
This may be great for margin expansion since Monsanto may have some strong pricing power if they crank out those seeds in a timely manner. Soybeans are planted in May so we won't get any sense of these numbers on Monsanto's bottom line until after that. In any case I am hoping for a pullback below the $100 mark so I can get long Monsanto.
Vytorin and Zetia Deemed No Better That Generic
I guess all of those ads on TV amounted to nothing in terms of stopping heart disease.
The cardiologists made the recommendation at a conference Sunday in Chicago, where researchers presented full results of the so-called "Enhance" study. The patient trial showed the drugs were no better than an older, cheaper drug at slowing artery thickening, despite
producing a greater drop in bad cholesterol levels.
I guess combining Zetia and Zocor which seemed like a way to end-around Zocor being made into a generic doesn't do anything in particular. It should be especially bad for Schering-Plough since a majority of their revenue came from sales of these drugs.
One thing I noticed was that if this $5 billion cut in sales number is to be believed SGP may be heading for bad times unless they tighten their belts considerably. You would figure that they would lose about $2 billion in sales and they could burn through their $2.2 billion in cash on their books in no time. The bad part is that they already have $9.48 billion in debt on their books so any slip-up could be disastrous for SGP.
I guess it is all up to how fast people dump these drugs for either the generic or their competitors. My guess is that it will be fairly fast since people are already facing high healthcare costs and the generic is pretty much does the same thing as Vytorin/Zetia but for much cheaper. SGP better have a great pipeline.
It should also be good for Pfizer's Lipitor and AstraZenica's Crestor. Those stocks may get the lions share of that $5 billion shortfall. Also it makes me wonder if they will be making a combo Lipitor/Crestor in the near future to dodge when they will become generic?
The cardiologists made the recommendation at a conference Sunday in Chicago, where researchers presented full results of the so-called "Enhance" study. The patient trial showed the drugs were no better than an older, cheaper drug at slowing artery thickening, despite
producing a greater drop in bad cholesterol levels.
I guess combining Zetia and Zocor which seemed like a way to end-around Zocor being made into a generic doesn't do anything in particular. It should be especially bad for Schering-Plough since a majority of their revenue came from sales of these drugs.
One thing I noticed was that if this $5 billion cut in sales number is to be believed SGP may be heading for bad times unless they tighten their belts considerably. You would figure that they would lose about $2 billion in sales and they could burn through their $2.2 billion in cash on their books in no time. The bad part is that they already have $9.48 billion in debt on their books so any slip-up could be disastrous for SGP.
I guess it is all up to how fast people dump these drugs for either the generic or their competitors. My guess is that it will be fairly fast since people are already facing high healthcare costs and the generic is pretty much does the same thing as Vytorin/Zetia but for much cheaper. SGP better have a great pipeline.
It should also be good for Pfizer's Lipitor and AstraZenica's Crestor. Those stocks may get the lions share of that $5 billion shortfall. Also it makes me wonder if they will be making a combo Lipitor/Crestor in the near future to dodge when they will become generic?
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Obama's Housing Market Fix Could Create a Banking Disaster
I recently read Obama's Housing Market fix and it is a big fat plan the kill the financial industry and is a $30 billion handout to housing speculators. Some of it even sounds dangerous to our fragile economy. It might even throw this country into a decades long depression. Also on reading it struck me that Obama hates the idea that taking on excessive risk (and not managing it) could cause you to lose a bunch of money or maybe even your house. However you could also make a ton of money as well. That is the nature of risk! In any case here we go point by point:
1. Provide the Federal Reserve with basic supervisory authority over any financial
institution to which it may make credit available as a lender of last resort.
I guess he wants the FED to actively check on what their borrowers of last resort do with their money. What sort of oversight does the FED have to do? Are they going to check the credit worthiness of the loans that that bank uses the FED money for? Will they be saying "this plan is just too risky for the FEDs money so Citigroup deny that loan?" Thus, the next Microsoft or Starbucks might just be getting their seed money from an Irish Bank and launching in Dubai instead of in the US. Good job, Obama you will made risk a dirty word and will have caused all the risk-takers to leave for greener pastures overseas.
2. Capital, liquidity and disclosure requirements should be developed and strengthened for all financial institutions.
So even more money will have to be set aside as capital requirements (and thus can't be loaned out,) and another layer of Sarbanes-Oxley nonsense will be put to banks in the future? I guess Obama wants to choke banks out and make it so that extending credit in the US a thing of the past. Also the idea of the Government looking over the shoulder of ratings agencies should be something that needs to be avoided. I guess the Government could take over as a ratings agency but isn't that like the bond issuer saying "yes our bonds are AAA *wink*?"
3. End our balkanized framework of overlapping and competing regulatory agencies.
I'm not sure if he simply wants to abolish the SEC, FDIC etc. or just roll them all into one complicated mega-agency? It seems like a pie-in-the-sky plan because those agencies are entrenched and some like the SEC are very effective at what they do. Also a vast agency will concentrate too much power into only a few hands. Finally, like any other mega-agency there will be fraud, waste, and abuse coming out of every pore.
4. Regulate financial institutions for what they do, rather than who they are.
I guess that is an interesting plan but you are punishing everyone for the excesses of a few. It is true that mortgage brokers like Countrywide originated these bad loans but why are we punishing the pension funds and the investment banks who just bought those bundled mortgages looking for a greater return for their shareholders? Also how can you regulate what something like an investment bank does? They are in so many parts of the economy that they would probably just move their headquarters to Dubai or something just to avoid the regulation morass.
5. Crack down on trading activity that crosses the line to market manipulation.
I think Obama needs to read what the SEC does on a daily basis. There might have been rumors swirling around Bear Stearns but no one could have stopped a canny trader from buying those $30 Puts on Wednesday and just following that 500K spike in volume and made money along with the big boys. You would have risked $15 a Put with a chance to make $1000s. Risk=Potential Reward Senator Obama.
6. Identify systemic risks to the financial system, no matter where they arise.
I guess this would be the department of reading minds or crystal balls or something. Maybe we can get Harry Potter to head it. I guess this puts the FED Chairman out of a job and allows Congress to grill some other poor fool about something they clearly do not understand themselves.
Create a New FHA Housing Security Program:
This looks like a strait prop-up that keeps housing prices going up and up artificially. If the I can get a government guarantee that I won't lose money in my home then sign me up. The trick is who is going to pay me for my home once I sell? A house is only worth what some other person would pay for the thing. If you bought at the wrong time you should not be rewarded.
Call on Lenders to Write Down Loan Amounts on More Conventional Borrowers at Risk:
So when house prices drop then the banks need eat the difference? That doesn't make any sense at all. This would mean that the banks take the risk that the prices would drop but the homeowner gets all the benefits. What happened to wait a few years until supply and demand get back into balance and then selling the home? You are underwater for a while but eventually things will pick back up. Markets are cyclical Senator Obama.
Close the Bankruptcy Loophole for Mortgage Companies:
So now we will have bankruptcy judges deciding on what interest rate would be fair in a bankruptcy proceeding? That doesn't make any sense. Bankrupt people with multiple homes and vacation homes usually have other revenue streams, securities, performing businesses etc. in order to pay off restructured mortgages. People that took on too much house and signed a no-money down ARM do not have anything left to pay the mortgage. Even if the thing was restructured they still couldn't pay for it.
Lower People’s Interest Payments by Creating a New Mortgage Interest Tax Credit:
This suggestion doesn't make any sense. This would provide a mechanism to get a tax credit even if you don't itemize deductions. What middle-class American with a mortgage doesn't itemize deductions? I think Obama has a pathological fear of itemizing taxes.
Provide an Additional $10 Billion of Mortgage Revenue Bond Authority:
He wants people who are lower income to buy a home? That also doesn't make any sense. People with low incomes usually don't have enough job security to keep up with 30 years worth of mortgage payments. We should be working on getting that low income person to become a high income person. They should be able to work for a decent company, start their own business, or aquire other skills. McDonalds has upper management that used to by fry cooks in just about every level of their company. They just had to work their asses off to get there.
Combat Mortgage Fraud and Predatory Subprime Loans: and
Mandate Accurate and Easy to Understand Loan Disclosure:
This seems like a laudable goal and should be pushed through. I think people not knowing what they were signing is what caused alot of this mess in the first place. Borrowers need to be given a point by point breakdown of how much they need to pay per month so that they aren't blindsided by ARMs in the future. So the borrower would see a table that has a cell that shows a 5% interest rate and you pay $900 a month, 6% interest you will pay $1100 a month, etc. That way people can budget and anticipate what they can afford before they sign any documents. If that McMansion causes them to pay $5K extra if the interest rate goes from 5% to 6% then the borrower needs to know that before he signs a single document.
Create a $10 Billion Foreclosure Prevention Fund to Help Americans Keep their Homes:
This allows people who bought too much house then they could afford keep their white elephant houses until they would be able to sell them. It looks like this would reward people for buying into the bubble instead of using sound fiscal constraint on what amount of house they could afford. So this pretty much amounts to Obama giving out billions for McMansion buyers and rips off people who were fiscally smart.
Provide $10 Billion in Relief for State and Local Governments Hardest-Hit by Housing Crisis toPrevent Cuts in Critical Services:
So if you are in a high speculation state like California, Arizona, Nevada, or Florida then Obama is going to give you some free money. I think someone needs to tell the Senator that part of the home price drop was due to homebuilders building tons of supply and speculators providing the demand. That demand dried up quick and those areas are now ghost towns. So some of the hardest hit areas are in states that had very high rates of speculation. The homes that we are talking about are usually luxury homes that some speculator tried to flip and now cannot sell or had to walk away from.
Extend and Expand Unemployment Insurance: I was with him on this until the last part and then it became asinine. Extending unemployment insurance to part-time workers makes no sense at all and would make quite a few high school and college kids suddenly able to claim unemployment. I guess this is to prepare the next generation of Americans be able to climb aboard the Obama hand-out wagon.
1. Provide the Federal Reserve with basic supervisory authority over any financial
institution to which it may make credit available as a lender of last resort.
I guess he wants the FED to actively check on what their borrowers of last resort do with their money. What sort of oversight does the FED have to do? Are they going to check the credit worthiness of the loans that that bank uses the FED money for? Will they be saying "this plan is just too risky for the FEDs money so Citigroup deny that loan?" Thus, the next Microsoft or Starbucks might just be getting their seed money from an Irish Bank and launching in Dubai instead of in the US. Good job, Obama you will made risk a dirty word and will have caused all the risk-takers to leave for greener pastures overseas.
2. Capital, liquidity and disclosure requirements should be developed and strengthened for all financial institutions.
So even more money will have to be set aside as capital requirements (and thus can't be loaned out,) and another layer of Sarbanes-Oxley nonsense will be put to banks in the future? I guess Obama wants to choke banks out and make it so that extending credit in the US a thing of the past. Also the idea of the Government looking over the shoulder of ratings agencies should be something that needs to be avoided. I guess the Government could take over as a ratings agency but isn't that like the bond issuer saying "yes our bonds are AAA *wink*?"
3. End our balkanized framework of overlapping and competing regulatory agencies.
I'm not sure if he simply wants to abolish the SEC, FDIC etc. or just roll them all into one complicated mega-agency? It seems like a pie-in-the-sky plan because those agencies are entrenched and some like the SEC are very effective at what they do. Also a vast agency will concentrate too much power into only a few hands. Finally, like any other mega-agency there will be fraud, waste, and abuse coming out of every pore.
4. Regulate financial institutions for what they do, rather than who they are.
I guess that is an interesting plan but you are punishing everyone for the excesses of a few. It is true that mortgage brokers like Countrywide originated these bad loans but why are we punishing the pension funds and the investment banks who just bought those bundled mortgages looking for a greater return for their shareholders? Also how can you regulate what something like an investment bank does? They are in so many parts of the economy that they would probably just move their headquarters to Dubai or something just to avoid the regulation morass.
5. Crack down on trading activity that crosses the line to market manipulation.
I think Obama needs to read what the SEC does on a daily basis. There might have been rumors swirling around Bear Stearns but no one could have stopped a canny trader from buying those $30 Puts on Wednesday and just following that 500K spike in volume and made money along with the big boys. You would have risked $15 a Put with a chance to make $1000s. Risk=Potential Reward Senator Obama.
6. Identify systemic risks to the financial system, no matter where they arise.
I guess this would be the department of reading minds or crystal balls or something. Maybe we can get Harry Potter to head it. I guess this puts the FED Chairman out of a job and allows Congress to grill some other poor fool about something they clearly do not understand themselves.
Create a New FHA Housing Security Program:
This looks like a strait prop-up that keeps housing prices going up and up artificially. If the I can get a government guarantee that I won't lose money in my home then sign me up. The trick is who is going to pay me for my home once I sell? A house is only worth what some other person would pay for the thing. If you bought at the wrong time you should not be rewarded.
Call on Lenders to Write Down Loan Amounts on More Conventional Borrowers at Risk:
So when house prices drop then the banks need eat the difference? That doesn't make any sense at all. This would mean that the banks take the risk that the prices would drop but the homeowner gets all the benefits. What happened to wait a few years until supply and demand get back into balance and then selling the home? You are underwater for a while but eventually things will pick back up. Markets are cyclical Senator Obama.
Close the Bankruptcy Loophole for Mortgage Companies:
So now we will have bankruptcy judges deciding on what interest rate would be fair in a bankruptcy proceeding? That doesn't make any sense. Bankrupt people with multiple homes and vacation homes usually have other revenue streams, securities, performing businesses etc. in order to pay off restructured mortgages. People that took on too much house and signed a no-money down ARM do not have anything left to pay the mortgage. Even if the thing was restructured they still couldn't pay for it.
Lower People’s Interest Payments by Creating a New Mortgage Interest Tax Credit:
This suggestion doesn't make any sense. This would provide a mechanism to get a tax credit even if you don't itemize deductions. What middle-class American with a mortgage doesn't itemize deductions? I think Obama has a pathological fear of itemizing taxes.
Provide an Additional $10 Billion of Mortgage Revenue Bond Authority:
He wants people who are lower income to buy a home? That also doesn't make any sense. People with low incomes usually don't have enough job security to keep up with 30 years worth of mortgage payments. We should be working on getting that low income person to become a high income person. They should be able to work for a decent company, start their own business, or aquire other skills. McDonalds has upper management that used to by fry cooks in just about every level of their company. They just had to work their asses off to get there.
Combat Mortgage Fraud and Predatory Subprime Loans: and
Mandate Accurate and Easy to Understand Loan Disclosure:
This seems like a laudable goal and should be pushed through. I think people not knowing what they were signing is what caused alot of this mess in the first place. Borrowers need to be given a point by point breakdown of how much they need to pay per month so that they aren't blindsided by ARMs in the future. So the borrower would see a table that has a cell that shows a 5% interest rate and you pay $900 a month, 6% interest you will pay $1100 a month, etc. That way people can budget and anticipate what they can afford before they sign any documents. If that McMansion causes them to pay $5K extra if the interest rate goes from 5% to 6% then the borrower needs to know that before he signs a single document.
Create a $10 Billion Foreclosure Prevention Fund to Help Americans Keep their Homes:
This allows people who bought too much house then they could afford keep their white elephant houses until they would be able to sell them. It looks like this would reward people for buying into the bubble instead of using sound fiscal constraint on what amount of house they could afford. So this pretty much amounts to Obama giving out billions for McMansion buyers and rips off people who were fiscally smart.
Provide $10 Billion in Relief for State and Local Governments Hardest-Hit by Housing Crisis toPrevent Cuts in Critical Services:
So if you are in a high speculation state like California, Arizona, Nevada, or Florida then Obama is going to give you some free money. I think someone needs to tell the Senator that part of the home price drop was due to homebuilders building tons of supply and speculators providing the demand. That demand dried up quick and those areas are now ghost towns. So some of the hardest hit areas are in states that had very high rates of speculation. The homes that we are talking about are usually luxury homes that some speculator tried to flip and now cannot sell or had to walk away from.
Extend and Expand Unemployment Insurance: I was with him on this until the last part and then it became asinine. Extending unemployment insurance to part-time workers makes no sense at all and would make quite a few high school and college kids suddenly able to claim unemployment. I guess this is to prepare the next generation of Americans be able to climb aboard the Obama hand-out wagon.
Obama Decries "Ethic of Greed" Then Goes to Fundraiser
The bad thing is he went to the fundraiser in a room that that greed paid for.
He basically said you greedy bastards got us into this mess now give me your money. Too bad Obama didn't blame one very important party that is part and parcel of the foreclosure mess. That would be the homebuyer. These people took on too much house, didn't know that an no-money down ARM would eventually cause them to pay a rate above their heads, and treated their houses like ATMs.
You can also blame those house-flippers that thought home prices would rise forever and took on 10 loans to buy 10 houses when they couldn't afford to pay the mortgage on one. These speculators and high risk homebuyers are just as complicit in the mortgage mess as greedy businessmen and complacent politicians.
Barack Obama went to New York Thursday and blamed lobbyists, greedy
businessmen and complacent Washington politicians for creating “an ethic of
greed” that led to today’s foreclosure crisis.
Not long after he left the stage, the Democratic presidential hopeful attended a fundraiser held by his campaign in a room in the Manhattan headquarters of Credit Suisse, one of the major investment companies caught up in the subprime lending mess.
He basically said you greedy bastards got us into this mess now give me your money. Too bad Obama didn't blame one very important party that is part and parcel of the foreclosure mess. That would be the homebuyer. These people took on too much house, didn't know that an no-money down ARM would eventually cause them to pay a rate above their heads, and treated their houses like ATMs.
You can also blame those house-flippers that thought home prices would rise forever and took on 10 loans to buy 10 houses when they couldn't afford to pay the mortgage on one. These speculators and high risk homebuyers are just as complicit in the mortgage mess as greedy businessmen and complacent politicians.
Why Reverend Wright has Scuttled Obama in my Eyes
This is a great look at the Wright issue from a lefty blog that I usually dislike quite a bit but this poster I actually agree with:
Reverend Wright blows this notion up by providing a message that seems to preach anything but hope and cooperation at least from black America toward white America. His other sermons may have been about Christian values but saying things like "the government created the AIDS virus to kill blacks" undermines that message. Wright brings up the angry race hatred that Obama was supposed to be a step away from.
The funny thing is Obama even had me seriously thinking about liberal canards like universal health care by making them seem like something that a "new and hopeful" America should try. I was willing to hear him out if he came up with a decent way to pay for it. He could say stuff like "a great country such as ours should have health care for the poorest of our citizens" and make it sound like something worth paying for. He could sell things like this without a guilt-trip but a "hope-trip."
But when Obamas spiritual mentor says "God Damn America" it is hard to get on board something like that. Obama has been fairly or unfairly lumped in with the "hate America first" wing of the Democratic party. The more I look at it the more I think the YouTube clips of Reverend Wrights sermons might just be the "Dean Scream" of his campaign.
Obama's doing a great job of telling us what's wrong about Bush's
presidency - which appeals to the left. He's also offering an emotionally
powerful idea of hope and cooperation - which appeals to everyone, including
Republicans.
Obama is the Democratic Reagan. The Dems for Reagan voted
not for his right-wing policies, but for his message of optimism.
That's why Republicans will vote for Obama in the fall, and he might even win a
landslide.
Reverend Wright blows this notion up by providing a message that seems to preach anything but hope and cooperation at least from black America toward white America. His other sermons may have been about Christian values but saying things like "the government created the AIDS virus to kill blacks" undermines that message. Wright brings up the angry race hatred that Obama was supposed to be a step away from.
The funny thing is Obama even had me seriously thinking about liberal canards like universal health care by making them seem like something that a "new and hopeful" America should try. I was willing to hear him out if he came up with a decent way to pay for it. He could say stuff like "a great country such as ours should have health care for the poorest of our citizens" and make it sound like something worth paying for. He could sell things like this without a guilt-trip but a "hope-trip."
But when Obamas spiritual mentor says "God Damn America" it is hard to get on board something like that. Obama has been fairly or unfairly lumped in with the "hate America first" wing of the Democratic party. The more I look at it the more I think the YouTube clips of Reverend Wrights sermons might just be the "Dean Scream" of his campaign.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Yamana Gold Approached with Tender Offer
Hmm, this seems kind of strange to me.
Why would they approach Yamana with such a low-ball offer? Were they simply hoping that the company would just accept a below-the-market price? I guess TRC Capital was hoping to build a large position in the stock but wanted to do it under the radar.
I wonder why they couldn't simply wait until the stock dropped into their range and started buying little by little like most funds do? In any case I still think that the market is undervaluing the price of gold when it comes to Yamana's shares. So maybe that was TRC Capitals was thinking when they approached them with the offer.
YAMANA GOLD INC. announced that it has received a copy of an unsolicited
below market "mini-tender" offer made by TRC Capital Corporation, pursuant to
which TRC Capital has offered to purchase up to 3,000,000, or approximately 0.48 percent of the outstanding common shares of Yamana. The offer price of C$15.75 per common share represents a 1.87 percent and 1.68 percent discount,
respectively, to the C$16.05 and US$15.70.
Why would they approach Yamana with such a low-ball offer? Were they simply hoping that the company would just accept a below-the-market price? I guess TRC Capital was hoping to build a large position in the stock but wanted to do it under the radar.
I wonder why they couldn't simply wait until the stock dropped into their range and started buying little by little like most funds do? In any case I still think that the market is undervaluing the price of gold when it comes to Yamana's shares. So maybe that was TRC Capitals was thinking when they approached them with the offer.
Google Paid Clicks Up 3%
It seems that growth may have slowed at Google but these numbers seem very hard to interpret and seem to be contradicted by other sources.
So is the February paid click-rate up 3% or 29% in February? Can Comscore be trusted to give decent measures or do we trust an ad placement firm instead? I would be willing to side more with the ad placement firm because they are actually getting money to place the ads on Google. In any case I guess we won't know for sure until Google brings out its numbers on April 17th.
Web search marketing firm SearchIgnite, which places $300 million in ads on
behalf of large- and mid-sized advertisers and their ad agencies, says its own
data shows Google's year-to-year paid click rate growing 29.0 percent in
February.
So is the February paid click-rate up 3% or 29% in February? Can Comscore be trusted to give decent measures or do we trust an ad placement firm instead? I would be willing to side more with the ad placement firm because they are actually getting money to place the ads on Google. In any case I guess we won't know for sure until Google brings out its numbers on April 17th.
Monday, March 24, 2008
Mexico now 2nd Fatest Nation
I think America's fatness is one of our key exports now.
I wonder how diabetes has passed heart disease as the top cause of death? Is it a genetic thing or what? In any case I think Mexico may be heading for a health crisis in a few years if that many Mexicans are obese.
More than 71 percent of Mexican women and 66 percent of Mexican men are
overweight, according to the latest national surveys.
With diabetes now Mexico's leading cause of death, activists and leaders hope to renew efforts to crack down on junk food and other fatty-food consumption and encourage citizens to exercise more.
I wonder how diabetes has passed heart disease as the top cause of death? Is it a genetic thing or what? In any case I think Mexico may be heading for a health crisis in a few years if that many Mexicans are obese.
Googles White Space for Wireless Plan
Sounds like a good idea from the good people at Google.
Yeah most of those channels are just worthless snow and if they can be turned into a viable cheap wireless category it would be great for everyone. I think it will get a lot more people to try wireless broadband if it was easily available.
I wonder if Google is planning to add national wireless carrier to their business ideas? I would switch to a Google branded wireless connection in a heartbeat even if I had to pay like $25 a month for it. The Verizon Wireless plan is an idiotically high $59.99 a month. I mean the Koreans pay only $17.60 a month for their wireless broadband why should we have to pay 5 times more?
"As Google has pointed out previously, the vast majority of viable
spectrum in this country simply goes unused, or else is grossly
underutilized," Richard Whitt, Google's Washington telecom and media lawyer,
wrote in the letter. "Unlike other natural resources, there is no benefit to
allowing this spectrum to lie fallow."
Google said the white space, located between channels 2 and 51 on
TV sets that aren't hooked up to satellite or cable services, offer a
"once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to provide ubiquitous wireless broadband access
to all Americans."
Yeah most of those channels are just worthless snow and if they can be turned into a viable cheap wireless category it would be great for everyone. I think it will get a lot more people to try wireless broadband if it was easily available.
I wonder if Google is planning to add national wireless carrier to their business ideas? I would switch to a Google branded wireless connection in a heartbeat even if I had to pay like $25 a month for it. The Verizon Wireless plan is an idiotically high $59.99 a month. I mean the Koreans pay only $17.60 a month for their wireless broadband why should we have to pay 5 times more?
A Response to Dollar Weakness
Here is another article that talks about how being long commodities and short the dollar may be a bad place to be going forward.
There are just too many factors against further dollar weakness to keep it sustainable. Despite what the goldbugs say there are real supply and demand fundamentals to the price of gold. I mean quite a bit of current gold sales are going to ETFs now and not jewelry creation like it is supposed to. I agree with the premise that much of the dollar weakness has been self-inflicted and can be changed with sound fiscal policy and investment leadership in alternative energy. I mean the idea of a "Moonshot for Green Energy" could potentially bring trillions into the US.
Our debt to GDP ratios are still amongst best in the developed world, and a
few mere changes of government policy with respect to entitlement
sustainability, tax policy, energy and food subsidization, and redirection of
war spending to local infrastructure improvement can easily usher an era of US
broad economic leadership.
There are just too many factors against further dollar weakness to keep it sustainable. Despite what the goldbugs say there are real supply and demand fundamentals to the price of gold. I mean quite a bit of current gold sales are going to ETFs now and not jewelry creation like it is supposed to. I agree with the premise that much of the dollar weakness has been self-inflicted and can be changed with sound fiscal policy and investment leadership in alternative energy. I mean the idea of a "Moonshot for Green Energy" could potentially bring trillions into the US.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Starbucks Ordered to Pay Tips
It seems that Starbucks might get a $106 million dollar haircut if this verdict stands.
I guess Starbucks had it so that shift supervisors would dip into the tip jar instead of being paid a higher wage by Starbucks higher-ups. I wonder if other service industries are this way as well. It would suck for a waitress/waiter to have to share her tips with their supervisor because the restaurant they worked for wanted to keep their salary costs down.
The lawsuit was filed in October 2004 by Jou Chou, a former Starbucks
barista in La Jolla, who complained shift supervisors were sharing in employee
tips.
The lawsuit gained ground in 2006 when it was granted class-action
status, allowing the suit to go forward for as many as 100,000 former and
current baristas in the coffee chain's California stores.
I guess Starbucks had it so that shift supervisors would dip into the tip jar instead of being paid a higher wage by Starbucks higher-ups. I wonder if other service industries are this way as well. It would suck for a waitress/waiter to have to share her tips with their supervisor because the restaurant they worked for wanted to keep their salary costs down.
Weird Wildlife Found in Antarctic waters
It seems like there is some weird stuff living in the Ross Sea up in the antarctic.
It sounds like a D&D sort of environment. It would be the kind of thing you would see in a Ocean Giants abode under a frozen sea. Kind of something above the Spine of the World in FR.
Large sea spiders, jellyfish with 12-foot tentacles, huge sea snails
and starfish the size of big food platters were found during a 50-day voyage,
marine scientist Don Robertson said.
Cold temperatures, a small number of predators, high levels of oxygen
in the sea water and even longevity could explain the size of some specimens,
said Robertson, a scientist with NIWA.
It sounds like a D&D sort of environment. It would be the kind of thing you would see in a Ocean Giants abode under a frozen sea. Kind of something above the Spine of the World in FR.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
A Battle for Bear Stearns?
It seems that that $2 a share offer by JPM is getting some billionaires riled up.
Wow, each of these guys lots a billion dollars on that deal? Talk about needing to diversify your portfolio a bit. In the meantime the stock keeps going up. It went from $3.76 to $5.90 in the past two days. This would be the scary part though if I was holding Bear Stock though. So you would either get $2 or nothing. I would have gone with selling at $5.90 and got out while I still could.
The Wall Street Journal reports British billionaire Joe Lewis is trying
to amass support among investors looking for an alternative to the JP Morgan
(JPM) takeover. According to Bloomberg, the Bear debacle has cost Lewis $1.19
billion - almost half his net worth. He called the $2 per share offer
"derisory."
Other Bear shareholders, such as hedge fund Thunderstorm Capital and
former Bear chairman Jimmy Cayne, are reportedly teaming up with Lewis to oppose the merger. Cayne is said to have lost almost a billion dollars since Bear's
stock price peaked at $171.51 last year.
Wow, each of these guys lots a billion dollars on that deal? Talk about needing to diversify your portfolio a bit. In the meantime the stock keeps going up. It went from $3.76 to $5.90 in the past two days. This would be the scary part though if I was holding Bear Stock though. So you would either get $2 or nothing. I would have gone with selling at $5.90 and got out while I still could.
On the other hand, fighting the deal in the hopes of a better bid is a
long shot, as the merger was written to preclude counteroffers. Blocking the
deal risks bankruptcy proceedings that could put equity holders at risk of
losing everything.
Hillary Passes Obama in Latest Poll
It seems that Hillary is starting to pass him again.
I think the idea of having an America hating preacher as spiritual mentor to the President just doesn't sit well with Democrats. The Dems are always have trouble looking patriotic and it would be easy for McCain to exploit this perceived anti-American bent of the far left in order to beat Obama.
The March 14-18 national survey of 1,209 Democratic andI think it is because of those statements brought to light about the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. This kind of talk about race and the "original sin of slavery," Jim Crow, etc. just doesn't play well with color-aware Democrats.
Democratic-leaning voters gave Clinton, a New York senator, a 49 percent to 42
percent edge over Obama, an Illinois senator. The poll has an error margin of 3
percentage points.
I think the idea of having an America hating preacher as spiritual mentor to the President just doesn't sit well with Democrats. The Dems are always have trouble looking patriotic and it would be easy for McCain to exploit this perceived anti-American bent of the far left in order to beat Obama.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Time to go Short Oil?
As I have been thinking recently it seems that oil and other commodities are finally starting to go back to the downside.
I was thinking that record oil prices were mostly speculation and did not reflect actual supply and demand of oil at all. It seems to be the same way in the gold market as well. They are all contingent on further dollar weakness and I don't see that happening with the FED hopefully done lowering rates for a while. We saw the dollar rise a bit against the Euro and the Yen today and I think dollar should be getting stronger as we go along.
Jeff Macke advised viewers to sell the U.S. Oil FundETF and the
streetTracks Gold Shares ETF.
Give those names a break, he said. As the Federal Reserve thinks of
other means besides lowering interest rates to solve the liquidity crisis,
commodities won't be as good of an inflation play, he said.
I was thinking that record oil prices were mostly speculation and did not reflect actual supply and demand of oil at all. It seems to be the same way in the gold market as well. They are all contingent on further dollar weakness and I don't see that happening with the FED hopefully done lowering rates for a while. We saw the dollar rise a bit against the Euro and the Yen today and I think dollar should be getting stronger as we go along.
Heather Mills is a Scumbag
The more I read about this case the more it looks like she just strait-up robbed Paul McCartney. Check out this line item in her attempted $250 million money grab.
This should show you why celebrities force people to sign prenups. Greedy gold-diggers like Mills should be rightly ridiculed when when they call themselves "activists" just to fly around in helicopters and private planes. I hope she gets booed when she judges the Miss USA Pageant.
Mills, a self-proclaimed activist, also claimed she would need $1.25 millionYup, she tried to get $1.25 million a year to charities and then tried to take 79% of the money to fly around in helicopters and jets to get to "appearances." Why doesn't she just give the entire amount to charities and causes and fly coach instead?
a year to give to charities, but admitted she would be using $985,000 of that
amount for traveling to appearances via helicopters and private jets.
This should show you why celebrities force people to sign prenups. Greedy gold-diggers like Mills should be rightly ridiculed when when they call themselves "activists" just to fly around in helicopters and private planes. I hope she gets booed when she judges the Miss USA Pageant.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Visa Sets Record IPO at $17.8 billion
It looks like it will be priced at $44 a share and has the ticker symbol V.
I'm hoping if it pops off of the opening it will only go to about $60 or so. Or maybe it will just stay in the $50 range for most of the day. However, anything less then $50 is going to be a steal. After all MasterCard IPOed at about $45 or so IIRC and it is now trading at $210.25. I think Visa will be even bigger then MasterCard. In Visa you still have all of the fees while the banks get to shoulder the risks.
Visa Priced the hotly anticipated offering of 406 million shares at $44 a
share, topping the previously estimated range of $37 to $42 a share. Visa shares
will trade on the New York Stock Exchange starting Wednesday, under the symbol V.
I'm hoping if it pops off of the opening it will only go to about $60 or so. Or maybe it will just stay in the $50 range for most of the day. However, anything less then $50 is going to be a steal. After all MasterCard IPOed at about $45 or so IIRC and it is now trading at $210.25. I think Visa will be even bigger then MasterCard. In Visa you still have all of the fees while the banks get to shoulder the risks.
Obama Brings Up the Race Issue
I guess this is all to deflect the venom spewed by Rev. Jeremiah Wright. I'm glad Obama was quick to condemn that sort of hate speech.
I think Wright forgot that the Democratic Truman Administration was the ones that decided to drop the bomb that ended WW2. Also the same Truman administration recognized Israel as well and advocated their right of self-defence against terror. Also it was the Reagan Administration that imposed economic sanctions on South Africa in a bid to end Apartheid.
Finally, all of these things (the support of Israel was just an Al-Quida scapegoat) had nothing to do with 9/11 at all. In fact I hope someone tells Rev. Wright that it wasn't Japanese, or Palestinians or Black South Africans that flew those planes into those buildings.
"We bombed Hiroshima, we bombed Nagasaki, and we nuked far more than the
thousands in New York and the Pentagon, and we never batted an eye," Wright
said. "We have supported state terrorism against the Palestinians and black
South Africans, and now we are indignant because the stuff we have done overseas is now brought right back to our own front yards. America's chickens are coming home to roost."
I think Wright forgot that the Democratic Truman Administration was the ones that decided to drop the bomb that ended WW2. Also the same Truman administration recognized Israel as well and advocated their right of self-defence against terror. Also it was the Reagan Administration that imposed economic sanctions on South Africa in a bid to end Apartheid.
Finally, all of these things (the support of Israel was just an Al-Quida scapegoat) had nothing to do with 9/11 at all. In fact I hope someone tells Rev. Wright that it wasn't Japanese, or Palestinians or Black South Africans that flew those planes into those buildings.
Monday, March 17, 2008
How to Turn $825,000 into $138 Million in 4 days
At least that is what one canny trader managed to pull off on Bear Stearns meltdown.
Those March $30 Puts are now worth $25.10 each. I think someone with a handle on how bad things were at Bear was able to put on some serious insurance. Or it could have been one of their counterparties who was getting ready to pull the plug on their trades and then rode the stock right down.
Too bad I didn't catch this trade because if I jumped on for a reasonable 10 contracts ($150) I could have made a cool $25,100. Of course you could have also taken billionaire currency trader Joe Lewis' side of the trade and took a $1 billion dollar smack in the chops as well.
This past Tuesday, when Bear Stearns(BSC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr)
was trading around $65 a share, there was huge put volume in the March $30
strike.
Over 55,000 contracts traded that day at an average price of
15 cents a contract. This is an extremely unusual trade in terms of the number
of contracts and how far out-of-the money those options were at the time. This
begs the question of why someone would execute such a transaction.
Those March $30 Puts are now worth $25.10 each. I think someone with a handle on how bad things were at Bear was able to put on some serious insurance. Or it could have been one of their counterparties who was getting ready to pull the plug on their trades and then rode the stock right down.
Too bad I didn't catch this trade because if I jumped on for a reasonable 10 contracts ($150) I could have made a cool $25,100. Of course you could have also taken billionaire currency trader Joe Lewis' side of the trade and took a $1 billion dollar smack in the chops as well.
JP Morgan's Bear Buyout a Reward for Canny Risk Management
Hmm, this article makes a lot of sense.
JP Morgan got the bargain price because they were shrewd and avoided the risks that Bear was taking on. They managed their risks like a investment bank is supposed to do. So they came out of it without any CDO dirt on their books. Then the government tosses JPM a bone and the firm accepts the offer only if that toxic debt doesn't come onto JPMs balance sheet.
If it was JPM taking big risks for big yields like Bear did then someone else would be buying JPM out instead. I mean JPM paid $236.2 million for a company whose headquarters building itself is worth more then $1.2 billion. JPM has some real risk-adverse deal makers in house. I think JPM may turn out to be a pretty good long once this credit mess blows over.
You can't accuse the government of bailing out Bear Stearns in any
traditional sense here. This is much more nuanced and, in the end, interesting.
Can you accuse the government, by contrast, of picking sides? Of siding with a
stronger, more conservative player against a weak and reckless one? Certainly.
They are punishing Bear while trying to salvage a bit of it not to mention
stability in the financial markets. And they are rewarding a better player.
That's the interesting aspect to the non-bailout nature of the 2 bucks and what
renders recycled story lines worth even less than Bear Stearns itself.
JP Morgan got the bargain price because they were shrewd and avoided the risks that Bear was taking on. They managed their risks like a investment bank is supposed to do. So they came out of it without any CDO dirt on their books. Then the government tosses JPM a bone and the firm accepts the offer only if that toxic debt doesn't come onto JPMs balance sheet.
If it was JPM taking big risks for big yields like Bear did then someone else would be buying JPM out instead. I mean JPM paid $236.2 million for a company whose headquarters building itself is worth more then $1.2 billion. JPM has some real risk-adverse deal makers in house. I think JPM may turn out to be a pretty good long once this credit mess blows over.
Visa IPO Wednesday 3/19
I hope I get a chance to pick up Visa on the cheap. I'm hoping for a down day to drive the price down so I can load up big. I think this might be one of those rare IPOs that goes ape in a few years like Google or MasterCard.
Visa has filed to sell 406 million Class A common shares at $37 to $42
apiece, for proceeds of $15 billion to $17 billion.
If demand is strong, an
additional 40 million shares could sell, pushing proceeds as high as $19
billion. Even at the low end of expectations, the IPO would set a record in the
United States, beating out AT&T's $10.6 billion deal in 2000.
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Dems Stick it to the Middle Class Again
Don't the Dems know that it is the Middle Class that is losing their houses and can barely afford to send their kids to college?
So this would catch millions of Americans and force them to shell out another $1911 per family per year while they are incurring piles of debt. I guess that Obama middle class tax cut of $500 for singles and $1000 for families is the same thing as a store having a $100 off sale and then raising their prices by $300. One step forward and three steps back.
An extra $159.25 a month paid out in taxes might be a back breaker for many families. I thought they were supposed to be getting rid of so-called "tax cuts for the rich." I guess rich in the Democratic mind starts at $31,850 a year.
Under both Democratic plans, tax rates would increase by 3 percentage points
for each of the 25%, 28% and 33% brackets. At present, the 25% bracket begins at $31,850 for individuals and $63,700 for married couples. The 35% bracket on
incomes over $349,700 would jump to 39.6%.
So this would catch millions of Americans and force them to shell out another $1911 per family per year while they are incurring piles of debt. I guess that Obama middle class tax cut of $500 for singles and $1000 for families is the same thing as a store having a $100 off sale and then raising their prices by $300. One step forward and three steps back.
An extra $159.25 a month paid out in taxes might be a back breaker for many families. I thought they were supposed to be getting rid of so-called "tax cuts for the rich." I guess rich in the Democratic mind starts at $31,850 a year.
Yankee's Try out Crystal at DH
Now they are trying some untested 59 year old named Billy Crystal at DH? He worked a 3-1 count before being struck out by a Pittsburgh lefty.
Man, if you can foul off a MLB pitchers fastball at 59 then you really are something special. If it was me though I would have crowded the plate and try to get plunked. At least I would have gotten the chance to run the bases. With my luck though I would probably get hit in the head and then taken off the field on a stretcher.
Yet despite the knockout, Crystal can walk into his next film shoot with
a couple of things to brag about. For one, he fouled off the second pitch
down the first base line. For another, he made guys like me now wonder if we
could do the same thing. Yeah, that's jealousy talking. Anyone else feeling
a little green after watching him take a few hacks?
Man, if you can foul off a MLB pitchers fastball at 59 then you really are something special. If it was me though I would have crowded the plate and try to get plunked. At least I would have gotten the chance to run the bases. With my luck though I would probably get hit in the head and then taken off the field on a stretcher.
The Strange Thing About Retail Sales Numbers
I was looking at the Retail Sales being off by .6 percent and decided to dive into the numbers a bit. It is true that Retail Sales are off by .6 percent from January to February but if you go from year to year the 2 month sales are actually up 5.8% and if you put Auto Sales in there they are up 7.4%.
From this time last year the only patches of retail spending that are actually down year to year are cars and car parts, furniture, building materials and garden supplies, and department stores. You can chalk furniture and building materials to the housing slowdown. While on the other hand some stuff is up quite a bit. Grocery Stores are up 7.7%. Health and Personal Care stores are up 6.3%, sporting goods/hobby/books/music stores are up 8.2%.
While Gas Stations are up a whopping 25% year to year they actually dropped from January 08 to February 08. Could this mean that high gas prices are starting the crimp demand? Too bad there isn't an advanced look at March numbers because I really want to see if gas station sales start to drop off or not due to the even higher gasoline prices.
From this time last year the only patches of retail spending that are actually down year to year are cars and car parts, furniture, building materials and garden supplies, and department stores. You can chalk furniture and building materials to the housing slowdown. While on the other hand some stuff is up quite a bit. Grocery Stores are up 7.7%. Health and Personal Care stores are up 6.3%, sporting goods/hobby/books/music stores are up 8.2%.
While Gas Stations are up a whopping 25% year to year they actually dropped from January 08 to February 08. Could this mean that high gas prices are starting the crimp demand? Too bad there isn't an advanced look at March numbers because I really want to see if gas station sales start to drop off or not due to the even higher gasoline prices.
Dendreon Loss Greater and they Amended Provenge SPA
It seems they lost a little more then Wall Street Expected but beat on the revenue line.
They also made some changes to the IMPACT study:
The company reported a fourth-quarter loss of $27 million, or 32 cents a
share, swelled from $21.5 million, or 28 cents a share, in the comparable 2006
period. Quarterly revenue fell to $28,000 from $86,000 a year earlier.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had predicted a narrower loss of 25
cents a share, with revenue of $12,000.
They also made some changes to the IMPACT study:
Under the new conditions, the interim analysis is still scheduled forI hate how the FDA terms deaths as "events." Just call them deaths and don't invent a neutral term for them like this. If the FDA appoved Provenge like their advisory committee recommended in March then more people will have had their "events" pushed back for a few months or even years.
the second half of 2008 but it will require a greater number of events (deaths)
and will have higher statistical powering.
I think the Dollar Has Hit Bottom
You always get these kinds of stories when something has hit bottom and is on the way back up.
What about just converting your dollars into Euros and buying the antiques in the currency that the French use? If he is so afraid of currency risk then he should hedge his currency like any other businessman who takes "trips to Paris flea markets" has to do. Instead he just wants his customers to foot the bill and take the risks for him.
In Manhattan's Bowery district, Billy LeRoy, the owner of Billy's Antiques
& Props, prefers payment in euros so he can stockpile the currency for his
annual antique buying trip to Paris."Whip out dollars at the French flea
market now, and they'll shoo you away," he said at his store near apartment
buildings where Europeans are snapping up units because they've become dirt
cheap. "Before it was like the second coming of Christ, but now they don't want
it or if they do take dollars, they're going to take their pound of flesh."
What about just converting your dollars into Euros and buying the antiques in the currency that the French use? If he is so afraid of currency risk then he should hedge his currency like any other businessman who takes "trips to Paris flea markets" has to do. Instead he just wants his customers to foot the bill and take the risks for him.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Obama Wins Mississippi: Reuters Points out Obvious
I think the media also pushes the idea that since Obama is black and he has strong black support that is the only reason why he is still winning. This Reuters article is a case in point:
They need to foster the myth that if Obama was white then Hillary would have sewn it all up and the media would be correct in their assumptions. They can't admit that Obama is winning because he is a different, articulate, charismatic, and hopeful choice so they need to pin it on his race.
Obama, who would be the first black U.S. president, rode a wave ofI think it is common knowledge that he would be the first black President and that Mississippi like any other Southern state has a large amount of blacks but Reuters must point it out again and again. Maybe the media draws this conclusion in order to make sense of why Hillary went from shoo-in to "fighting for her life" so quickly.
heavy black support to victory and extended his lead over Clinton in pledged
delegates to the August nominating convention. The Illinois senator also won on
Saturday in Wyoming.
They need to foster the myth that if Obama was white then Hillary would have sewn it all up and the media would be correct in their assumptions. They can't admit that Obama is winning because he is a different, articulate, charismatic, and hopeful choice so they need to pin it on his race.
Ferraro Says Obama Being Black Got Him This Far
It seems that the Obama campaign wants to force her to resign because of what she said:
I have to agree with her though when she says that if Obama was a generic white male candidate (John Edwards) then he wouldn't have gotten the *Democratic* nod over Hillary. The Dems have always been the "color-conscious party" instead of the "color-blind" party.
The Dems always seem to make race and issue by repeatedly calling Obama the "black candidate" over and over again. I can tell by looking at a picture of him that he might be a "black candidate" the Dems do not need to point it out over-and-over again. Americans have seen a black person run for other sorts of office before.
However, I would be willing to bet even-money that only the media would be talking about their race if Condoleezza Rice or Colin Powell ran on the Republican ticket. Republicans would be talking about Rice and Powells conservative bonafides and whether they would be electable with the "Bush-deficit" hanging over them. Race would be about the last thing on Republican's minds in a discussion of a Rice or Powell candidacy.
After all, the Republican party has been a pro-black party since its inception in 1854. It was the Democrats who were the Segregationists (George Wallace,) the Klu Klux Klan members (Robert Byrd,) and voted in the Jim Crow laws (Plessy v. Ferguson.) If not for Nixon's "Southern Strategy" blacks would still have a Republican majority to this day.
Ferraro, who sits on Clinton's finance committee and has spoken at herThat is one of the main problems with the Democrats it seems. Everything seems to stem from race in their thinking. Obama got to this position because he is a good speaker, he actually inspires people, and he might actually win the Presidency because he is a fresh face and not just more of the same like Hillary.
rallies, sparked the firestorm when she was quoted by a California newspaper
as saying: "If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this
position."
I have to agree with her though when she says that if Obama was a generic white male candidate (John Edwards) then he wouldn't have gotten the *Democratic* nod over Hillary. The Dems have always been the "color-conscious party" instead of the "color-blind" party.
The Dems always seem to make race and issue by repeatedly calling Obama the "black candidate" over and over again. I can tell by looking at a picture of him that he might be a "black candidate" the Dems do not need to point it out over-and-over again. Americans have seen a black person run for other sorts of office before.
However, I would be willing to bet even-money that only the media would be talking about their race if Condoleezza Rice or Colin Powell ran on the Republican ticket. Republicans would be talking about Rice and Powells conservative bonafides and whether they would be electable with the "Bush-deficit" hanging over them. Race would be about the last thing on Republican's minds in a discussion of a Rice or Powell candidacy.
After all, the Republican party has been a pro-black party since its inception in 1854. It was the Democrats who were the Segregationists (George Wallace,) the Klu Klux Klan members (Robert Byrd,) and voted in the Jim Crow laws (Plessy v. Ferguson.) If not for Nixon's "Southern Strategy" blacks would still have a Republican majority to this day.
Mary Ann Caught with Mary Jane?
I think she may have been growing some "medicinal herbs" on Gilligan Island. I love this series of fake-sounding excuses as well:
Wells said she'd just given a ride to three hitchhikers and had dropped them
off when they began smoking something. Gutierrez found half-smoked joints and
two small cases used to store marijuana.
Then she claimed:
Wells' lawyer, Ron Swafford, said that a friend of Wells' testifiedSo her lawyer, some hitchhikers, and and the heater all conspired to get her pinched on a drugs charge? She should just admit that they caught her red-handed and just do the time. This mug-shot is going to be a classic as well:
that he'd left a small amount of marijuana in the vehicle after using it that
day, and that Wells was unaware of it. Swafford also said several witnesses were
prepared to testify that Wells had very little to drink at the party and was not
intoxicated when she left. He said she was swerving on the road because she was
trying to find the heater controls in her new car.
GoogleClick a Reality
Well, Google finally closed the deal on DoubleClick so now they can start integrating the two companies at long last. It seems like a great new revenue driver for Google.
This idea of getting the total picture when it comes to data is very intriguing as well. They can leverage this information advantage for all sorts of interesting applications. I think this information would have great interest to historians as well. We could see how peoples internet usage could change over time and what people were actually interested in over the years. I think Google may be a great historical record going forward.
Even if an explicit integration doesn’t happen, a Wall Street analyst
estimates that Google will instantly gain a huge share of the graphical ad
market, which will reach an expected $28.6 billion by 2010. “Google will now
have behavioral data from search, e-mail, video, and web usage on network
sites,” JP Morgan analyst Imran Khan wrote in a report. “We believe this will
allow the company to provide much better ad targeting, leading to increased CPMs on DoubleClick sites.”
This idea of getting the total picture when it comes to data is very intriguing as well. They can leverage this information advantage for all sorts of interesting applications. I think this information would have great interest to historians as well. We could see how peoples internet usage could change over time and what people were actually interested in over the years. I think Google may be a great historical record going forward.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Zicasso Offers up Travel 2.0
Now this sounds like a very interesting way to sign up for a vacation.
So this is a travel agent listing service with a web 2.0 front end. You put in where you want to go, how you want to get there, then what you want to to see when you get there, and finally what activities you want to participate in and the site serves up a few targeted responses to choose from.
So if you want to go on a Civil War tour, with a side order of hiking, but stay in a 5 star hotel then the site serves up a few targeted choices for you. It sounds like a great idea because the travel agencies are reviewed only by people that used that agency in the past. It would be like reviews on Amazon only being open to people that already own the object.
It would be cool to book a trip to Germany for instance and be able to pick from several different agencies all with different options and prices based on my recommendations and have it all reviewed by people who have actually used the service in the past.
During the Web's evolution, though, the good ol'-fashioned practice of
enlisting a travel agent to build the perfect, well-informed trip has been left
behind. This lack of personal travel assistance is exactly what the new Web
2.0-powered travel service Zicasso is targeting.
So this is a travel agent listing service with a web 2.0 front end. You put in where you want to go, how you want to get there, then what you want to to see when you get there, and finally what activities you want to participate in and the site serves up a few targeted responses to choose from.
So if you want to go on a Civil War tour, with a side order of hiking, but stay in a 5 star hotel then the site serves up a few targeted choices for you. It sounds like a great idea because the travel agencies are reviewed only by people that used that agency in the past. It would be like reviews on Amazon only being open to people that already own the object.
It would be cool to book a trip to Germany for instance and be able to pick from several different agencies all with different options and prices based on my recommendations and have it all reviewed by people who have actually used the service in the past.
Cable Companies Provide Ad Clearinghouse
It seems like a pretty interesting idea and I cautiously applaud it.
I actually don't mind seeing ads on channels like G4 or Spike about video games or action movies. If I have to see an ad I don't mind seeing it for an item that I would actually be willing to buy. Hopefully, this same fine tuned control will make it so I don't have to see the same stupid Direct TV ad over and over during a sporting event.
It's easy to envision a future where STBs are fully addressable and custom
ads are served up based on what channels you watch at home. This could easily
get more sophisticated, selling different ads during times or days when a
household tends to watch "female" TV shows and times when "male" shows are tuned in. Will consumers welcome more relevant ads as a benefit?
I actually don't mind seeing ads on channels like G4 or Spike about video games or action movies. If I have to see an ad I don't mind seeing it for an item that I would actually be willing to buy. Hopefully, this same fine tuned control will make it so I don't have to see the same stupid Direct TV ad over and over during a sporting event.
Google Execs Talk About Paid Click "Shortfall"
These guys at Google need to come forward quicker to avoid this kind of thing.
So as many speculated they did this on purpose to provide a better value overall for advertisers. It wasn't some "economy-in-the-toilet and advertisers are running for the exits" type of thing after all. In any case I still think Google is a steal below its 52-week range and I'm going to double up on this thing before too long.
But speaking at the Bear Stearns Media Conference in Florida, Tim
Armstrong, Google's president of North America advertising and commerce, said
that the recent slowing in paid clicks "was intentional on our part" and will
result in "a long-term benefit for our business."
That's because recent quality initiatives at the company have
resulted in fewer unintentional clicks and a higher number of "conversions," or
revenue generated by intentional clicks, according to Armstrong.
"Conversions actually go up for advertisers, which is positive, but
there are less clicks overall," he said.
So as many speculated they did this on purpose to provide a better value overall for advertisers. It wasn't some "economy-in-the-toilet and advertisers are running for the exits" type of thing after all. In any case I still think Google is a steal below its 52-week range and I'm going to double up on this thing before too long.
19 Year Old Female Medic Wins Silver Star
It seems that women performing poorly in combat is another myth that has just been forgotten.
After the explosion, which wounded five soldiers in her unit, Brown ran
through insurgent gunfire and used her body to shield wounded comrades as
mortars fell less than 100 yards away, the military said.
"I did not really think about anything except for getting the guys to a safer location and getting them taken care of and getting them out of there," Brown told The Associated Press on Saturday at a U.S. base in the eastern province of Khost.
Of course groups like the NOW doesn't have a single thing praising (or even mentioning) the accomplishments of this heroic 19 year old girl. I hope this Spc. Brown can get some celebrity and maybe a movie deal out of this experience. Get that Olivia Thirlby (the friend in Juno) to play her. They actually look kind of similar if you give Thirlby blue contacts and dye her hair blond:
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Interesting Story on Steve Jobs
This article really makes him out to be a tyrant CEO with a cult-like following.
I guess you can use the words temperamental genius when you talk about him since he did turn a company on the verge of bankruptcy into one of the great consumer products companies of our age. And from reading this article he made just about every decision good or bad at the company (or at least took the credit for it.)
Jobs' personal abuses are also legend: He parks his Mercedes in handicapped
spaces, periodically reduces subordinates to tears, and fires employees in angry
tantrums. Yet many of his top deputies at Apple have worked with him for years,
and even some of those who have departed say that although it's often brutal and
Jobs hogs the credit, they've never done better work.
I guess you can use the words temperamental genius when you talk about him since he did turn a company on the verge of bankruptcy into one of the great consumer products companies of our age. And from reading this article he made just about every decision good or bad at the company (or at least took the credit for it.)
Ask.com out of the Search Game?
Now this is a very interesting development that I thought was a joke at first.
I always wished there was a TechSearch, a GamingSearch, a StockSearch, etc. type of site that specialized its searches to only that subject. The problem with Google is that you always end u sorting through alot of garbage in order to find what you wanted.
With a TechSearch site you would have links to online forums, white papers, tech company websites, driver information etc. So you would do a search for Laserjet Hp 4300 and you would get the HP.com link to the driver as the first hit, then troubleshooting information, and finally some links to CDW to buy the item if you want. I think some smart person at Google should come up with this as an ad-on to their search site to provide some built-in targeting to their searches. A TechGoogle, a GamerGoogle, a WomansGoogle, MensGoogle etc. would be really cool way to break their searches up.
In a dramatic about-face, Ask.com is abandoning its effort to outshineSo Ask.com is becoming a married woman's Q&A portal (I guess) instead of going for Googles scraps as the number 5 search engine. It does make sense since a married woman make alot of household purchasing decisions. This may be an interesting way to run a search company in general as well.
Internet search leader Google Inc. and will instead focus on a narrower market
consisting of married women looking for help managing their lives.
As part of the new direction outlined Tuesday, Ask will lay off about 40 employees, or 8 percent of its work force.
I always wished there was a TechSearch, a GamingSearch, a StockSearch, etc. type of site that specialized its searches to only that subject. The problem with Google is that you always end u sorting through alot of garbage in order to find what you wanted.
With a TechSearch site you would have links to online forums, white papers, tech company websites, driver information etc. So you would do a search for Laserjet Hp 4300 and you would get the HP.com link to the driver as the first hit, then troubleshooting information, and finally some links to CDW to buy the item if you want. I think some smart person at Google should come up with this as an ad-on to their search site to provide some built-in targeting to their searches. A TechGoogle, a GamerGoogle, a WomansGoogle, MensGoogle etc. would be really cool way to break their searches up.
Monday, March 03, 2008
Ebay Growth Slows to Trickle
Things are looking bleak at Ebay. In their case you get a triple hit:
1. Online auction leader eBay Inc warned in an annual report Friday that it faces difficulty getting former customers to return, adding to the normal challenge of attracting new users to its sites.
-First they can't get old users to come back as well as get new users to try the site. I think there are quite a few people out there that have 4-5 year old accounts and have maybe bought one or two things and then left. There is really no reason to come back to the site only to get sniped a few seconds before they are about to win a bid.
2.Adding to the risks in the coming year is expected weaker consumer spending in each of these three major markets, it said. At the same time, overall growth in the e-commerce market is expected to continue to decelerate, the company cautioned.
-I think that weaker consumer spending will hit Ebay right in the face. I don't think a consumer would go all out to buy a Hopalong Cassidy lunchbox when they can barely pay their mortgage. I also don't think e-commerce in general will weaken as much as they think. Thrifty people will still purchase things online if they can get free shipping or a 30% discount like on Amazon, Big Lots, etc. Consumers will still want to buy things and e-commerce will save that person on gas from going to the mall and provides them savings all in one.
3. Jeffries & Co analyst Youssef Squali said the pessimistic language eBay uses to describe its business prospects reflect a growing awareness that eBay is no longer the only game in town for merchants. Rivals such as Amazon.com are enjoying surging growth in its merchant business as eBay slows.
This one is the scariest things if you were long Ebay. When merchants leave your site they will probably not be coming back anytime soon. That is unless you cut your fees drastically. So you end up losing that person and have to cut margins to bring them back. These merchants may not even come back depending on what Amazon does to counter your fee cuts. I mean AMZN has a retail business to fall back on so they can afford to loss-lead while fees are Ebay's lifeblood.
The worst thing about Ebay is that the stock still seems to be overvalued. You end up paying a 102.17 P/E for 26% revenue growth that will keep dropping year over year unless they cut margin (or buy some non-core e-commerce growth) to compete. Also they end up losing buyers and have a hard time bringing in new ones as well. Add a further drop off in consumer spending and this stock might be in the mid-teens later this year.
1. Online auction leader eBay Inc warned in an annual report Friday that it faces difficulty getting former customers to return, adding to the normal challenge of attracting new users to its sites.
-First they can't get old users to come back as well as get new users to try the site. I think there are quite a few people out there that have 4-5 year old accounts and have maybe bought one or two things and then left. There is really no reason to come back to the site only to get sniped a few seconds before they are about to win a bid.
2.Adding to the risks in the coming year is expected weaker consumer spending in each of these three major markets, it said. At the same time, overall growth in the e-commerce market is expected to continue to decelerate, the company cautioned.
-I think that weaker consumer spending will hit Ebay right in the face. I don't think a consumer would go all out to buy a Hopalong Cassidy lunchbox when they can barely pay their mortgage. I also don't think e-commerce in general will weaken as much as they think. Thrifty people will still purchase things online if they can get free shipping or a 30% discount like on Amazon, Big Lots, etc. Consumers will still want to buy things and e-commerce will save that person on gas from going to the mall and provides them savings all in one.
3. Jeffries & Co analyst Youssef Squali said the pessimistic language eBay uses to describe its business prospects reflect a growing awareness that eBay is no longer the only game in town for merchants. Rivals such as Amazon.com are enjoying surging growth in its merchant business as eBay slows.
This one is the scariest things if you were long Ebay. When merchants leave your site they will probably not be coming back anytime soon. That is unless you cut your fees drastically. So you end up losing that person and have to cut margins to bring them back. These merchants may not even come back depending on what Amazon does to counter your fee cuts. I mean AMZN has a retail business to fall back on so they can afford to loss-lead while fees are Ebay's lifeblood.
The worst thing about Ebay is that the stock still seems to be overvalued. You end up paying a 102.17 P/E for 26% revenue growth that will keep dropping year over year unless they cut margin (or buy some non-core e-commerce growth) to compete. Also they end up losing buyers and have a hard time bringing in new ones as well. Add a further drop off in consumer spending and this stock might be in the mid-teens later this year.
The Bush Recession?
More anti-Bush ranting this time from Marketwatch.com.
No matter how badly Mr. Farrell wants these predictions to be "facts" they are not. I can predict $.20 or $10 a gallon gas but it doesn't make these predictions facts. When gas prices do reach $4 a gallon (it probably won't since demand is starting to slow) then lets call them facts.
These anti-Bush people will try anything to get a dig in on him. They will even resort to calling predictions facts. In any case I bet there will be tears running down their faces when they finally see him go. Once your hate is gone what do you have left?
Last week Bush told reporters: "I don't think we're headed to
recession." But when one tried to puncture the denial, mentioning that America's
energy analysts were predicting $4 gas, our oil-man president stopped him:
"Wait, what did you just say? You're predicting $4-a-gallon gasoline?" No, Mr.
President, experts are. "That's interesting. I hadn't heard that."
Once again, as in a classic tragedy, crucial facts never
quite make it to the king's chambers in time, setting the stage for a fateful
turn of events, propelling the plot to its tragic climax.
No matter how badly Mr. Farrell wants these predictions to be "facts" they are not. I can predict $.20 or $10 a gallon gas but it doesn't make these predictions facts. When gas prices do reach $4 a gallon (it probably won't since demand is starting to slow) then lets call them facts.
These anti-Bush people will try anything to get a dig in on him. They will even resort to calling predictions facts. In any case I bet there will be tears running down their faces when they finally see him go. Once your hate is gone what do you have left?
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